Informing optimal management strategies for an emerging disease across a risk gradient

Management decisions for novel wildlife threats are challenging to optimize due to deep ecological uncertainty, and multiple, often competing objectives. We present a transparent, transferable, multi-criteria decision framework that integrates quantitative forecasts of management outcomes with decision-maker value weights to identify robust strategies. Specifically, we evaluated options for responding to the imminent threat of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) to North American amphibians. We worked with managers across the northeastern United States to characterize the full complexity of their multi-criteria decision contexts for addressing Bsal risk. We provide quantitative evidence that, across a range of value weights and landscape contexts, acting ahead of invasion is an optimal strategy for mitigating disease risk. We find clear evidence that proactive management is optimal, but our results also show that local context affects the optimal management action. Though demonstrated with Bsal, our framework generalizes to other biosecurity threats, providing decision support that unites ecological prediction, structured decision making, and stakeholder values to meet conservation goals.