Does presence of permanent fresh water affect recruitment in prairie-nesting dabbling ducks?

In the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North Dakota, USA, American mink (Mustela vison) are a major predator of ducklings. Mink populations plummet during severe droughts, but some mink survive where permanent fresh water is available. In 1992–1993, we evaluated whether development of a permanent water body, the 125-km McClusky Canal (MC), had affected survival of gadwall (Anas strepera) and mallard (A. platyrhynchos) broods and ducklings in surrounding wetland complexes. Twelve of 25 radiomarked gadwall and mallard hens experienced total brood loss, and 148 of 199 radiomarked ducklings from 58 broods died by day 30. Gadwall broods (n = 18 radiomarked hens) survived to 30 days at a lower rate (0.52) than predicted for similar areas in the region with limited permanent fresh water (0.85; P = 0.009). Observed (n = 162 radiomarked ducklings from 48 broods) survival rates also were lower than predicted for gadwall ducklings 0–7 days old (0.42 vs. 0.60; P < 0.001) and 8–30 days old (0.41 vs. 0.80; P < 0.001). We attempted to include mallards in models constructed to predict brood and duckling survival rates in the Koenig Study Area (KSA), but data were too sparse. Rates of survival to 30 days for gadwall and mallard ducklings declined from an estimated 0.83 and 0.68 in 1976–1981 (Lokemoen et al. 1990), when the MC was first filling with water, to 0.36 and 0.31 (adjusted for radiotransmitter effects) in 1992–1993 after the MC had become a permanent freshwater body. Estimated gadwall recruitment rate (females fledged per hen) during 1992–1993 was 0.5, <50% of the estimated recruitment rate in 1976–1981. Of 130 radiomarked ducklings (both species) for which we determined cause of death, 114 mortalities were attributed to predation; at least 65% of 62 deaths in which the predator type could be discerned were caused by mink. Environmental planners and waterfowl managers should be aware of potential risks to waterfowl production from development of permanent freshwater bodies in prairie pothole landscapes and may wish to refine duck productivity models to consider negative effects of permanent water on duckling survival.