Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes Completed

Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and the M=5.8 Virginia quake, and it marks the bicentennial of the enigmatic but destructive 1811 - 1812 M~7 ½ New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes, each event an example of how poorly we can forecast earthquake rates or their ultimate size in the planet’s vast intraplate regions far from plate boundaries. The goal of the Global Earthquake Recurrence group is to reassess earthquake rates, their frequency - magnitude distributions, and maximum magnitudes synoptically for all of the major plate boundary and intraplate environments, so that we can build improved models of seismic threat for humanity, and so we can base the U.S. hazard estimates on a more robust global dataset and analysis. The budget of this project would be supported equally by the Powell Center and by the Global Earthquake Model.

Publications:
Brooks, E. M., Stein, S., & Spencer, B. D. (2015). Comparing the Performance of Japans Earthquake Hazard Maps to Uniform and Randomized Maps. Seismological Research Letters, 87(1). 1-13.http://doi.org/10.1785/0220150100 

Stein, S., Brooks, E., and Spencer, B. (2014). Metrics for Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance. Article published online, 1-20. Website: http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth/Texts/metrics.pdf

Stein, S., and Friedrich, A. (2014). How much can we clear the crystal ball? Astronomy & Geophysics, 55(2), 2.11-2.17. doi: 10.1093/astrogeo/atu076

Stein, S., Spencer, B.D., Brooks, E. (2015). Bayes and BOGSAT: Issues in When and How to Revise Earthquake Hazard Maps. Seismological Research Letters, 86(6-10). doi: 10.1785/0220140215

Stein, S., and Stein, J. (2013). How good do natural hazard assessments need to be? GSA Today, 23(4), 60-61. doi: 10.1130/GSATG167GW.1

Stein, R.S., and Stirling, M.W., (2015). Seismic Hazard Assessment: Honing the Debate, Testing the Models. EOS, 96. doi:10.1029/2015EO031841

Stein, R.S., and Toda, S. (2013). Megacity Megaquakes--Two Near Misses. Science, 341(6148), 850-852. doi: 10.1126/science.1238944

Stirling, M. W. (2014). The Continued Utility of Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment. Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disasters (pp. 359-376). doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-394848-9.00013-4