In hydrologic settings where groundwater discharge contributes substantially to surface waters, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can confound surface water nitrogen loads estimated exclusively from current terrestrial sources. Additionally, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can contribute to lagged responses to nitrogen management efforts. Some methods of estimating groundwater contributions to surface water nitrogen loads account for legacy nitrogen, while others do not. The resulting differences are rarely quantified. We used a numerical modeling framework to compare three methods of estimating time-varying annual groundwater nitrogen loads to surface water receptors on eastern Long Island, New York. The instantaneous load method used steady-state contributing areas and includes no temporal groundwater lag. The second method used numerical simulations of nitrogen loads under steady-state flow, which captures groundwater transport lags but omits the annual variability in transient hydrologic stresses. The third method numerically simulated both transient groundwater flow and nitrogen transport to explicitly capture the effects of legacy nitrogen in groundwater. Depending on antecedent nitrogen and hydrologic conditions, historical nitrogen loads estimated from the numerical simulations were sometimes similar (<10% difference) and other times substantially different (±100%) from the instantaneous load estimates. Additionally, simulated future surface water nitrogen loads responded asymptotically over several decades following reductions in terrestrial nitrogen sources, further highlighting the effect of groundwater transport lag times. The comparison of the three methods, quantification of historical interannual variability, and prediction of lagged responses to nitrogen source reductions provide important context for decision makers using estimated groundwater nitrogen loads to help evaluate nitrogen management efficacy.
