Numerical simulation of sound-side barrier-island inundation and breaching during Hurricane Dorian (2019)

Hurricane-induced morphological changes and associated community hazards along sandy, barrier-island coastlines have been studied primarily from the perspective of ocean-side attack by storm-driven ocean surge and large waves. Thus, our understanding of long-term barrier island morphological change focuses on beach erosion, overwash, and inlet formation. In contrast, outwash events with inundation from the sound side, such as one that occurred in Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, USA during Hurricane Dorian (September 2019), are understudied. Studying such events can improve understanding of barrier island response and stability for a broader range of conditions. Here, we model the hydrodynamics and morphological evolution of a barrier island using a coupled wave-current-sediment transport modeling system. Wind-driven surge in Pamlico Sound led to overtopping from the sound side, which eroded outwash channels and transported sediment seaward into the nearshore. Simulations reproduce the channel features observed with aerial imagery and provide information not available from the remote-sensing observations, including channel depths (>2 m) and the fate of the eroded sand. We found that >99% of the eroded sand was deposited in the nearshore, within 1,000 m of the shoreline in depths <10 m, suggesting that the deposited sediment remains available for littoral transport and beach recovery. Simulations with combinations of coarse or fine sediment and vegetated or unvegetated landcover indicate that channel position did not vary with grain size or vegetation, while volume of erosion and channel morphology were more responsive to variations in grain size and less responsive to presence of vegetation.