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Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast)

Completed
By Alaska Science Center May 9, 2016

WildCast (WILDlife Potential Habitat ForeCASTing Project) is a completed project led by USGS, in collaboration with the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Forest Service. WildCast was devised to provide models for projecting future land cover and wildlife habitat conditions in northwest Alaska under potential scenarios of climate change, and to provide an image database for future change-comparison research.

Return to Ecosystems

WildCast Study Area Boundaries
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

The geographic area covered under WildCast includes the five administrative units of the National Park Service's Arctic Network and the adjacent Selawick National Wildlife Refuge of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

WildCast was initiated in 2009 and largely completed in 2014 with the series of publications, presentations, image databases, and (forthcoming) documentation of models projecting current and future land cover and wildlife habitats of the region over the 21st century under assumptions of changes in regional climate temperature and various biophysical drivers and disturbances.

The change-projection models, along with the image database, are intended to provide a valuable legacy for future research. The models can be updated with new information, and the image database provides a baseline against which future images – aerial or satellite – can be compared.

Photographic Transect Data (download data here)

Examples (all are Public Domain)

Thermokarst lake, Seward Peninsula
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Thermokarst lake, Seward Peninsula.
(Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, GoPro 0496_pt.jpg", latitude 66.013658N, longitude 162.078936W)
Coastal river sand bar, Seward Peninsula
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Coastal river sand bar, Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Seward Peninsula.  Dominant ecotypes include Coastal Barrens, Coastal Loamy Wet Brackish Sedge-Grass Meadow, and Lowland Moist Sedge-Dryas Meadow.
(Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, GoPro 0164_pt.jpg", latitude 66.586585N, longitude 163.984358W) 
Coastal shorelines, Cape Espenberg, Seward Peninsula
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Coastal shorelines, Cape Espenberg, Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Seward Peninsula.
(Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, Lumix 0028.jpg", latitude 66.589097N, longitude 163.695367W)
Hardwood patch on high ground, Selawik National Wildlife Refuge
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Hardwood patch on high ground, Selawik National Wildlife Refuge.  Dominant ecotypes include Upland Moist Dwarf Birch-Ericaceous-Willow Low Shrub, upland Organic-rich Moist Acidic Dwarf Birch-Tussock Shrub, and Upland Rocky-Loamy Moist Circumacidic Alder-Willow Tall Shrub.
(Photograph "ARCN 130717 KobGatSel, GoPro 1932_pt.jpg", latitude 66.542308N, longitude 158.508161W)
Recent tundra fire scar, Noatak National Preserve
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Recent tundra fire scar, Noatak National Preserve.
(Photograph "ARCN 130718 NoaKru, Lumix 0492.jpg", latitude 67.764558N, longitude 158.117244W)
Patterned ground along the Noatak River, Noatak National Preserve
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Patterned ground along the Noatak River, Noatak National Preserve.  Dominant ecotypes include Riverine Loamy Wet Circumacidic Wet Sedge Meadow, Riverine Loamy Moist Circumacidic Birch-Willow Low Shrub, Riverine Gravelly Moist Circumalkaline Barrens, and Riverine Gravelly Dry Alkaline Dryas Dwarf Shrub. 
(Photograph "ARCN 130718 NoaKru, GoPro 2272_pt.jpg", latitude 68.074469N, longitude 159.309864W)

 

Presentations

Jorgenson, M. T., and B. G. Marcot. 2012. Predicting future habitat changes and habitat use in northwest Alaska. Presented at: Interior Arctic Alaska National Parks Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop. 27 March 2012, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Jorgenson, M. T., B. G. Marcot, D. K. Swanson, J. C. Jorgenson, and A. R. DeGange. 2014. Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming in northwest Alaska. Presented at: 2014 US International Association of Landscape Ecology (US-IALE), 18-22 May 2014, Anchorage, Alaska.

Lawler, J., J. C. Jorgenson, B. G. Marcot, R. Winfree, and A. R. DeGange. 2014. WildCast: Projecting ecotypes and wildlife habitats in the Arctic Network and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge. Presented at: 7th annual Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, 23-25 April 2014, Kotzebue, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2008. Defining input parameters to model habitat change in a changing climate (Workshop Moderator). Presented 17 October 2008 at: Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast) Workshop, USDI Geological Survey and National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2008. Modeling approaches useful for predicting change. Presented 17 October 2008 at: Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast) Workshop, USDI Geological Survey and National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2010. Modeling approaches for predicting change under WILDCAST: making progress in a data-poor world. Alaska Park Science 8(2):90-94.

Low-altitude photographic transects of the Arctic Network of National Park Units and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, July 2013

During July 16–18, 2013, low-level photography flights were conducted (with a Cessna 185 with floats and a Cessna 206 with tundra tires) over the five administrative units of the National Park Service Arctic Network (Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Kobuk Valley National Park, and Noatak National Preserve) and
Authors
Bruce G. Marcot, M. Torre Jorgenson, Anthony R. DeGange
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Projected changes in wildlife habitats in Arctic natural areas of northwest Alaska

We project the effects of transitional changes among 60 vegetation and other land cover types (“ecotypes”) in northwest Alaska over the 21st century on habitats of 162 bird and 39 mammal species known or expected to occur regularly in the region. This analysis, encompassing a broad suite of arctic and boreal wildlife species, entailed building wildlife-habitat matrices denoting levels of use of ea
Authors
Bruce G. Marcot, M. Torre Jorgenson, James P. Lawler, Colleen M. Handel, Anthony R. DeGange
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using b
Authors
Anthony R. DeGange, Bruce G. Marcot, James Lawler, Torre Jorgenson, Robert Winfree

Below are partners associated with this project.

National Park Service (NPS)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

U.S. Forest Service (USFS)

WildCast (WILDlife Potential Habitat ForeCASTing Project) is a completed project led by USGS, in collaboration with the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Forest Service. WildCast was devised to provide models for projecting future land cover and wildlife habitat conditions in northwest Alaska under potential scenarios of climate change, and to provide an image database for future change-comparison research.

Return to Ecosystems

WildCast Study Area Boundaries
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

The geographic area covered under WildCast includes the five administrative units of the National Park Service's Arctic Network and the adjacent Selawick National Wildlife Refuge of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

WildCast was initiated in 2009 and largely completed in 2014 with the series of publications, presentations, image databases, and (forthcoming) documentation of models projecting current and future land cover and wildlife habitats of the region over the 21st century under assumptions of changes in regional climate temperature and various biophysical drivers and disturbances.

The change-projection models, along with the image database, are intended to provide a valuable legacy for future research. The models can be updated with new information, and the image database provides a baseline against which future images – aerial or satellite – can be compared.

Photographic Transect Data (download data here)

Examples (all are Public Domain)

Thermokarst lake, Seward Peninsula
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Thermokarst lake, Seward Peninsula.
(Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, GoPro 0496_pt.jpg", latitude 66.013658N, longitude 162.078936W)
Coastal river sand bar, Seward Peninsula
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Coastal river sand bar, Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Seward Peninsula.  Dominant ecotypes include Coastal Barrens, Coastal Loamy Wet Brackish Sedge-Grass Meadow, and Lowland Moist Sedge-Dryas Meadow.
(Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, GoPro 0164_pt.jpg", latitude 66.586585N, longitude 163.984358W) 
Coastal shorelines, Cape Espenberg, Seward Peninsula
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Coastal shorelines, Cape Espenberg, Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Seward Peninsula.
(Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, Lumix 0028.jpg", latitude 66.589097N, longitude 163.695367W)
Hardwood patch on high ground, Selawik National Wildlife Refuge
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Hardwood patch on high ground, Selawik National Wildlife Refuge.  Dominant ecotypes include Upland Moist Dwarf Birch-Ericaceous-Willow Low Shrub, upland Organic-rich Moist Acidic Dwarf Birch-Tussock Shrub, and Upland Rocky-Loamy Moist Circumacidic Alder-Willow Tall Shrub.
(Photograph "ARCN 130717 KobGatSel, GoPro 1932_pt.jpg", latitude 66.542308N, longitude 158.508161W)
Recent tundra fire scar, Noatak National Preserve
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Recent tundra fire scar, Noatak National Preserve.
(Photograph "ARCN 130718 NoaKru, Lumix 0492.jpg", latitude 67.764558N, longitude 158.117244W)
Patterned ground along the Noatak River, Noatak National Preserve
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Patterned ground along the Noatak River, Noatak National Preserve.  Dominant ecotypes include Riverine Loamy Wet Circumacidic Wet Sedge Meadow, Riverine Loamy Moist Circumacidic Birch-Willow Low Shrub, Riverine Gravelly Moist Circumalkaline Barrens, and Riverine Gravelly Dry Alkaline Dryas Dwarf Shrub. 
(Photograph "ARCN 130718 NoaKru, GoPro 2272_pt.jpg", latitude 68.074469N, longitude 159.309864W)

 

Presentations

Jorgenson, M. T., and B. G. Marcot. 2012. Predicting future habitat changes and habitat use in northwest Alaska. Presented at: Interior Arctic Alaska National Parks Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop. 27 March 2012, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Jorgenson, M. T., B. G. Marcot, D. K. Swanson, J. C. Jorgenson, and A. R. DeGange. 2014. Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming in northwest Alaska. Presented at: 2014 US International Association of Landscape Ecology (US-IALE), 18-22 May 2014, Anchorage, Alaska.

Lawler, J., J. C. Jorgenson, B. G. Marcot, R. Winfree, and A. R. DeGange. 2014. WildCast: Projecting ecotypes and wildlife habitats in the Arctic Network and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge. Presented at: 7th annual Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, 23-25 April 2014, Kotzebue, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2008. Defining input parameters to model habitat change in a changing climate (Workshop Moderator). Presented 17 October 2008 at: Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast) Workshop, USDI Geological Survey and National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2008. Modeling approaches useful for predicting change. Presented 17 October 2008 at: Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast) Workshop, USDI Geological Survey and National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2010. Modeling approaches for predicting change under WILDCAST: making progress in a data-poor world. Alaska Park Science 8(2):90-94.

Low-altitude photographic transects of the Arctic Network of National Park Units and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, July 2013

During July 16–18, 2013, low-level photography flights were conducted (with a Cessna 185 with floats and a Cessna 206 with tundra tires) over the five administrative units of the National Park Service Arctic Network (Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Cape Krusenstern National Monument, Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, Kobuk Valley National Park, and Noatak National Preserve) and
Authors
Bruce G. Marcot, M. Torre Jorgenson, Anthony R. DeGange
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Projected changes in wildlife habitats in Arctic natural areas of northwest Alaska

We project the effects of transitional changes among 60 vegetation and other land cover types (“ecotypes”) in northwest Alaska over the 21st century on habitats of 162 bird and 39 mammal species known or expected to occur regularly in the region. This analysis, encompassing a broad suite of arctic and boreal wildlife species, entailed building wildlife-habitat matrices denoting levels of use of ea
Authors
Bruce G. Marcot, M. Torre Jorgenson, James P. Lawler, Colleen M. Handel, Anthony R. DeGange
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using b
Authors
Anthony R. DeGange, Bruce G. Marcot, James Lawler, Torre Jorgenson, Robert Winfree

Below are partners associated with this project.

National Park Service (NPS)

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

U.S. Forest Service (USFS)

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