HayWired Scenario - Movie

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The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. 

Get Ready! Analyses of impacts related to the HayWired earthquake scenario include estimates for potential fatalities, injuries, water outages, fires, and other major disruptions. These could potentially include: 800 deaths, 16,000 nonfatal injuries, property and direct business interruption losses of more than $82 billion from from shaking alone. The USGS and its partners are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake. Learn more: usgs.gov/haywired


Image Dimensions: 1280 x 720

Date Taken:

Length: 00:05:42

Location Taken: San Francisco, CA, US


The Hayward Fault: One of the most urbanized and dangerous faults in the United States. Millions of people live, work and travel near the fault each day. There’s a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault about every 100 to 220 years. The last one was 150 years ago. It’s coming and when the Hayward Fault ruptures…the roads, the pipes, the wires, the things that connect everyone to people and places …will go HayWired.  The USGS and its partners have created a comprehensive, detailed analysis based on the latest science -- a scenario depicting what might happen in a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault…before it happens.  This gives us a chance to envision our vulnerabilities and a chance to prepare. This new scenario is set on April 18, 2018… the anniversary of the 1906 Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire.  The following scenario explores the possibility of a Hayward Fault earthquake. It is not a prediction, and a real earthquake on the Hayward Fault could occur at any time and may behave quite differently. April 18, 2018  …   4:18 P.M.  …  The earthquake begins…  With an epicenter at Oakland, the rupture races 52 miles along the fault towards Fremont and Richmond at speeds of 7,000 miles per hour. In Berkeley and Hayward the ground shifts 3 to 5 feet… ripping through buried pipes and wires. The USGS Shake Map shows areas of violent and extreme shaking, lasting up to 30 seconds or longer … causing very heavy damage. Away from the epicenter, a warning arrives up to 25 seconds before strong shaking begins...  Impacts and destruction are magnified by a cascade of hazards. In the HayWired Scenario, 800 people die and 18,000 more are injured.  2,500 people need to be rescued from collapsed buildings, while another 22,000 are trapped in elevators.   In this scenario, 77,000 to 152,000 households could be displaced. Some East Bay residents lose water for 6 weeks and up to 6 months in the worst-hit areas. Lack of firefighting water could turn some of the more than 400 fires into conflagrations, burning the equivalent of 52,000 single-family homes.  Who has power, water, gas and communications? Every lifeline is disrupted to some extent.  This could be the first major U.S. earthquake in the age of the internet. What happens in a disconnected world? Dozens of significant aftershocks and fault afterslip will cause additional costly damage, requiring repeated inspections and repairs. Property damage and direct business losses exceed $82 billion dollars, mostly due to shaking, but also to liquefaction and landslides. Fires could cause hundreds more fatalities and an additional $30 billion dollars’ damage, and would extend the duration of disruption. Few things are insured. How many people will move away? What will such a disaster mean to you, your family, and your community?  Acting now can save lives and jobs, businesses, neighborhoods and homes. The Bay Area has invested over 50 billion dollars since the 1989 Loma Prieta quake, strengthening potential points of failure, infrastructure and buildings. But these efforts need to continue and expand through your engagement. Use the HayWired scenario... Doing so will reveal actions that will lessen business disruption and improve our ability to bounce back. More actions like these will reduce risk and creation of the HayWired scenario offers you an opportunity to do your part.  Partners are continuing to come together to share interdependencies, resources and solutions.  Use the science, come together … because … Together, … we can Outsmart Disaster!