Using an individual-based model to assess common biases in lek-based count data to estimate population trajectories of lesser prairie-chickens

Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection, availability for sampling, and heterogeneity in abundance. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitoring program when male-based surveys are used as an index for the total population. Often, male-based surveys are used for lekking species, as males are conspicuous and more easily monitored when lekking than females. To determine if lek surveys capture changes or trends in population abundance based on female survival and reproduction, we developed a virtual ecologist approach using the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) as an example. Our approach used an individual-based model to simulate lek counts based on female vital rate data from lesser prairie-chickens, included models where detection probability and lek attendance were