Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose (Anser canagicus), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.