Spatiotemporal synchrony of climate and fire occurrence across North American forests (1750-1880)
Aim
Increasing aridity has driven widespread synchronous fire occurrence in recent decades across North America. The lack of historical (pre-1880) fire records limits our ability to understand long-term continental fire-climate dynamics. The goal of this study is to use tree-ring reconstructions to determine the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns in historical climate and widespread fire occurrence in North American forests, and whether they are stable through time. This information will address a major knowledge gap required to inform projections of future fire.
Location
North American Forests.
Time Period
1750–1880 CE.
Major Taxa Studies
Trees.
Methods
We applied regionalisation methods to tree-ring reconstructions of historical summer soil moisture and annual fire occurrence to independently identify broad- and fine-scale climate and fire regions based on common inter-annual variability. We then tested whether the regions were stable through time and for spatial correspondence between the climate and fire regions. Last, we used correlation analysis to quantify the strength of the fire-climate associations through time.
Results
We found that broad-scale historical patterns in climate and fire have strong spatial coherence. Although climate and fire regions vary over time, large core areas of the regions were stable. The association between climate and fire varied through time and was strongest in western North America, likely due to a combination of factors, such as the magnitude of drought frequency and severity, as well as varying use of fire by human communities.
Main Conclusions
The historical perspective gained through tree-ring reconstructions of climate and fire patterns and their association suggests that climate-driven synchrony of fire across large areas of the continent in recent decades is not unprecedented, will likely continue into the future, and may exhibit similar spatial patterns.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2025 |
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Title | Spatiotemporal synchrony of climate and fire occurrence across North American forests (1750-1880) |
DOI | 10.1111/geb.13937 |
Authors | Ellis Margolis, Andreas Paul Wion, John T. Abatzoglou, Lori D. Daniels, Donald A. Falk, Chris Guiterman, James B. Johnston, Kurt F. Kipfmueller, Charles W. Lafon, Rachel A. Loehman, Maggie Lonergan, Cameron E. Naficy, Marc-Andre Parisien, Sean Parks, Jeanne Portier, Michael C. Stambaugh, Ellen Whitman, A. Park Williams, Larissa Yocom |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Global Ecology and Biogeography |
Index ID | 70261998 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Fort Collins Science Center |