Source code for determining the optimal set of spatio-temporal features for predicting burn probability in the state of California, USA
Wildfires play a critical role in determining ecosystem structure and function and pose serious risks to human life, property and ecosystem services. Burn probability (BP) models the likelihood that a location could burn. Simulation models are typically used to predict BP but are computationally intensive. Machine learning (ML) pipelines can predict BP and reduce computational intensity.
In this work, we tested approaches to reduce the set of input features used in an ML model to estimate BP for the state of California, USA, without loss of predictive performance. We used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the optimal set of features to use in our ML pipeline. Then, we mapped BP and compared model performance when using the reduced set and when using the whole set of features.
This software release contains all data preprocessing scripts used to process and sample the source data, the four pipelines evaluated in the study as well as the evaluation methods used to compare and map BP for the State of California, USA.
Citation Information
| Publication Year | 2026 |
|---|---|
| Title | Source code for determining the optimal set of spatio-temporal features for predicting burn probability in the state of California, USA |
| DOI | 10.5066/P96W3OBD |
| Authors | Javier A Pastorino Gonzalez, Joseph W Director, Ashis K. Biswas, Todd J Hawbaker |
| Product Type | Data Release |
| Record Source | USGS Asset Identifier Service (AIS) |
| USGS Organization | Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center |