Red Knot stopover population size and migration ecology at Delaware Bay, USA, 2023

Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa) stop at Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of North America during northward migration to feed on eggs of horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus). We conducted a mark-recapture-resight investigation to estimate the passage population of Red Knots at Delaware Bay in 2023. We used a Bayesian analysis of a Jolly-Seber model, which accounts for turnover in the population and the probability of detection during surveys. The 2023 passage population size was estimated at 39,361 (95% credible interval: 33,724–47,556). Although there is broad overlap in the credible intervals for population estimates from 2020–2023, the population estimate for 2023 was below 40,000 birds for only the second time since 2011. Horseshoe crabs have been harvested for use as bait in eel (Anguilla rostrata) and whelk (Busycon) fisheries since at least 1990. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the number of Red Knots counted during aerial surveys at Delaware Bay declined from ~50,000 to ~13,000 and some avian conservation biologists hypothesized that horseshoe crab harvest levels in the 1990s prevented sufficient refueling for successful migration to the Arctic breeding grounds, reproduction, and survival for the remainder of the annual cycle. Since 2013, the harvest of horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay region has been managed using an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) framework. The objective of the ARM framework is to manage sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs while maintaining ecosystem integrity and supporting Red Knot recovery with adequate stopover habitat for Red Knots and other migrating shorebirds. For annual harvest recommendations, the ARM framework requires annual estimates of horseshoe crab population size and the Red Knot stopover population size. The 2023 population size estimate will inform harvest recommendations in the next management cycle for decision making by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.