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Modeling the effects of spatial distribution on dynamics of an invading Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake population

July 26, 2024

To predict the potential success of an invading non-native species, it is important to understand its dynamics and interactions with native species in the early stages of its invasion. In spatially implicit models, mathematical stability criteria are commonly used to predict whether an invading population grows in number in an early time period. But spatial context is important for real invasions as an invading population may first occur as a small number of individuals scatter spatially. The invasion dynamics are therefore not describable in terms of population level state variables. A better approach is spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM). We use an established spatially explicit IBM to predict the invasion of the non-native tree, Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake, to a native community in southern Florida. We show that the initial spatial distribution, both the spatial density of individuals and the area they cover, affects its success in growing numerically and spreading. The formation of a cluster of a sufficient number and density of individuals may be needed for the invader to locally outcompete the native species and become established. Different initial densities, identical in number and density but differing in random positions of individuals, can produce very different trajectories of the invading population through time, even affecting invasion success and failure.

Publication Year 2024
Title Modeling the effects of spatial distribution on dynamics of an invading Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake population
DOI 10.3390/f15081308
Authors Yuanming Lu, Junfei Xia, Robert D. Holt, Don DeAngelis
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Forests
Index ID 70257712
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
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