Farallon de Medinilla seabird and Tinian moorhen analyses

This report assesses the trends in brown booby (Sula leucogaster), masked booby (S. dactylatra), and red-footed booby (S. sula) counts collected on Farallon de Medinilla and Mariana common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus guami) counts on Tinian, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands to help elucidate patterns in bird numbers. During either monthly or quarterly surveys between 1997 and 2014 counts of all four bird species were recorded, generating a relatively noisy time series revealing inter-annual variation in index counts by as much as 1,000%. For the purposes of assessing long-term population trends across years we chose a single, species-specific month to assess trends. Doing so reduces the effect of intra-annual variation allowing the analysis to focus on inter-annual variation important to long-term trends assessment. There are clear fluctuations in the counts of all four species. Although the trends were non-significant, there is some evidence that masked and red-footed booby species have declined while brown booby and moorhen have increased.