Helping California get ready for when the mud hits the fan

With frequent wildfires, powerful rainstorms, steep terrain, and dense population, California is particularly vulnerable to postfire hazards like flooding and debris flow. Major postfire flooding and debris-flow events can be more costly than the fire itself, causing dozens of fatalities and widespread damage (Chawner, 1934; Lancaster et al., 2021). Smaller events occur nearly every year in California and can locally damage structures and roads, affect water quality and storage, and result in injury or loss of life (e.g., Dow et al., 2024; Rodriguez, 2025; Swanson et al., 2024; Figure 1). To mitigate these threats, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed tools to assist local, state, and federal agencies in rapidly assessing postfire debris-flow risk across California’s diverse geology and geography. This article summarizes that effort and describes ongoing work by the USGS and partners to advance these methods and help California better prepare for future wildfires.