Upstream migration and spawning success of Chinook salmon in a highly developed, seasonally warm river system

This review summarizes what is known about the influence of water temperature and velocity on the migration and spawning success of an inland population of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Models are then developed and used to illustrate how migration and spawning success might change if temperatures and velocities increase under a future climate. The illustration shows the potential for moderate increases in temperature and velocity to reduce homing and increase energy expenditure. Those two outcomes would reduce the abundance, productivity, and diversity of the population studied. Under the future scenario illustrated, it would become difficult for fish management actions alone to recover conservation-reliant populations of inland Chinook salmon.