Linking environmental variability to long-term demographic change of an endangered species using integrated population models
March 21, 2025
- Understanding how species populations change with environmental conditions is important for implementing effective habitat management and conservation strategies. Challenges to evaluating population-level responses to environmental conditions arise when data are sparse or not spatiotemporally aligned, especially for at-risk species with small, declining numbers.
- We synthesized 30 years (1992–2021) of three partially aligned data sets to build a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) and evaluate demographic and environmental drivers of growth rates for six separately managed ‘subpopulations’ (A–F) of the federally endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow endemic to the Florida Everglades.
- We found that juvenile survival peaked at inundation periods (hydroperiods) around 100–220 days and dropped sharply outside those values, while adult survival increased with longer periods of water depth <20 cm, but not with longer periods of water depth >20 cm. Fecundity increased when water depths were more stable, more area was dry, intervals between fires were longer and less area was burned.
- Changes in population growth rates tended to occur in years that juvenile and adult survival were associated with hydroperiod, especially in the two largest subpopulations B and E. Population growth rates were also associated with hydrologic conditions during the breeding season and fire dynamics through changes in fecundity, most notably in the smaller subpopulations A, C/F and D.
- Synthesis and applications. Our IPM represents the first long-term population analysis of the Cape Sable seaside sparrow connecting demographic processes to environmental factors. Our results suggest that sustaining periods of shallow water year-round may enhance Cape Sable seaside sparrow survival and population growth. Also, limiting water depth variability and maintaining dry conditions during the breeding season and inhibiting fires in consecutive years may increase fecundity and population growth. Identifying the mechanistic links between environmental and population dynamics could inform how species are expected to respond to management decisions and anticipated ecosystem changes.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Title | Linking environmental variability to long-term demographic change of an endangered species using integrated population models |
| DOI | 10.1111/1365-2664.70038 |
| Authors | Marisa Takada Martinez, Laura D'Acunto, Stephanie S. Romañach |
| Publication Type | Article |
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Series Title | Journal of Applied Ecology |
| Index ID | 70265231 |
| Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
| USGS Organization | Wetland and Aquatic Research Center |
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Code to assemble and generate output for an integrated population model of the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
This data release contains the R code to run an integrated population model (IPM) for the Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS; Ammospiza maritima mirabilis), a federally endangered bird endemic to a small part of the Everglades in southern Florida, USA, and provides the parameter estimates from the model. The IPM synthesizes thirty years (1992-2021) of range-wide surveys, mark-resight, and...
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Code to assemble and generate output for an integrated population model of the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow
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