Many studies have examined the effects of climate warming on lake stability, but few have addressed environmental changes concomitant with climate change, such as alterations in water clarity and lake inflow. Although air temperature rise is a predominant factor linked to lake thermal characteristics, climate-driven changes at watershed scales can substantially alter lake clarity and inflow, exacerbating the effects of future air warming on lake thermal conditions. Without accounting for potential changes in clarity and inflow, future thermal predictions could be inaccurate. We employed the General Lake Model to simulate future thermal conditions (relative thermal resistance to mixing; RTRM) of small (