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Gavin P Hayes

I am a seismologist and program coordinator with the USGS, based in in Golden, CO. I oversee the activities of the Earthquake Hazards, Geomagnetism, and Global Seismographic Network (GSN) Programs within the Natural Hazards Mission Area.

Gavin Hayes is the Senior Science Advisor for Earthquake and Geologic Hazards at USGS. In this position, he oversees the Earthquake Hazards, Geomagnetism, and Global Seismographic Network (GSN) Programs. Hayes joined the USGS in 2007, after receiving a doctoral degree in geosciences from Pennsylvania State University, and master’s and bachelor’s degrees from the University of Leeds in England. He was a post-doctoral scholar with the USGS National Earthquake Information Center before being hired permanently in 2012, and was a Research Geophysicist with that group from 2012-2020.

As part of the NEIC, Hayes helped to lead the USGS real time response to domestic and global earthquakes, rapidly characterizing the source properties of earthquakes, and interpreting events within their regional tectonic context. Hayes has over 80 publications in the areas of seismology, tectonics, geodesy and natural hazards, and in the applications of these subjects to earthquake safety, hazard and risk mitigation.

Education and Certifications

  • Gavin Hayes (Ph.D., Penn State, 2007)

Science and Products

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The global distribution of models included in Slab2.

Collection of 3D Geometries of Global Subduction Zones

Release Date: NOVEMBER 12, 2018 A new picture of the geometry of subducting slabs around the world, the locations of the world’s largest earthquakes.
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards
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Collection of 3D Geometries of Global Subduction Zones

Release Date: NOVEMBER 12, 2018 A new picture of the geometry of subducting slabs around the world, the locations of the world’s largest earthquakes.
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World map showing the global distribution of earthquakes in gray scale.

Future Opportunities in Regional and Global Seismic Network Monitoring and Science

The past decade has seen improvements in computational efficiency, seismic data coverage, and communication technology - driven by societal expectation for timely, accurate information. While aspects of earthquake research have taken advantage of this evolution, the adoption of improvements in earthquake monitoring has not been fully leveraged. In real-time monitoring, earthquakes are characterize
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
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Future Opportunities in Regional and Global Seismic Network Monitoring and Science

The past decade has seen improvements in computational efficiency, seismic data coverage, and communication technology - driven by societal expectation for timely, accurate information. While aspects of earthquake research have taken advantage of this evolution, the adoption of improvements in earthquake monitoring has not been fully leveraged. In real-time monitoring, earthquakes are characterize
Learn More
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes

Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and the M...
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John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
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Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes

Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and the M...
Learn More

Incorporating teleseismic tomography data into models of upper mantle slab geometry

Earthquake-based models of slab geometry are limited by the distribution of earthquakes within a subducting slab, which is often heterogeneous. The fast seismic velocity signature of slabs in tomography studies is independent of the distribution of earthquakes within the slab, providing a critical constraint on slab geometry when earthquakes are absent. In order to utilize this constraint, researc
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Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismicity of the Earth 1900–2018

This map illustrates 119 years of global seismicity in the context of global plate tectonics and the Earth’s physiography. Primarily designed for use by earth scientists, engineers, and educators, this map provides a comprehensive overview of strong (magnitude [M] 5.5 and larger) earthquakes since 1900. The map clearly identifies the locations of the “great” earthquakes (M 8.0 and larger) and the
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismicity of the Earth 1900–2018

This map illustrates 119 years of global seismicity in the context of global plate tectonics and the Earth’s physiography. Primarily designed for use by earth scientists, engineers, and educators, this map provides a comprehensive overview of strong (magnitude [M] 5.5 and larger) earthquakes since 1900. The map clearly identifies the locations of the “great” earthquakes (M 8.0 and larger) and the
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Natural Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Filter Total Items: 67

A global catalog of calibrated earthquake locations

We produced a globally distributed catalog of earthquakes and nuclear explosions with calibrated hypocenters, referred to as the Global Catalog of Calibrated Earthquake Locations (GCCEL). This dataset currently contains 18,782 events in 289 clusters with >3.2 million arrival times observed at 19,258 stations. The term “calibrated” refers to the property that the hypocenters are minimally biased by
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Natural Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

A ground motion model for GNSS peak ground displacement

We present an updated ground‐motion model (GMM) for MwMw 6–9 earthquakes using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of the peak ground displacement (PGD). Earthquake GMMs inform a range of Earth science and engineering applications, including source characterization, seismic hazard evaluations, loss estimates, and seismic design standards. A typical GMM is characterized by simpl
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Natural Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Seismic monitoring during crises at the NEIC in support of the ANSS

Over the past two decades, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) has overcome many operational challenges. These range from minor disruptions, such as power outages, to significant operational changes, including system reconfiguration to handle unique earthquake sequences and the need to handle distributed work during a pandemic. Our ability to overcome cr

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Natural Hazards, Volcano Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Volcano Science Center

Leveraging deep learning in global 24/7 real-time earthquake monitoring at the National Earthquake Information Center

Machine‐learning algorithms continue to show promise in their application to seismic processing. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) is exploring the adoption of these tools to aid in simultaneous local, regional, and global real‐time earthquake monitoring. As a first step, we describe a simple framework to incorporate deep‐learning tools into NEIC operations.
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Natural Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Geometric controls on megathrust earthquakes

The role of subduction zone geometry in the nucleation and propagation of great-sized earthquake ruptures is an important topic for earthquake hazard, since knowing how big an earthquake can be on a given fault is fundamentally important. Past studies have shown subducting bathymetric features (e.g. ridges, fracture zones, seamount chains) may arrest a propagating rupture. Other studies have corre
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Natural Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Structural control on megathrust rupture and slip behavior: Insights from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales Ecuador earthquake

The heterogeneous seafloor topography of the Nazca Plate as it enters the Ecuador subduction zone provides an opportunity to document the influence of seafloor roughness on slip behavior and megathrust rupture. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Pedernales Ecuador earthquake was followed by a rich and active postseismic sequence. An internationally coordinated rapid response effort installed a temporary seismic netw
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Natural Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

USGS near-real-time products-and their use-for the 2018 Anchorage earthquake

In the minutes to hours after a major earthquake, such as the recent 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage event, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produces a suite of interconnected earthquake products that provides diverse information ranging from basic earthquake source parameters to loss estimates. The 2018 Anchorage earthquake is the first major domestic earthquake to occur since several new USGS products ha
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities

Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete

Whether large and very large earthquakes are distinguishable from each other early on in the rupture process has been a subject often debated over the past several decades. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first few seconds of an earthquake scales with the final magnitude of the event, implying determinism. Other studies have shown that the recordings
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Global earthquake response with imaging geodesy: recent examples from the USGS NEIC

The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center leads real-time efforts to provide rapid and accurate assessments of the impacts of global earthquakes, including estimates of ground shaking, ground failure, and the resulting human impacts. These efforts primarily rely on analysis of the seismic wavefield to characterize the source of the earthquake, which in turn informs a suite
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

National earthquake information center strategic plan, 2019–23

Executive SummaryDamaging earthquakes occur regularly around the world; since the turn of the 20th century, hundreds of earthquakes have caused significant loss of life and (or) millions of dollars or more in economic losses. While most of these did not directly affect the United States and its Territories, by studying worldwide seismicity we can better understand how to mitigate the effects of ea
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

The 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgeleh–Sarpolzahab (Iran) earthquake and active tectonics of the Lurestan arc

The 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt by a factor of ∼10 in seismic moment. Exploiting local, regional, and teleseismic data and synthetic aperture radar interferometry imagery, we characterize the rupture, its aftershock sequence, background seismicity, and regional tectonics. The mainshock rup
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Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Incorporating teleseismic tomography data into models of upper mantle slab geometry

Earthquake-based models of slab geometry are limited by the distribution of earthquakes within a subducting slab, which is often heterogeneous. The fast seismic velocity signature of slabs in tomography studies is independent of the distribution of earthquakes within the slab, providing a critical constraint on slab geometry when earthquakes are absent. In order to utilize this constraint, researc
By
Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Slab2

A three-dimensional compilation of global subduction geometries, separated into regional models for each major subduction zone.

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Earthquake Hazards
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Bill Barnhart Selected as the Earthquake Hazards Program Office Assistant Coordinator

The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is pleased to announce that Bill Barnhart has been selected as the Earthquake Hazards Program Office Assistant...

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National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) Leads Meeting on the Future of Earthquake Research and Monitoring

What are the next goals for the NEIC?

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Science and Products