Modeling wetland resources for spring migratory waterbirds under different agricultural management scenarios in the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Constructed water quality wetlands, designed to accept tile drainage and surface runoff, are a promising solution for reducing surface water nutrient loading from agricultural systems. In addition to their water quality benefits, these systems may also offset losses of migratory waterbird stopover sites resulting from historical and future agricultural drainage modernization. To assess this possibility, we developed spatially explicit habitat models informed with expert opinion to explore the: 1) potential of water quality wetlands to provide suitable stopover resources for waterbirds during spring migration; and 2) the extent these wetlands can offset likely losses of stopover resources due to drainage modernization. We focused our modeling on the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America as it was a historically important area within this vital region for waterbirds, but it has experienced widespread subsurface drainage. Model results indicate that unmitigated drainage modernization is likely to have a large negative effect on spring migratory resources for dabbling ducks and shorebirds and minimal effect on diving ducks. Water quality wetland installations are likely to provide habitat for dabbling and diving ducks, but wetland installation is unlikely to completely offset habitat losses for dabbling ducks and shorebirds. Drainage modernization aside, our results indicate that water quality wetlands can address several environmental issues associated with agricultural expansion and intensification by improving water quality and providing wetland resources for waterbirds and other organisms. Field-scale research is needed to validate these results.