Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future?
Not really. This web site is designed to display the probability of different sources that might occur in a several-year to several-decade period. The model bases all probability estimates on mean rate of earthquakes over long periods. As you shorten the time window, you should expect greater and greater fluctuations in what may be observed from the mean behavior that would be observed if you had a thousand year time span at your disposal.
What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area?
What is the likelihood of a large earthquake at location X? Is it safe to go to X since they've been having a lot of earthquakes lately?
What is seismic hazard? What is a seismic hazard map? How are they made? How are they used? Why are there different maps, and which one should I use?
Why was an earthquake in Virginia felt at more than twice the distance than a similar-sized earthquake in California? The answer is one that many people may not realize. Earthquakes east of the Rocky Mountains can cause noticeable ground shaking at much farther distances than comparably-sized earthquakes in the West.
New seismic hazard and risk assessments can help at-risk communities prepare for future earthquake disasters
New Audiences, New Products for the National Seismic Hazard Maps
Friday's magnitude-5.2 earthquake in southern Illinois is a reminder that earthquakes are a national hazard.
A new geologic map of surficial deposits in the nine-county San Francisco Bay region that can be used to evaluate earthquake hazards has been released in digital form by the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park.
USGS map displaying intensity of potential ground shaking from natural and human-induced earthquakes. There is a small chance (one percent) that ground shaking intensity will occur at this level or higher. There is a greater chance (99 percent) that ground shaking will be lower than what is displayed in these maps.
USGS map displaying potential to experience damage from a natural or human-induced earthquake in 2017. Chances range from less than one percent to 12 percent.