Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and chain pickerel (Esox niger) identified as Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt predators in a reservoir system

Reservoir predation has been identified as a leading mortality source for smolts migrating through impounded river systems. We investigated smolt predation risk for an endangered Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population in the Weldon Dam reservoir in the Penobscot River, Maine, USA. In spring 2022, we characterized the fates of 390 tethered smolts. Smolts were exclusively predated by two predator species not native to the study area: chain pickerel (Esox niger, n = 43) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu, n = 42). Using Cox-proportional hazard analysis, we estimated that 23% (95% CI = 15%–29%) of tethered smolts were expected to be predated within a one-hour deployment. Water temperature was the primary driver of predation risk as predation probability increased from 10% to 33% when temperature increased from 5 to 15 °C. Smolts also incurred above-average predation risk when they were within 40 m of shore. We demonstrate that non-native fish predation may drive patterns of high impoundment mortality and that risk is spatially and temporally heterogeneous within these systems. Collectively, this study offers direct evidence of species-specific predation on Atlantic salmon smolts and illuminates potential strategies to mitigate predation risk during reservoir migration.