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Modeling uncertainty: Quicksand for water temperature modeling

January 1, 2004

Uncertainty has been a hot topic relative to science generally, and modeling specifically. Modeling uncertainty comes in various forms: measured data, limited model domain, model parameter estimation, model structure, sensitivity to inputs, modelers themselves, and users of the results. This paper will address important components of uncertainty in modeling water temperatures, and discuss several areas that need attention as the modeling community grapples with how to incorporate uncertainty into modeling without getting stuck in the quicksand that prevents constructive contributions to policy making. The material, and in particular the reference, are meant to supplement the presentation given at this conference.

Citation Information

Publication Year 2003
Title Modeling uncertainty: Quicksand for water temperature modeling
Authors John M. Bartholow
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Hydrological Science and Technology
Index ID 70006394
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Fort Collins Science Center