Role of volcano-tectonic interactions during early-phase magma-assisted continental rifting

We study volcanic-tectonic interactions during the early phase of rifting in the Natron Rift, a magmatic segment of the East African Rift System. We use the open-source crustal deformation modeling code, PyLith, to model deflation during the 2007–2008 explosive eruptions and inflation during 2016–2023. We compare predictions of surface displacements resulting from magma reservoir inflation from 3D models with and without topography and homogeneous and heterogeneous material properties against Global Navigation Satellite System displacements from 2016 to 2023. We prefer the model with heterogeneous material properties and topography for fitting the observed displacements. Including topography improves the fit to GNSS data and modulates stress changes from shallow magma sources. Our numerical modeling of Coulomb stress changes suggests that deflation of a magma reservoir under the active Ol Doinyo Lengai volcano could trigger oblique normal slip on the Natron Fault with Coulomb stress increases exceeding ∼0.1 MPa on the volcano-adjacent fault segment. Fault slip on the Natron Fault is less likely during inflation of the magma reservoir because normal compressive stress increases on the fault. We also demonstrate that Coulomb stress changes are sensitive to the inclusion of topography in our model, particularly because the depth of the magma reservoir is similar to the amplitude of the topographic relief.