Data release for "Multivariate SWAT streamflow and surface water storage calibration enables Upper Mississippi River Basin wetland change scenarios"

Surface water storage, including wetlands and lakes, is not typically considered in hydrological model calibrations. We tested a multivariate calibration process (Latin Hypercube Sampling), incorporating Sentinel-1/2 surface water storage, for a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model across the 0.5 million km^2 Upper Mississippi River Basin. While 19% of the 2000 parameter sets adequately simulated discharge (Kling-Gupta efficiency greater than 0.5), only 5% also adequately simulated surface water storage (mean absolute error less than 2 m), which reduced model output uncertainty. Using the best calibrated model, we found that changes in surface water storage capacity in watersheds with many non-floodplain wetlands (NFWs) most strongly affected discharge during the first annual peak flow, when storage was filling. Increases in upstream surface water storage capacity resulted in projected decreases in peak flow and flashiness, with changes persisting downstream to the watershed outlet. Our findings demonstrate the importance of including surface water storage in multivariate model calibration processes to inform flood impact predictions.

This data release contains daily SWAT-simulated river discharge outputs for subbasins in the UMRB. Specifically, it includes outputs from the baseline calibrated model and from the simulated scenarios where surface water storage capacity and area were changed in watersheds vulnerable to wetland loss (watersheds with many non-floodplain wetlands), ranging from 100% surface water loss to 100% surface water gain. This data release also includes corresponding shapefiles for UMRB subbasins.