Earthquake Science Center

Publications

Filter Total Items: 1,450
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Year Published: 2021

Physics‐based evaluation of the maximum magnitude of potential earthquakes induced by the Hutubi (China) underground gas storage

The world’s largest underground gas storage facility in Hutubi (HUGS), China, is a unique case where cyclic gas injection‐extraction induced both seismicity and ground deformation. To assess the potential for future induced seismicity, we develop a framework physically based on a well‐constrained hydro‐geomechanical model and on fully coupled...

Jiang, Guoyan; Liu, Lin; Barbour, Andrew J.; Lu, Renqi; Yang, Hongfeng

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Year Published: 2021

Earthquake magnitudes from dynamic strain

Dynamic strains have never played a role in determining local earthquake magnitudes, which are routinely set by displacement waveforms from seismic instrumentation (e.g., ML">MLML⁠). We present a magnitude scale for local earthquakes based on broadband dynamic strain waveforms. This scale is derived from the peak root‐mean‐squared strains...

Barbour, Andrew J.; Langbein, John O.; Farghal, Noha Sameh Ahmed

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Year Published: 2021

Rapid strain release on the Bear River fault zone, Utah–Wyoming—The impact of preexisting structure on the rupture behavior of a new normal fault

Earthquake clustering (grouping in space and time) is a widely observed mode of strain release in the upper crust, although this behavior on individual faults is a departure from classic elastic rebound theory. In this study, we consider factors responsible for a cluster of earthquakes on the Bear River fault zone (BRF), a recently activated...

Hecker, Suzanne; Schwartz, David P.; DeLong, Stephen B.

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Year Published: 2021

Electrical conductivity of pure CO2 hydrate and CH4 hydrate: Role of the guest molecule

To conclude a series of DOE-sponsored laboratory experiments in which our team measured electrical conductivity of methane hydrate-bearing samples, we investigated electrical conductivity of CO2 hydrate for direct comparison with methane hydrate. Their surprisingly distinct signatures could aid in the monitoring of CO2 in certain deep marine...

Stern, Laura A.; Constable, S.; Lu, Ryan; Du Frane, Wyatt L.; Roberts, J. Murray

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Year Published: 2021

Expected warning times from the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of earthquakes that occur...

McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Deborah E.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Wirth, Erin A.; McBride, Sara K.; de Groot, Robert M.
McGuire, J.J., Smith, D.E., Frankel, A.D., Wirth, E.A., McBride, S.K., and de Groot, R.M., 2021, Expected warning times from the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest (ver. 1.1, March 24, 2021): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2021–1026, 37 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20211026.

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Year Published: 2021

Final report to SCEC on the October 27, 2020 SCEC workshop ‘dynamic rupture TAG – The 2020 ingredients workshop – Rock properties (SCEC rroject 20188)’

This workshop was the third in our series of four SCEC5 workshops designed to evaluate the importance of each of the four ingredients required for dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. The four ingredients are: fault geometry, fault friction, rock properties, and initial stress conditions (Figure 1). The previous two workshops in the ‘...

Harris, Ruth A.; Barall, Michael

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Year Published: 2021

Forecasting induced earthquake hazard using a hydromechanical earthquake nucleation model

In response to the dramatic increase in earthquake rates in the central United States, the U.S Geological Survey began releasing 1 yr earthquake hazard models for induced earthquakes in 2016. Although these models have been shown to accurately forecast earthquake hazard, they rely purely on earthquake statistics because there was no precedent...

Rubinstein, Justin; Barbour, Andrew; Norbeck, Jack H

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Year Published: 2021

Evolution of fluid transmissivity and strength recovery of shear fractures under hydrothermal conditions

Geothermal systems rely on the presence of long-lived and high-volume, permeable fracture systems. The creation, reactivation, and sustainability of these systems depend on complex coupling among thermal, hydraulic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) processes occurring in geothermal reservoirs. In part due to a paucity of experimental data, the...

Jeppson, Tamara Nicole; Lockner, David A.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Taron, Joshua M.

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Year Published: 2021

Characterizing fault roughness—Are faults rougher at long or short wavelengths?

Changes in fault roughness with scale, “scaling,” is the topic of this report; changes are considered using a general power law relation between some measure of surface height, H, and another of length, L, H=kLn, where k is a constant and n is an exponent that characterizes the scaling. Extensive profile measurements of natural fault surfaces show...

Beeler, Nicholas M.
Beeler, N.M., 2021, Characterizing fault roughness—Are faults rougher at long or short wavelengths?: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1134, 15 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201134.

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Year Published: 2021

Field response and surface rupture characteristics of the 2020 M6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake, central Walker Lane, Nevada

The M 6.5 Monte Cristo Range earthquake that occurred in the central Walker Lane on 15 May 2020 was the largest earthquake in Nevada in 66 yr and resulted in a multidisciplinary scientific field response. The earthquake was the result of left‐lateral slip along largely unmapped parts of the Candelaria fault, one of a series of east–...

Koehler, Richard D; Dee, Seth; Elliott, Austin John; Hatem, Alexandra Elise; Pickering, Alexandra; Pierce, Ian; Seitz, Gordon G.

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Year Published: 2021

A geology and geodesy based model of dynamic earthquake rupture on the Rodgers Creek‐Hayward‐Calaveras Fault System, California

The Hayward fault in California's San Francisco Bay area produces large earthquakes, with the last occurring in 1868. We examine how physics‐based dynamic rupture modeling can be used to numerically simulate large earthquakes on not only the Hayward fault, but also its connected companions to the north and south, the Rodgers Creek and Calaveras...

Harris, Ruth A.; Barall, Michael; Lockner, David A.; Moore, Diane E.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell; Funning, Gareth J.; Morrow, Carolyn A.; Kyriakopoulos, Christodoulos; Eberhart-Phillips, Donna

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Year Published: 2021

Apparent earthquake rupture predictability

To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless...

Meier, M.-A.; Ampuero, P.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Page, Morgan T.