Publications

During the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and caldera collapse, M ∼ 5 caldera collapse earthquakes occurred almost daily from mid-May until the beginning of August. While caldera collapses happen infrequently, the collapse-related seismicity damaged nearby structures, and so these events should be included in a complete seismic hazard assessment. Here, we present an approach to forecast the...

The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that...

Because the amount of available ground‐motion data has increased over the last decades, the need for automated processing algorithms has also increased. One difficulty with automated processing is to screen clipped records. Clipping occurs when the ground‐motion amplitude exceeds the dynamic range of the linear response of the instrument. Clipped records in which the amplitude exceeds...

The 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence involved predominantly right‐lateral strike slip on a northwest–southeast‐trending subvertical fault in the 6 July M 7.1 mainshock, preceded by left‐lateral strike slip on a northeast–southwest‐trending subvertical fault in the 4 July M 6.4 foreshock. To characterize the postseismic deformation, we assemble displacements measured by...

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay...

We present an ergodic site response model with regional adjustments for use with subduction zone ground-motion models. The model predicts site amplification of peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5% damped pseudo-spectral accelerations of the orientation-independent horizonal component for oscillator periods from 0.01 to 10 s. The model depends on the time-averaged shear...

In a recent study, Hough and Martin (2021) considered the extent to which socioeconomic factors influence the numbers and distribution of contributed reports available to characterize the effects of both historical and recent large earthquakes. In this study I explore the question further, focusing on analysis of widely felt earthquakes near major population centers in northern and...

The mechanical, physical, and frictional properties of incoming materials play an important role in subduction zone structure and slip behavior because these properties influence the strength of the accretionary wedge and megathrust plate boundary faults. Incoming sediment sections often show an increase in compressional wave speed (Vp) and a decrease in porosity with depth due to...

This paper studies the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction triggering and severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California, for the M 7.0 “HayWired” earthquake scenario along the Hayward fault. This work emerged from stakeholder engagement for the US Geological Survey releases of the HayWired earthquake scenario and the Coastal Storm Modeling System projects, in which local...

We identify aspects of finite‐source parameterization that strongly affect the accuracy of estimated ground motion for earthquake early warning (EEW). EEW systems aim to alert users to impending shaking before it reaches them. The U.S. West Coast EEW system, ShakeAlert, currently uses two algorithms based on seismic data to characterize the earthquake’s location, magnitude, and origin...

During rock friction experiments at large displacement, room temperature and humidity, and following a hold test, the fracture energy increases approximately as the square of the logarithm of hold duration. While it's been long known that failure strength increases with log hold time, here the slip weakening distance, dh, also increases. The weakening distance increase is large, hundreds...

We thank David Wald (Wald, 2021; henceforth, W21) for his interest in our recent article (Hough and Martin, 2021; henceforth, HM21). Although different perspectives are vital in science, we are concerned that W21 misrepresents HM21 as an oblique criticism of the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, calling for HM21 to be retracted. Readers who are interested in the...