Seasonal trophic dynamics drive growth potential and predation risk for reintroduced Chinook salmon in Shasta Reservoir

Reservoir ecosystems can significantly affect anadromous salmon populations reintroduced upstream of impassable high-head dams. In this study, we examine how a novel reservoir food web created by an impoundment can limit juvenile growth or survival through the seasonal production or access to food, promote competition for available resources, and affect risk of the food supply or predation mortality, all of which can be strongly influenced by the thermal regime. Shasta Reservoir, the largest impoundment in California’s Central Valley Project, presents opportunities and risks for winter-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a federally endangered population targeted for reintroduction into the McCloud River, which flows into the reservoir. We integrated field sampling, stable isotope analysis, hydroacoustic surveys, and bioenergetics modeling to characterize Shasta Reservoir’s food web and evaluate seasonal growth potential and predation risk for juvenile salmon. Zooplankton, dominated by Daphnia, provided favorable foraging conditions in spring but declined sharply by late summer, coinciding with high consumption demand from abundant threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). Bioenergetics simulations indicated that fry that would ordinarily enter the reservoir in autumn would face poor growth opportunities. They would also be exposed to elevated predation risk driven by warm temperatures and high metabolic demand, particularly from piscivorous salmonids and Sacramento pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus grandis). Limited information on predator abundances precludes the ability to quantify total predation demand. Alternatively, juveniles entering the reservoir the following spring would encounter greater prey availability and reduced predation pressure. These findings highlight the strong influence of seasonal thermal structure and food web dynamics on reservoir constraints and underscore the need to incorporate the dynamics of key habitats into reintroduction management and decisions. Our framework provides a quantitative, mechanistically-based approach for evaluating the role of reservoirs in salmon reintroductions above high-head dams.