Experimental evaluation of Eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) detectability in visual search surveys

Understanding how detection probability varies over time, space, or in response to measurable covariates is important to inform the monitoring and assessment of many species. A standard model to understand detectability, the availability/perception model, admits that detection probability is the composite of two components: availability and ability of surveyors to detect the target. Availability is largely affected by environmental and behavioral factors, whereas perception is primarily affected by attributes of individual observers and survey protocols, and thus can potentially be partially controlled by survey design. We designed and implemented a field study to understand the perception component of detection for Eastern Box Turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) using visual encounter surveys. We obtained and deployed museum specimens of Eastern Box Turtle shells and subjected them to visual search surveys by observers in realistic field situations. Overall, about 50% of the box turtle shells were detected by observers, including 41.5% in what we categorized as partially visible and 63.0% as fully visible. There were significant differences among observers, which may be due to observer-specific variation in search technique; the observers varied in how well they achieved the protocol guidance. Therefore, in visual search surveys, care in study design and analysis should be taken to account for variation in perception to determine detectability, as our study suggests 37% of perceptible targets are missed by surveyors.