Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge in the Navajo Nation and Surrounding Region, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico
Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges on unregulated streams at gaging stations or ungaged stream sites in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico are necessary for flood hazard mapping.
The 100-year recurrence interval is mandated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency for mapping flood-hazard areas for housing development. The magnitude of the peak discharge with a 100-year recurrence interval has an annual exceedance frequency of 1-percent and occurs, on average, at least once in a 100-year period. The United States Congress authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to map flood-hazard areas for the Navajo Nation. Engineers and hydrologists of the Bureau of Indian Affairs, USACE, and Navajo Nation requested the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region, and to update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites.
OBJECTIVES:
The objectives of this project is to update estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharge at gaging stations on the basis of 13 additional years (since 1986) of recorded data and improved equations for estimates of magnitude and frequency of peak discharge at ungaged sites. The estimates will be determined using improved geographical information system (GIS) methods for determination of basin and climatic characteristics. Annual peak-discharge data for the period of record through 1999 will be used for all gaging stations. Data from outside the boundaries of the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico also will be used to ensure that all representative regional data will be used to develop the equations. The magnitudes of peak discharges will be determined for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years for 123 gaging stations on streams with unregulated flows that generally had 10 or more years of record. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites will be developed for three flood regions. Two regions are the same as those (Flood Region 8 and Region 11) in the report by Thomas and others (1997). The third Region will include sites that are located above 7,500 feet in elevation.
REFERENCES CITED:
Bonnin, G.M., Todd, D., Lin, B., Parzybok, T., Yekta, M. and Riley, D., 2004, Precipitation-frequency atlas of the western United States, volume 1-- Semiarid Southwest (Arizona, Southeast California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah): National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Atlas 14, 246 p.
Crippen, J.R., 1978, Composite log-Pearson Type III frequency-magnitude curve of annual floods: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 78-352, 5 p.
Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., and Phillips, D.L., 1994, A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain: Journal of Applied Meteorology. v. 33, p. 140-158.
Daly, C., 1998, Arizona average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http:// www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/AZ.
Daly, D., 1998, Colorado average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http:/ /www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/CO.
Daly, D., 1998, New Mexico average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/NM.
Daly, D., 1998, Utah average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http:// www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/UT.
Dempster, G.R., 1981, Peak flow file, chapter I, section B, WATSTORE user's guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 79-1336-I, v. 4, p. B-1 to B-58.
Dempster, G.R., 1983, Streamflow basin characteristics, chapter II, section A, WATSTORE user's guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 79-1336-I, v. 4, p. A-24 to A-34.
ESRI, 1999, ARC/INFO version 8.0.1: Redlands, Calif., Environmental Systems Research Institute, variously paged.
Hardison, C.H., 1971, Prediction error of regression estimates of streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, in Geological Survey Research 1971: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 750-C, P. C228-C236.
Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, Guidelines for determining peak discharge frequency: Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, Office of Water Data Coordination, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., 28 p. and appendices.
Jarrett, R.D., and Costa, J.E., 1982, Multidisciplinary approach to the flood hydrology of foothill streams in Colorado, in Proceedings, International Symposium of Hydrometerology: Denver, Colorado, American Water Resources Association, June 1982, p. 565-569.
Kirby, W.H., 1981, Peak flow file, chapter I, section C, WATSTORE user.s guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 79-1336-I, v. 4, p. C-1 to C-57.
Lumb, A.M., Kittle, J.L., Jr., and Flynn, K.M., 1990, User.s manual for ANNIE, a computer program for interactive hydrologic analyses and data management: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 89-4080, 236 p.
Miller, J.F., Frederick, R.H., and Tracey, R.J., 1973, Precipitation-frequency atlas of the western United States, volume IV--New Mexico: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Atlas 2, 43 p.
Minitab, Inc., 2003, Meet Minitab-release 14 for Windows, 2003: State College, Penn., p. 1-1 to 11-22.
New Mexico Department of Transportation, 1995, Drainage Manual Volume 1, Hydrology: Preliminary Design Bureau/Drainage Section, NMDOT, Santa Fe, NM, 92 p. and appendices.
Saur, V.B., 1974, Flood characteristics of Oklahoma Streams: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigation 52-73, 301 p.
Stedinger, J.R., and Tasker, G.D., 1985, Regional hydrologic analysis--ordinary, weighted, and generalized least squares compared: Water Resources Research, v. 21, no. 9, p. 1421-1432.
Tasker, G.D., Eychaner, J.H., and Stedinger, J.R., 1986, Application of generalized least-squares in regional hydrologic regression analysis: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2310, p. 107-115.
Thomas, B.E., Hjalmarson, H.W., and Waltemeyer, S.D., 1997, Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in the southwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 2433, 195 p.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1977, National handbook of recommended methods for water-data acquisition: Chap. VII, Office of Water Data Coordination (rev. June 1978), p. 9-15.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1991, National water summary 1988-89--Hydrologic events and floods and droughts: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2375, 591 p.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1999, National elevation dataset (NED) online data: U.S. Geological Survey, EROS Data Center, edition 1, accessed July 10, 2000, at URL http://edcnts12.cr.usgs.gov/ned.
U.S. Geological Survey, 2000, The GIS Weasel online data and program: U.S. Geological Survey, Branch of Regional Research, version 3.40, accessed July 10, 2000, at URL http://www.brr.cr.usgs/gov/ weasel.
U.S. Geological Survey, 2001, NWISWeb Data for the Nation-online data: U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, accessed July 10, 2003, at URL http://waterdata.usgs.gov/.
Waltemeyer, S.D., 1986, Techniques for estimating flood-flow frequency for unregulated streams in New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 86-4104, 56
Waltemeyer, S.D., 1996, Analysis of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharge and maximum observed peak discharge in New Mexico: U.S.Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 96-4112, 79.
Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges on unregulated streams at gaging stations or ungaged stream sites in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico are necessary for flood hazard mapping.
The 100-year recurrence interval is mandated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency for mapping flood-hazard areas for housing development. The magnitude of the peak discharge with a 100-year recurrence interval has an annual exceedance frequency of 1-percent and occurs, on average, at least once in a 100-year period. The United States Congress authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to map flood-hazard areas for the Navajo Nation. Engineers and hydrologists of the Bureau of Indian Affairs, USACE, and Navajo Nation requested the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region, and to update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites.
OBJECTIVES:
The objectives of this project is to update estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharge at gaging stations on the basis of 13 additional years (since 1986) of recorded data and improved equations for estimates of magnitude and frequency of peak discharge at ungaged sites. The estimates will be determined using improved geographical information system (GIS) methods for determination of basin and climatic characteristics. Annual peak-discharge data for the period of record through 1999 will be used for all gaging stations. Data from outside the boundaries of the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico also will be used to ensure that all representative regional data will be used to develop the equations. The magnitudes of peak discharges will be determined for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years for 123 gaging stations on streams with unregulated flows that generally had 10 or more years of record. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites will be developed for three flood regions. Two regions are the same as those (Flood Region 8 and Region 11) in the report by Thomas and others (1997). The third Region will include sites that are located above 7,500 feet in elevation.
REFERENCES CITED:
Bonnin, G.M., Todd, D., Lin, B., Parzybok, T., Yekta, M. and Riley, D., 2004, Precipitation-frequency atlas of the western United States, volume 1-- Semiarid Southwest (Arizona, Southeast California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah): National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Atlas 14, 246 p.
Crippen, J.R., 1978, Composite log-Pearson Type III frequency-magnitude curve of annual floods: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 78-352, 5 p.
Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., and Phillips, D.L., 1994, A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain: Journal of Applied Meteorology. v. 33, p. 140-158.
Daly, C., 1998, Arizona average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http:// www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/AZ.
Daly, D., 1998, Colorado average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http:/ /www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/CO.
Daly, D., 1998, New Mexico average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/NM.
Daly, D., 1998, Utah average monthly or annual precipitation, 1961-90: Water and climate Center of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland Oreg., accessed August 16, 2000, at URL http:// www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/UT.
Dempster, G.R., 1981, Peak flow file, chapter I, section B, WATSTORE user's guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 79-1336-I, v. 4, p. B-1 to B-58.
Dempster, G.R., 1983, Streamflow basin characteristics, chapter II, section A, WATSTORE user's guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 79-1336-I, v. 4, p. A-24 to A-34.
ESRI, 1999, ARC/INFO version 8.0.1: Redlands, Calif., Environmental Systems Research Institute, variously paged.
Hardison, C.H., 1971, Prediction error of regression estimates of streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, in Geological Survey Research 1971: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 750-C, P. C228-C236.
Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, Guidelines for determining peak discharge frequency: Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, Office of Water Data Coordination, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., 28 p. and appendices.
Jarrett, R.D., and Costa, J.E., 1982, Multidisciplinary approach to the flood hydrology of foothill streams in Colorado, in Proceedings, International Symposium of Hydrometerology: Denver, Colorado, American Water Resources Association, June 1982, p. 565-569.
Kirby, W.H., 1981, Peak flow file, chapter I, section C, WATSTORE user.s guide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 79-1336-I, v. 4, p. C-1 to C-57.
Lumb, A.M., Kittle, J.L., Jr., and Flynn, K.M., 1990, User.s manual for ANNIE, a computer program for interactive hydrologic analyses and data management: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 89-4080, 236 p.
Miller, J.F., Frederick, R.H., and Tracey, R.J., 1973, Precipitation-frequency atlas of the western United States, volume IV--New Mexico: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Atlas 2, 43 p.
Minitab, Inc., 2003, Meet Minitab-release 14 for Windows, 2003: State College, Penn., p. 1-1 to 11-22.
New Mexico Department of Transportation, 1995, Drainage Manual Volume 1, Hydrology: Preliminary Design Bureau/Drainage Section, NMDOT, Santa Fe, NM, 92 p. and appendices.
Saur, V.B., 1974, Flood characteristics of Oklahoma Streams: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigation 52-73, 301 p.
Stedinger, J.R., and Tasker, G.D., 1985, Regional hydrologic analysis--ordinary, weighted, and generalized least squares compared: Water Resources Research, v. 21, no. 9, p. 1421-1432.
Tasker, G.D., Eychaner, J.H., and Stedinger, J.R., 1986, Application of generalized least-squares in regional hydrologic regression analysis: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2310, p. 107-115.
Thomas, B.E., Hjalmarson, H.W., and Waltemeyer, S.D., 1997, Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in the southwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Water Supply Paper 2433, 195 p.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1977, National handbook of recommended methods for water-data acquisition: Chap. VII, Office of Water Data Coordination (rev. June 1978), p. 9-15.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1991, National water summary 1988-89--Hydrologic events and floods and droughts: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2375, 591 p.
U.S. Geological Survey, 1999, National elevation dataset (NED) online data: U.S. Geological Survey, EROS Data Center, edition 1, accessed July 10, 2000, at URL http://edcnts12.cr.usgs.gov/ned.
U.S. Geological Survey, 2000, The GIS Weasel online data and program: U.S. Geological Survey, Branch of Regional Research, version 3.40, accessed July 10, 2000, at URL http://www.brr.cr.usgs/gov/ weasel.
U.S. Geological Survey, 2001, NWISWeb Data for the Nation-online data: U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, accessed July 10, 2003, at URL http://waterdata.usgs.gov/.
Waltemeyer, S.D., 1986, Techniques for estimating flood-flow frequency for unregulated streams in New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 86-4104, 56
Waltemeyer, S.D., 1996, Analysis of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharge and maximum observed peak discharge in New Mexico: U.S.Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 96-4112, 79.