Development of projected depth-duration-frequency curves for precipitation in Florida, 2020–59 and 2050–89

The planning, permitting, and design of stormwater-management projects require estimates of the depths of extreme precipitation for current and future events with specified durations and return periods. In this project, precipitation data from six downscaled climate datasets were used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89. The downscaled climate datasets are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 and include (1) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), (2) Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA), (3) Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), (4) Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting model (JupiterWRF), (5) LOCA version 2 (LOCA2), and (6) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from a historical to future period—were computed for grid cells containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods were developed to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the periods 2020–59 and 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from six downscaled climate datasets.

Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally being greater than 1 and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were found to range within 1.01–1.58 for 2020–59 and 1.01–1.63 for 2050–89, depending on the downscaled climate dataset, region, duration, and return period, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme-precipitation events. When data from all datasets are considered together, median change factors range within 1.04–1.18 for the period 2020–59 and within 1.04–1.23 for the period 2050–89, depending on the region, duration, and return period. Spatial patterns in median change factors were found to vary by dataset.