Andrew Michael
I love that seismology lets me study a fascinating natural process and use that knowledge to help people understand earthquakes and live with them safely. I combine observations of earthquakes with statistical models to assess hazards, evaluate earthquake predictions, seek to understand how geologic structures and tectonic forces cause earthquakes, and communicate that information to the public.
Andy Michael has been a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Science Center since 1986. He combines observations of earthquake processes and statistical models to determine long-term and short-term earthquake probabilities, to evaluate proposed earthquake prediction methods, and to better understand how stress and structure function as part of the seismogenic process. A graduate of MIT (B.S., 1981) and Stanford University (M.S., 1983, Ph.D. 1986), he has authored over 100 papers and reports. He was the Editor-in-Chief of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America from 2004 to 2010. He also served the Society as President and on its Board of Directors.
His outreach efforts include founding the Earthquake Science Center web site, which became part of earthquake.usgs.gov, in order to facilitate the rapid dissemination of earthquake information and a lecture and performance titled “The Music of Earthquakes.” That lecture combines music and seismology and features “Earthquake Quartet #1,” his composition for voice, cello, trombone, and sonified seismograms. He is a founder of an online educational resource: The Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis.
He currently works on the USGS aftershock forecasts under the Earthquake Processes, Probabilities, and Occurrence Project, long-term hazards assessments as part of the National Seismic Hazard Model Project and is a member of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council.
For his service to the Seismological Society of America he received its Distinguished Service Award in 2011. For his career contributions, he received the Department of the Interior’s Distinguished Service Award in 2019.
Science and Products
Could the M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake Sequence Trigger a Large Earthquake Nearby?
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
2017 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
Preliminary observations of the April 5th, 2024, Mw4.8 New Jersey earthquake
Aftershock forecasting
Forecasting the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model using gridded seismicity
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast
We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi
An interactive viewer to improve operational aftershock forecasts
An efficient, analytic solution using order statistics for probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment without the Poisson assumption
Prospective and retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Geological Survey public aftershock forecast for the 2019-2021 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake and aftershocks
Modeling the occurrence of M ∼ 5 caldera collapse-related earthquakes in Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i
2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii
An International Virtual Workshop on Global Seismology and Tectonics (IVWGST‐2020)
Global seismology and tectonics: A report on International Virtual Workshop on Global Seismology and Tectonics (IVWGST-2020)
OAF Tools - R package
Science and Products
Could the M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake Sequence Trigger a Large Earthquake Nearby?
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview
2017 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
2016 One-Year Seismic Hazard Forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from Induced and Natural Earthquakes
Preliminary observations of the April 5th, 2024, Mw4.8 New Jersey earthquake
Aftershock forecasting
Forecasting the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model using gridded seismicity
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast
We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemi