Projected Land Cover-Dependent Ecosystem Services Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands from 2070-2010

The goal of this project was to produce estimates of the change in three ecosystem services - water yield, sediment runoff, and reef productivity (or seafood benefits) - under climate change and three newly developed land cover scenarios. The developed land cover scenarios expanded upon the Hawaii Carbon Assessment by simulating future land cover scenarios. The resulting scenarios used measures of invasive species spread and fire-driven forest loss to compare baseline conditions of current ecosystem protection (Protection) with “No Protection”, and “Protection and Restoration” for years 2070-2100. Using the land cover scenarios as an input to the ecosystem services models the results for water yield and sediment yield benefits are provided as the difference between worse case scenario and protection scenarios, each as rasters of per pixel change and the reef productivity, or estimated fish catch per ha, is provided as a shapefile summarized by Moku (Hawaiian Land Division), only for the difference between Targeted Protection and No Protection.