AftershockForecastfig6.gif
Detailed Description
An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used. As the aftershock sequence progresses and additional data are collected, this distribution can be treated as a prior distribution and updated using Bayes’ rule. Posterior distributions at subsequent time intervals are shown. Figure from Page et al. (2016).
Sources/Usage
Public Domain.
An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used. As the aftershock sequence progresses and additional data are collected, this distribution can be treated as a prior distribution and updated using Bayes’ rule. Posterior distributions at subsequent time intervals are shown. Figure from Page et al. (2016).