Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss

Dry forests of the western United States evolved with frequent, spatially extensive, low-severity fires, followed by a century of fire exclusion. Recently, these same forests have experienced large and increasingly severe fires causing widespread forest loss. To what extent do modern high-severity fires depart from pre-1900 fire regimes, and how do these departures affect the future persistence of dry-conifer forests? We address these questions using a multiscalar approach that combines the largest landscape-scale tree-ring fire-scar network in North America with neutral landscape model simulations in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico. Fire scars recorded a continuous 400-y history (ca. 1500–1900 CE) of frequent, low-severity fires across individual sites, landscapes, and centuries. We evaluated whether forests exhibiting this record could plausibly persist if they had historically burned under modern patterns of high-severity fire. Across the 240,000-ha Jemez landscape, high-severity fires from 1995–2024 burned 32% of fire-scar sites and 25% of dry-conifer forests. Within the Las Conchas Fire perimeter—a 61,000 ha area reburned by multiple fires—66% of fire-scar sites and 71% of forests were burned at high severity, erasing multiple centuries of forest and fire history. Simulations indicate that the probability of the observed fire-scar network persisting under modern high-severity fire rates is near-zero (P < 0.001). Projecting these dynamics forward indicates rapid loss of both dry-conifer forests and tree-ring fire histories—50% of modern dry-conifer forest will remain by 2055, and 24% by 2115. Modern high-severity fire regimes appear incompatible with dry-conifer forest persistence.