Gavin P Hayes
I am a seismologist with the USGS in Golden. I conduct research on large earthquakes and their causes, and am a coordinator of NEICs response to global earthquakes. I implemented several of the tools NEIC uses to rapidly characterize earthquakes, including the W-phase moment tensor & finite fault inversion algorithms. I also developed and manage the Slab2 subduction zone geometry database.
Biography
Gavin Hayes (Ph.D., Penn State, 2007) is a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, CO. His work is focused on issues relating tectonics, earthquake seismogenesis, and earthquake hazards mainly in the context of global subduction zones. Since joining the NEIC, Gavin has developed approaches to constrain the three-dimensional geometry of subducting plates from their shallowest definition at oceanic trenches, to their deepest seismic extent in the mid-mantle, using global earthquake catalogs and active source seismic data, coupled with probabilistic assessments of location uncertainties. Using these approaches he created and manages the “Slab1.0” database, and its recent update, “Slab2”. He uses these models to study the relationships between fault geometry and earthquake rupture. Gavin is also a senior scientist heavily involved in the real time response to earthquakes at the NEIC, helping to rapidly characterize the source properties of earthquakes using moment tensor inversions and finite fault modeling, and interpreting events within their regional tectonic context to provide the public, press and scientific community a comprehensive understanding of why a specific event has occurred. He also manages databases for W-phase and rapid finite fault modeling results.
Science and Products
Collection of 3D Geometries of Global Subduction Zones
Release Date: NOVEMBER 12, 2018
A new picture of the geometry of subducting slabs around the world, the locations of the world’s largest earthquakes.
Future Opportunities in Regional and Global Seismic Network Monitoring and Science
The past decade has seen improvements in computational efficiency, seismic data coverage, and communication technology - driven by societal expectation for timely, accurate information. While aspects of earthquake research have taken advantage of this evolution, the adoption of improvements in earthquake monitoring has not been fully leveraged. In real-time monitoring, earthquakes are...
Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes
Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and...
Characterizing large earthquakes before rupture is complete
Whether large and very large earthquakes are distinguishable from each other early on in the rupture process has been a subject often debated over the past several decades. Studies have shown that the frequency content of radiated seismic energy in the first few seconds of an earthquake scales with the final magnitude of the event, implying...
Melgar, Diego; Hayes, Gavin P. Global earthquake response with imaging geodesy: recent examples from the USGS NEIC
The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center leads real-time efforts to provide rapid and accurate assessments of the impacts of global earthquakes, including estimates of ground shaking, ground failure, and the resulting human impacts. These efforts primarily rely on analysis of the seismic wavefield to characterize the...
Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Wald, David J.
National earthquake information center strategic plan, 2019–23
Executive SummaryDamaging earthquakes occur regularly around the world; since the turn of the 20th century, hundreds of earthquakes have caused significant loss of life and (or) millions of dollars or more in economic losses. While most of these did not directly affect the United States and its Territories, by studying worldwide seismicity we can...
Hayes, Gavin P.; Earle, Paul S.; Benz, Harley M.; Wald, David J.; Yeck, William L. Incorporating teleseismic tomography data into models of upper mantle slab geometry
Earthquake-based models of slab geometry are limited by the distribution of earthquakes within a subducting slab, which is often heterogeneous. The fast seismic velocity signature of slabs in tomography studies is independent of the distribution of earthquakes within the slab, providing a critical constraint on slab geometry when earthquakes are...
Portner, Daniel E.; Hayes, Gavin P. Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model
Subduction zones are home to the most seismically active faults on the planet. The shallow megathrust interfaces of subduction zones host our largest earthquakes and are likely the only faults capable of magnitude 9+ ruptures. Despite these facts, our knowledge of subduction zone geometry—which likely plays a key role in determining the spatial...
Hayes, Gavin P.; Moore, Ginevra; Portner, Daniel E.; Hearne, Mike; Flamme, Hanna E.; Furtney, Maria; Smoczyk, Gregory M. Systematic observations of the slip pulse properties of large earthquake ruptures
In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of faults and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture; however, due to a variety of...
Melgar, Diego; Hayes, Gavin P. 2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile
In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M8.0 in March 1985. The history of large earthquakes in this...
Nealy, Jennifer; Herman, Matthew W.; Moore, Ginevra; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric A.; Barrientos, Sergio E Integrated geophysical characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake
On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for the mainshock, one using teleseismic broadband...
Herman, Matthew W.; Nealy, Jennifer; Yeck, William L.; Barnhart, William D.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Benz, Harley M. Alternative rupture-scaling relationships for subduction interface and other offshore environments
Alternative fault-rupture-scaling relationships are developed for Mw 7.1– 9.5 subduction interface earthquakes using a new database of consistently derived finitefault rupture models from teleseismic inversion. Scaling relationships are derived for rupture area, rupture length, rupture width, maximum slip, and average slip. These relationships...
Allen, Trevor; Hayes, Gavin P. The finite, kinematic rupture properties of great-sized earthquakes since 1990
Here, I present a database of >160 finite fault models for all earthquakes of M 7.5 and above since 1990, created using a consistent modeling approach. The use of a common approach facilitates easier comparisons between models, and reduces uncertainties that arise when comparing models generated by different authors, data sets and modeling...
Hayes, Gavin P. The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR
The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary...
Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Berman, Eric; Barnhart, William D. Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injection hazard mitigation efforts
The 3 September 2016, Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake was the largest recorded earthquake in the state of Oklahoma. Seismic and geodetic observations of the Pawnee sequence, including precise hypocenter locations and moment tensor modeling, shows that the Pawnee earthquake occurred on a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip basement fault that...
Yeck, William L.; Hayes, Gavin P.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Barnhart, William D.; Earle, Paul S.; Benz, Harley M.
Slab2
A three-dimensional compilation of global subduction geometries, separated into regional models for each major subduction zone.
National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) Leads Meeting on the Future of Earthquake Research and Monitoring
What are the next goals for the NEIC?