Predicted genetic consequences of alternative population control strategies for North American plains bison in Yellowstone National Park

North American plains bison (Bison bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park are descendant from a population low of 23 indigenous individuals from the late 1800s, and 21 individuals introduced from outside herds in the early 1900s to strengthen the possibility of recovery. Within the park, the herd has rebounded and now averages around 5,000 animals. The herd is managed as a closed population within the park and adjacent areas in Montana, USA, which involves annual removals of animals to control numbers. We used genetic simulation to first isolate the effects of population size on retention of genetic diversity, and second to predict the genetic consequences of different population control strategies that vary in the number of bison removed annually, and their relatedness, while considering varying degrees of male dominance and environmental catastrophes. We found through simulation of a stable population that a herd size >2,500 had a high probability (>0.9) of retaining genetic diversity at levels compatible with long-term conservation (>90% of the initial genetic variation over 200 years), but a herd of 3,500 or more had a high likelihood (>0.9) of retaining levels of genetic variation (95%) suggested for maintaining evolutionary potential. When simulating the removals based on plausible management strategies available to the National Park Service, we found that maintaining a herd size of 3,500 or more, limiting removals to less than 40% of the population at a time, keeping a balanced sex ratio, and preferentially removing related individuals would likely retain more than 95% of existing genetic variation. With a herd size of 3,500 animals or more, population catastrophes and male dominance only influenced genetic retention in the most extreme cases, such as a catastrophic population decline of over 95%, a prolonged decline from 90% to 10% over 5 years, or extreme male dominance where 1% of males produced all offspring each year.