Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast)

Science Center Objects

WildCast (WILDlife Potential Habitat ForeCASTing Project) is a completed project led by USGS, in collaboration with the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Forest Service. WildCast was devised to provide models for projecting future land cover and wildlife habitat conditions in northwest Alaska under potential scenarios of climate change, and to provide an image database for future change-comparison research.

Return to Wildlife, Fish, and Habitats

WildCast Study Area Boundaries

The geographic area covered under WildCast includes the five administrative units of the National Park Service's Arctic Network and the adjacent Selawick National Wildlife Refuge of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

WildCast was initiated in 2009 and largely completed in 2014 with the series of publications, presentations, image databases, and (forthcoming) documentation of models projecting current and future land cover and wildlife habitats of the region over the 21st century under assumptions of changes in regional climate temperature and various biophysical drivers and disturbances.

The change-projection models, along with the image database, are intended to provide a valuable legacy for future research. The models can be updated with new information, and the image database provides a baseline against which future images – aerial or satellite – can be compared.

Photographic Transect Data (download data here)

Examples (all are Public Domain)

Thermokarst lake, Seward Peninsula

Thermokarst lake, Seward Peninsula. (Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, GoPro 0496_pt.jpg", latitude 66.013658N, longitude 162.078936W)

Coastal river sand bar, Seward Peninsula

Coastal river sand bar, Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Seward Peninsula. Dominant ecotypes include Coastal Barrens, Coastal Loamy Wet Brackish Sedge-Grass Meadow, and Lowland Moist Sedge-Dryas Meadow. (Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, GoPro 0164_pt.jpg", latitude 66.586585N, longitude 163.984358W)

 

Coastal shorelines, Cape Espenberg, Seward Peninsula

Coastal shorelines, Cape Espenberg, Bering Land Bridge National Preserve, Seward Peninsula. (Photograph "ARCN 130716 Bering, Lumix 0028.jpg", latitude 66.589097N, longitude 163.695367W)

Hardwood patch on high ground, Selawik National Wildlife Refuge

Hardwood patch on high ground, Selawik National Wildlife Refuge. Dominant ecotypes include Upland Moist Dwarf Birch-Ericaceous-Willow Low Shrub, upland Organic-rich Moist Acidic Dwarf Birch-Tussock Shrub, and Upland Rocky-Loamy Moist Circumacidic Alder-Willow Tall Shrub. (Photograph "ARCN 130717 KobGatSel, GoPro 1932_pt.jpg", latitude 66.542308N, longitude 158.508161W)

 

Recent tundra fire scar, Noatak National Preserve

Recent tundra fire scar, Noatak National Preserve. (Photograph "ARCN 130718 NoaKru, Lumix 0492.jpg", latitude 67.764558N, longitude 158.117244W)

Patterned ground along the Noatak River, Noatak National Preserve

Patterned ground along the Noatak River, Noatak National Preserve. Dominant ecotypes include Riverine Loamy Wet Circumacidic Wet Sedge Meadow, Riverine Loamy Moist Circumacidic Birch-Willow Low Shrub, Riverine Gravelly Moist Circumalkaline Barrens, and Riverine Gravelly Dry Alkaline Dryas Dwarf Shrub. (Photograph "ARCN 130718 NoaKru, GoPro 2272_pt.jpg", latitude 68.074469N, longitude 159.309864W)

Presentations
Jorgenson, M. T., and B. G. Marcot. 2012. Predicting future habitat changes and habitat use in northwest Alaska. Presented at: Interior Arctic Alaska National Parks Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop. 27 March 2012, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Jorgenson, M. T., B. G. Marcot, D. K. Swanson, J. C. Jorgenson, and A. R. DeGange. 2014. Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming in northwest Alaska. Presented at: 2014 US International Association of Landscape Ecology (US-IALE), 18-22 May 2014, Anchorage, Alaska.

Lawler, J., J. C. Jorgenson, B. G. Marcot, R. Winfree, and A. R. DeGange. 2014. WildCast: Projecting ecotypes and wildlife habitats in the Arctic Network and Selawik National Wildlife Refuge. Presented at: 7th annual Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, 23-25 April 2014, Kotzebue, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2008. Defining input parameters to model habitat change in a changing climate (Workshop Moderator). Presented 17 October 2008 at: Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast) Workshop, USDI Geological Survey and National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Marcot, B. G. 2008. Modeling approaches useful for predicting change. Presented 17 October 2008 at: Wildlife Potential Habitat Forecasting Framework (WildCast) Workshop, USDI Geological Survey and National Park Service, Fairbanks, Alaska.