Use of Low-Flow Trend and Transfer-Function Models to Determine Relation of Low Flows to Regional Urbanization and Precipitation, Rahway River Basin, New Jersey, 1940-91

The Rahway River Basin in northern New Jersey has become heavily urbanized. The importance of the Rahway River as a water-supply source for the region led to an investigation of trends in the river's low-flow characteristics over time and their relation to regional urbanization and precipitation. Since 1950, low flows at a stream-gaging station near Springfield, N.J., increasingly have tended to exceed those at a station at Rahway. Polynomial-trend models for three measures of low-flow difference between the two stations during 1940-91 show trends in all three measures, indicating that they have changed significantly in level during the study period. Transfer-function models indicate that differences in low flows between the two gaging stations are significantly related to measures of basin urbanization and regional precipitation. A rough water budget for the inter-gage part of the basin confirms these results.