What is the probability that an earthquake will occur in the Los Angeles Area? In the San Francisco Bay area?
Los Angeles area:
Within the next 30 years the probability is:
- 60% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7
- 46% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7
- 31% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5
will occur in the Los Angeles region.
San Francisco Bay area:
Within the next 30 years the probability is:
- 72% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7
- 51% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7
- 20% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5
will occur in the San Francisco region.
Learn More: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3
Related Content
How do I get earthquake hazard maps for locations outside of the U.S.?
How are engineers working to make roads and buildings safer?
What is the USGS doing to mitigate and respond to earthquake hazards?
Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future?
What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake?
What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction?
How do I decide whether or not to get earthquake insurance?
How do earthquakes affect buildings?
What is the likelihood of a large earthquake at location X? Is it safe to go to X since they've been having a lot of earthquakes lately?
How will my house hold up in an earthquake? Can the USGS send someone out to evaluate my property?
What are the earthquake hazards/risks where I live?
What is seismic hazard? What is a seismic hazard map? How are they made? How are they used? Why are there different maps, and which one should I use?
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better...
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and...
Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Wein, Anne M.; Cox, Dale A.; Porter, Keith A.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; LaPointe, Drew
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of...
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system
With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3),...
Field, Edward H.
United States Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Response
The primary goal of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Response is to ensure that the disaster response community has access to timely, accurate, and relevant geospatial products, imagery, and services during and after an emergency event. To accomplish this goal, products and services provided by the National Geospatial Program (NGP)...
Lamb, Rynn M.; Jones, Brenda K.
Preparing for a "Big One": The great southern California shakeout
The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. On November 13, 2008, over 5 million Southern Californians pretended that the magnitude-7.8 ShakeOut scenario earthquake was occurring and practiced actions derived from results of the ShakeOut Scenario, to reduce...
Jones, Lucile M.; Benthien, M.
The ShakeOut Scenario
This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness...
Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne
Earthquake hazards: a national threat
Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2)...
Putting down roots in earthquake country: Your handbook for the San Francisco Bay region
This handbook provides information about the threat posed by earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay region and explains how you can prepare for, survive, and recover from these inevitable events. If you live or work in the region, you need to know why you should be concerned with earthquakes, what you can expect during and after a quake, and what...
The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program - investing in a safer future
Filson, John R.; McCarthy, Jill; Ellsworth, William L.; Zoback, Mary Lou; Stauffer, Peter H.; Hendley, James W.
USGS provides update for the National Seismic Hazard Model
USGS experts recently released a study that incorporates the latest earthquake science findings into an update of the National Seismic Hazard Model for the “lower-48” United States. Read the full report here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/8755293019878199
USGS Rolls Out Groundbreaking Earthquake Study: The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
USGS collaborates with key academic, state, local, and industry partners to provide a new look at what could happen during a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Assessing Critical Infrastructure Damage After Earthquakes
Early on the morning of August 24, 2014, Loren Turner was awoken by clattering window blinds, a moving bed, and the sound of water splashing out of his backyard pool. He experienced what is now named the “South Napa Earthquake.”
New Audiences, New Products for the National Seismic Hazard Maps
New Audiences, New Products for the National Seismic Hazard Maps
California Can Learn From Recent Large Earthquakes
A new report issued by the American Red Cross and the U.S. Geological Survey documents the Chilean response and recovery efforts following the Feb. 2010 magnitude 8.8 earthquake and the lessons that California should learn from this disaster.
Advances in Science, Technology, have Bay Area better prepared for the next big earthquake
Twenty years after the Loma Prieta earthquake caused loss of life and widespread property damage, advances in science, technology and engineering have the San Francisco Bay Area better prepared for the next big earthquake. When the Loma Prieta quake hit just after 5 p.m. October 17, 1989 – 20 years ago Saturday – the digital age was in its infancy.
Bay Area better prepared since Loma Prieta earthquake
On October 17, minutes before the scheduled start of the third game of the 1989 World Series in San Francisco, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake rocked the California coast from Monterey to San Francisco. Centered near Loma Prieta peak in the mountains south of San Jose, the quake killed 63 people and caused an estimated $6 billion to $10 billion in property loss.
What Would a Great Earthquake do to the Buildings in Downtown Los Angeles?
A great earthquake along the southern San Andreas Fault could cause many tall buildings to collapse in Los Angeles, explains USGS earthquake expert Dr. Ken Hudnut in a new video interview.
Capturing the 'Big One': Computer Modeling of Interacting Faults Near Los Angeles
The San Andreas and neighboring faults near Los Angeles interact in surprising, and, in some cases, potentially dangerous ways, according to an article by U.S. Geological Survey scientists to be published in the Dec. 12, 2003, issue of the journal Science. The researchers reviewed lessons from past earthquakes and combined that with powerful computer modeling to reach their conclusions.
PubTalk 9/2018 - Hayward Earthquake
Title: The 150th Anniversary of the Damaging 1868 Hayward Earthquake: Why It Matters and How We Can Prepare for Its Repeat
- The Hayward Fault in the heart of the Bay Area is one of the most urbanized faults in the US.
- Studies of the fault reveal that it has produced 12 large earthquakes in the past 2000 years spaced 100-220 years apart.
- There
PubTalk 1/2018 — ShakeAlert: Path to West Coast EQ Early Warning
Title: ShakeAlert: The Path to West Coast Earthquake Early Warning ... how a few seconds can save lives and property
- The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system will begin limited operations this year.
- Alerts could save lives and properties but several challenges remain.
- With millions at risk, why isn't full public alerting happening yet?
PubTalk 5/2017 — Underwater secrets of the Hayward fault zone
Title: Underwater Secrets of the Hayward Fault Zone: Integrated 3D imaging to understand earthquake hazards
- Underwater imaging provides a unique opportunity to study urban fault hazards.
- How do we link surface structures to depths where earthquakes occur?
- How does "acoustic trenching" help us understand earthquake history?
3D likelihood California earthquake in the next 30 years
Three-dimensional perspective view of the likelihood that each region of California will experience a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years (6.7 matches the magnitude of the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 30 years is the typical duration of a homeowner mortgage).
The Gold Rush and the 1906 Earthquake
The Gold Rush and the 1906 Earthquake: How they combined to create the breakthrough discovery of modern seismic science
- Accidents of Gold Rush merchant marine navigation transformed a seismic disaster into a seminal discovery and led to San Francisco's extreme liquefaction vulnerability today.
- Just about everything that we love about the Bay area is
PubTalk 5/2015 — Breaking Badly:Forecasting California Earthquakes
by Morgan Page, USGS Research Geophysicist
- Scientists cannot currently predict the precise time, location, and size of future damaging earthquakes.
- Historical records of earthquakes in California date back over 150 years.
- Geologists have dug trenches to extend the known history on some faults back to around 1,000 years before
A map of ShakeOut scenario shaking in southern California
A map of ShakeOut scenario shaking in southern California.
Forecasting Earthquakes in California
A 99 percent chance of a magnitude-7 earthquake? That's the 30-year outlook for California, according to a new USGS State-wide earthquake forecast. Learn more in this interview with USGS geophysicist Tom Parsons.
San-Andreas Fault
Aerial photo of the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain. By Ikluft - Own work, GFDL, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=3106006
Traces of the Hayward Fault, California
The purpose of this map is to show the location of and evidence for recent movement on active fault traces within the Hayward Fault Zone, California. The mapped traces represent the integration of the following three different types of data: (1) geomorphic expression, (2) creep (aseismic fault slip),and (3) trench exposures.
ShakeOut Scenario
A simulation of the ShakeOut Scenario as described at shakeout.org/scenario. ShakeOut is an annual earthquake drill, always on the third Thursday of October. Learn more: shakeout.org