Fire Danger Forecast

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USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, in conjunction with the US Forest Service Pacific Southwest (PSW) Region, has developed several new products for understanding and forecasting the probability of large wildland fires on all land in the conterminous U.S.

Fire Potential Index

Fire Potential Index
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Large Fire Probability

Large Fire Probability
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Expected Large Fires

Expected Large Fires
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News

Date published: October 15, 2020

Fire Science Critical for Combating Wildfires Out West

Visit our USGS Wildland Fire Science webpage to learn how USGS science is making a difference.

Date published: February 21, 2020

EROS Upgrades Fire Danger Forecast Mapping Tools

Tracking large fire potential in the past, present, and future through remotely sensed data just got a lot simpler.

The Fire Danger Forecast project from the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center near Sioux Falls, SD has updated its web viewer to allow users to more easily...

Date published: September 18, 2019

USGS Hazard Science – Understanding the Risks is Key to Preparedness

 Learn About USGS Hazards Science and More About National Preparedness Month:  The very nature of natural hazards means that they have the potential to impact a majority of Americans every year.  USGS science provides part of the foundation for emergency preparedness whenever and wherever disaster strikes.

Publications

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Year Published: 2014

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence...

Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Howard, Stephen; Burgan, Robert E.

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Year Published: 2012

United States Geological Survey fire science: fire danger monitoring and forecasting

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The...

Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.
United States Geological Survey fire science--Fire danger monitoring and forecasting; 2012; FS; 2012-3121; Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.

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Year Published: 2009

Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information

The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the forthcoming week and within federal lands, percentiles of the...

Preisler, H.K.; Burgan, R.E.; Eidenshink, J.C.; Klaver, Jacqueline M.; Klaver, R.W.
Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information; 2009; Article; Journal; International Journal of Wildland Fire; Preisler, H. K.; Burgan, R. E.; Eidenshink, J. C.; Klaver, J. M.; Klaver, R. W.