Reduction in overwinter body condition and size of Pacific sand lance has implications for piscivorous predators during marine heatwaves

Acute anomalous ocean warming events, including marine heatwaves (MHWs), have significant effects on reproduction and survival of piscivorous seabirds. Additionally, MHWs have negative effects on seabird fish prey, exacerbating these consequences and resulting in population implications for seabirds. We evaluated the relative body condition of Pacific sand lance Ammodytes personatus, an important seabird forage species, in Haro Strait, a highly productive region of southern British Columbia, Canada. We compared body condition and length of fish cohorts that experienced the 2016 MHW year (MHW cohorts) with fish hatched during 3 subsequent post MHW years (2017-2019). Age-0 MHW cohorts had a seasonal decline in body condition in age-0 fish from 100% in the summer to 81% in the winter, while age-1 fish showed a decline from summer-fall highs of 93.5% to wintertime low of 79.5%. In comparison, post MHW cohorts had a winter body condition that was 2-4 times higher than their MHW cohorts. Similar to previous studies in Alaska during the MHW, age-1 fish failed to grow and reach the typical size that distinguishes them from age-0 fish. Poor sand lance condition and growth in winter may explain the ramifications of a warming ocean for top predators, including seabirds and Pacific salmon, which depend on these prey fish in Haro Strait. Our results support the idea that Haro Strait, which is influenced by estuarine circulation resulting in cooler temperatures than surrounding areas, serves as a climate refugium for sand lance populations in summer and provides buffering capacity to ocean climate warming events.