Synthesis and Forecasts of Piñon-Juniper Woodland Die-off Active
Drought, hotter temperatures, and insect outbreaks are affecting dryland ecosystems across the globe. Pinon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a widespread vegetation type common to drylands of North America, which have been hit particularly hard by a warming climate. Specifically, mass tree die-off events are transforming PJ woodland structure, composition, and distributions. This project aims to synthesize the recent patterns of PJ woodland die-off across the four corners region (Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico) as observed from annual aerial surveys collected by the US Forest Service Forest Health Program. These data will be used to build a spatially explicit forecast model that predicts the likelihood of observing PJ woodland die-off based on topography, soils, and climate. Such tools will help inform management of PJ woodlands under continued climate change.
Phase 1 of this project will synthesize the spatial and temporal patterns of pinon-juniper die-off using aerial detection surveys (ADS) from the US Forest Service. These surveys are flown annually across forested lands to characterize bark beetle and other insect mortality, which is often driven by extreme drought and tree stress.
Phase 2 of this project will characterize the mortality niche, using the synthesized data from ADS to build models of tree mortality. Using gridded estimates of climate, weather, soils, topography, and biotic interactions, we will develop predictive models of when and where mortality may occur. These predictions will be shared online (here!) with managers of PJ woodlands to inform anticipatory and adaptive natural resource management.
This project is just getting off the ground, so stay tuned to this page for updates, forecast maps, data releases, and publications.
Drought, hotter temperatures, and insect outbreaks are affecting dryland ecosystems across the globe. Pinon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a widespread vegetation type common to drylands of North America, which have been hit particularly hard by a warming climate. Specifically, mass tree die-off events are transforming PJ woodland structure, composition, and distributions. This project aims to synthesize the recent patterns of PJ woodland die-off across the four corners region (Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico) as observed from annual aerial surveys collected by the US Forest Service Forest Health Program. These data will be used to build a spatially explicit forecast model that predicts the likelihood of observing PJ woodland die-off based on topography, soils, and climate. Such tools will help inform management of PJ woodlands under continued climate change.
Phase 1 of this project will synthesize the spatial and temporal patterns of pinon-juniper die-off using aerial detection surveys (ADS) from the US Forest Service. These surveys are flown annually across forested lands to characterize bark beetle and other insect mortality, which is often driven by extreme drought and tree stress.
Phase 2 of this project will characterize the mortality niche, using the synthesized data from ADS to build models of tree mortality. Using gridded estimates of climate, weather, soils, topography, and biotic interactions, we will develop predictive models of when and where mortality may occur. These predictions will be shared online (here!) with managers of PJ woodlands to inform anticipatory and adaptive natural resource management.
This project is just getting off the ground, so stay tuned to this page for updates, forecast maps, data releases, and publications.