In cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the University of Maine, USGS is using their Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to forecast how water resources might be affected by possible fluctuations in climate.

“With this project, USGS is looking to create data, reports, maps, an accessible web tool, and other resources for our partners to use and distribute to focus groups including farmers and the agricultural community,” said USGS Physical Scientist Sarah Murphy, the lead researcher on the project. 

By communicating how water resources could be affected by climate change in a variety of formats, USDA and University of Maine will be able to decipher which information is the most useful to farmers – and what type of outreach is the most effective. In addition, USDA and University of Maine will also study how the farmers will adapt new strategies to combat potential changes in their water supply.

The Model

The USGS PRMS is a deterministic model that produces output values for streamflow and other watershed impacts (such as water storage and runoff) based on various combinations of climate and land usage inputs. USGS is currently adjusting the model with New England’s watershed boundary data to generate water cycle responses specific to New England’s topographic characteristics. Five Global Climate Model and two emissions scenarios will be used in the model to forecast predictions over the next century. The results produced by the model may include statistics on streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, snowfall and snowmelt, and direct surface runoff, among others. 

Understanding how these outputs could respond to changes in temperature and precipitation can help scientists evaluate the bearing it may have on the agricultural industry throughout New England. 

Communicating the Results to Farmers

USGS will publish a scientific investigations report describing the development and results of the model as well as the model’s calibration settings and climate statistics. Additionally, the accessible web tool to be created is an interactive map that provides the model output results for any address entered. This tool will enable farmers to see how their area of land could be impacted by future changes in water resources. 

Based on these findings, USDA and the University of Maine will produce informational resources for farmers that: provide an analysis of the model results, describe ways in which farmers can adapt to the model’s forecasted water resource changes, and, ultimately, summarize how New England farmers do adapt to these model results through changed processes and water management.

Media

Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details