Range of sea ice extent models spread for northern hemisphere
CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5-year running mean). Time series of projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical reconstructed forcings. The dashed line represents nearly ice-free conditions (i.e., when sea ice extent is less than one million km2 for at least five consecutive years).
Adapated from Figure SPM.7 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.