Predicted Probability (per million) based on WFPI and historic averages

Reliability diagram for the WLFP model. On average the risk of a large fire event was observed to be ~7 times greater when the predicted risk was extreme (risk category red; predicted class >7) than when the predicted risk was moderate (risk category turquoise; predicted class 1-2). Between year variability is demonstrated by the length of the boxes and the extended whiskers. The horizontal line, at ~1 per million, is the overall observed historic average.