Effects of climate change on outdoor recreation benefits in the Pike-San Isabel and Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forests

Millions of Americans enjoy recreating in the outdoors. In 2017, 49 percent of the United States (U.S.) population participated in at least one outdoor activity (Outdoor Foundation 2018). The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (2017) estimates there were 148 million visits to national forests during fiscal year 2016. In 2018, there were more than 318.2 million visits to national parks (Ziesler 2019). Across all national park units in Colorado, recreation visits totaled more than 7.6 million in 2018, the largest proportion of which were to Rocky Mountain National Park in northern Colorado - which shares a border with the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forests - with nearly 4.6 million visitors (Ziesler 2019).

Outdoor recreation provides significant economic contributions to the overall U.S. economy. The latest report from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates the outdoor recreation economy accounted for 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 (BEA 2019). The BEA (2019) also reports that the outdoor recreation economy grew slightly faster (1.7 percent) than the overall U.S. economy (1.6 percent). Boating and fishing were the outdoor recreation activities with the largest overall economic impact, accounting for \$36.9 billion of real gross output, in other words, the industry’s sales. The Outdoor Industry Association (2019) reports that the national outdoor recreation economy generates annually \$887 billion in consumer spending and supports 7.6 million American jobs. Additionally, it provides \$65.3 billion in Federal tax revenue and \$59.2 billion in state and local tax revenue.

Colorado’s outdoor recreation also provides a substantial contribution to the State economy. The Outdoor Industry Association (2019) reports that 71 percent of Colorado residents participate annually in outdoor recreation. Additionally, they report that outdoor recreation generates \$28 billion in consumer spending and provides $2 billion in State and local tax revenue. Outdoor recreation also supports 229,000 jobs in Colorado. The Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (2018) uses a broader definition of outdoor recreation to estimate economic output; for example, their definition includes activities such as team sports, golf, and playground activities. The implications of including a wider range of activities will result in larger estimated economic contributions from consumer spending. This report estimated that outdoor recreation contributes \$62.5 billion in total economic output (value of all sales of goods and services) and \$35 billion in value added (in other words, gross domestic product, or GDP). Furthermore, the Statewide Comprehensive Outdoor Recreation Plan (2018) report finds that outdoor recreation supports over 511,000 jobs in Colorado, when considering a broader definition of recreation activities.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado has one of the fastest growing populations among U.S. States, increasing 14.8 percent in population size between 2010 and 2020 (U.S. Census Bureau 2021). In 2020, Colorado’s population was more than 5.7 million residents (U.S. Census Bureau 2020); the Colorado State Demography Office predicts the State’s population to increase to more than 7.4 million people by 2050 (Colorado State Demography Office 2022; Colorado State Demography Office, n.d.). Most of the State’s population (more than 83 percent in 2020) lives along the Front Range, a relatively concentrated urban area situated near the foothills where the Great Plains meet the Rocky Mountains. This urban corridor takes its name from the nearby mountain range called the “Front Range” and spans roughly from Fort Collins (Larimer County) and Greeley (Weld County) in northern Colorado to Pueblo (Pueblo County) in the south. Most of the State’s projected population growth is expected to be concentrated along the Front Range urban corridor, with an estimated addition of more than 1.4 million people between 2010 to 2050 (Colorado State Demography Office 2022). With expected population growth, recreation visitation to national forests and other nearby public lands is expected to increase.

Considering outdoor recreation’s role of being economically and culturally important to Colorado, the State faces a series of challenges to forest management in the coming decades. Among these challenges are an expected increase in state population, effects of crowding, and the effects from a changing climate on availability of and access to outdoor recreation opportunities. Specifically, climate change is expected to have an impact to the region as temperatures are projected to increase in the future by 2.5 to 5.5 ᵒF as well as a snowpack decrease in the range of 10 to 40 percent (see Chapter 3 in this report). As a result, it can be expected that outdoor recreation may be affected by climate change via two drivers: first, through a direct effect on recreation demand, and second, through an indirect effect from the quantity and quality of environmental goods and services (Loomis and Crespi 1999; Mendelsohn and Markowski 1999; Shaw and Loomis 2008; White et al. 2016).

The overarching objective of this report is to investigate, from an economic perspective, current outdoor recreation use on the Arapaho-Roosevelt and Pike-San Isabel National Forests, and to consider what future outdoor recreation use may look like under the conditions of changing climate and a growing state population. In the next section of this report, supply of outdoor recreation on the AR and PSI National Forests is discussed. This is subsequently followed by an investigation into current outdoor recreation visitor statistics for these four Forests. Next, we discuss two different concepts of the economic significance of outdoor recreation: first, how communities benefit economically from tourism and visitor expenditures and second, the economic benefits to individual recreators. We pay special attention to how visitors demand the various outdoor recreation uses on these forests and estimate a total economic benefit of current recreation use. Next, we investigate future recreation use into the year 2060 under the scenario of a changing climate. Lastly, findings are summarized, and management implications are documented.