What is the likelihood of a large earthquake at location X? Is it safe to go to X since they've been having a lot of earthquakes lately?
The National Seismic Hazards Mapping project provides an online Web tool for determining the probability of a large earthquake within 50 kilometers (~31 miles) of a specific location in the United States over a certain time period. The calculation is based on the latest available information from seismic hazard data.
However, asking if it's safe to travel somewhere because of recent earthquakes is almost the same question as "Can you predict earthquakes?" A particular area can be "having a lot of earthquakes" for many different reasons, and we usually cannot tell why. Sometimes there are many earthquakes because they are part of an aftershock sequence following a large earthquake. Depending on the magnitude and type of earthquake, these aftershocks can continue for days, weeks, or months.
Some areas are prone to swarms of earthquakes, particularly geothermal areas. Other times, an area has several small earthquakes and nothing more happens. Rarely, several earthquakes precede a larger earthquake, but they don't look any different from any other earthquake, so we don't know they're foreshocks until they actually become foreshocks. So, to answer the question “Is it safe...”, we don't know. You will have to make the decision based on whether or not you feel comfortable with your plans.
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What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake? What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake?
Around the world, the likelihood that an earthquake will be followed by a larger earthquake nearby and within a week is about 5%. When an earthquake occurs, it can trigger other earthquakes nearby in what seismologists call an earthquake sequence. In most sequences, these later earthquakes will be smaller than the first one. The first, largest earthquake is called the mainshock and the later...
What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area? What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area?
According to information supplied in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3: Los Angeles area: Within the next 30 years the probability is: 60% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7 46% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7 31% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5 will occur in the Los Angeles region. San Francisco Bay area: Within the next 30 years the probability is...
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction? What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things. Early warning is a notification that is issued after an earthquake starts. Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Here are more detailed descriptions of each...
Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future? Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future?
Not really. The USGS Seismic Hazard Maps website and the Unified Hazard Tool (for building custom maps) are designed to display the probability of different events that might occur in a several-year to several-decade period. The model bases all probability estimates on the average rate of earthquakes over long periods of time. As you shorten the time window, you should expect greater and greater...
How do I get earthquake hazard maps for locations outside of the U.S.? How do I get earthquake hazard maps for locations outside of the U.S.?
The USGS has seismic hazard maps for the US, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam & Marianas and Samoa & Pacific Islands. In addition, we have created some other Foreign Hazard Maps for Afghanistan, Haiti, South America, Southeast Asia and the State of Gujarat, India. For more information about hazard maps for other locations outside of the U.S. visit the GEM (Global Earthquake...
How are engineers working to make roads and buildings safer? How are engineers working to make roads and buildings safer?
Earthquake engineers are working to make roads and buildings safer in the event of major earthquakes. This includes both improving the design of new buildings and bridges as well as strengthening older units to incorporate the latest advances in seismic and structural engineering. The Federal Emergency Management Agency plays a central role in funding research and development for the purpose of...
Related
What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake? What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake?
Around the world, the likelihood that an earthquake will be followed by a larger earthquake nearby and within a week is about 5%. When an earthquake occurs, it can trigger other earthquakes nearby in what seismologists call an earthquake sequence. In most sequences, these later earthquakes will be smaller than the first one. The first, largest earthquake is called the mainshock and the later...
What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area? What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area?
According to information supplied in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3: Los Angeles area: Within the next 30 years the probability is: 60% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7 46% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7 31% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5 will occur in the Los Angeles region. San Francisco Bay area: Within the next 30 years the probability is...
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction? What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things. Early warning is a notification that is issued after an earthquake starts. Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Here are more detailed descriptions of each...
Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future? Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future?
Not really. The USGS Seismic Hazard Maps website and the Unified Hazard Tool (for building custom maps) are designed to display the probability of different events that might occur in a several-year to several-decade period. The model bases all probability estimates on the average rate of earthquakes over long periods of time. As you shorten the time window, you should expect greater and greater...
How do I get earthquake hazard maps for locations outside of the U.S.? How do I get earthquake hazard maps for locations outside of the U.S.?
The USGS has seismic hazard maps for the US, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam & Marianas and Samoa & Pacific Islands. In addition, we have created some other Foreign Hazard Maps for Afghanistan, Haiti, South America, Southeast Asia and the State of Gujarat, India. For more information about hazard maps for other locations outside of the U.S. visit the GEM (Global Earthquake...
How are engineers working to make roads and buildings safer? How are engineers working to make roads and buildings safer?
Earthquake engineers are working to make roads and buildings safer in the event of major earthquakes. This includes both improving the design of new buildings and bridges as well as strengthening older units to incorporate the latest advances in seismic and structural engineering. The Federal Emergency Management Agency plays a central role in funding research and development for the purpose of...