PubTalk 7/2015 — The Giant Cascadia Earthquake of January 26, 1700

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Detailed Description

Detective Stories from North America and Japan

by Brian Atwater, USGS Seattle

  • A tsunami from western North America entered Japanese written history in Jan 1700
  • Decades of basic research on both sides of the Pacific led to this discovery
  • The endings underpin public-safety measures in the United States and Canada

Details

Image Dimensions: 200 x 135

Date Taken:

Length: 01:44:55

Location Taken: Menlo Park, CA, US

Transcript

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[ Music ]

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Good evening.

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I am delighted to see a virtually --
almost full house tonight.

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It’s great to see so many of you, and
I see a lot of new faces in the audience.

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I really appreciate that.

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My name is Leslie Gordon,
and I welcome you to the

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U.S. Geological Survey
in Menlo Park in our --

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another installment of our continuing
monthly public lecture series.

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As usual, I have announcements and --
before I introduce tonight’s speaker.

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Late tonight,
there's a full moon.

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It’s actually full at
3:45 in the morning tomorrow.

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And it’s a blue moon.
People know what a blue moon is?

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It’s the second full moon
in a calendar month.

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So tonight we’ll
have a blue moon.

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[chuckles]

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On that theme -- what does that
have to do with anything?

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I’m going to apologize in advance
for the warm, stuffy air in this room.

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It’s a nice, warm summer evening
in California.

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And we do not have control
over the air conditioning in this room.

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We’ve already tried.

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It’s so modern that everything
is programmed in advance,

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and nobody can just walk up
to a thermostat and fix it.

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This is technology
and progress.

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And there’s a lot of
warm bodies in this room.

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So I apologize.
We’ve got the doors open.

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If the glare is too much, let me know,
but it’s a choice of the glare or fresh air.

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All right.

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Because I always want you to come back
next month, it’s going -- it’s unusual.

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We’re going to have two earthquake
talks back to back, which is unusual.

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We’ll be talking about
earthquakes tonight.

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Next month we’ll be talking
about manmade,

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or human-caused, earthquakes,
or what we call induced seismicity.

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So do join us next month
on August 27th.

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Justin Rubinstein will be talking
about human-caused, or induced,

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earthquakes and seismicity
and all the questions

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that I see in the news
all the time.

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So please do join us
again next month.

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Tonight we’re going to
take a little historical tour.

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And I promise
you will enjoy this.

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Brian Atwater is a research geologist
with the U.S. Geological Survey.

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He is in our Seattle office,
so we’re very fortunate that

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he was able to travel to California
and be with us today.

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He started his career
here in Menlo Park in 1974

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but has been in Seattle --
our Seattle office since 1985.

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Brian uses coastal geology --
in other words, looking at the rocks

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and the sand and the mud -- to learn
about earthquake and tsunami hazards.

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And he has contributed to basic
discoveries about hazards --

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earthquake hazards in
Washington state, in Chile, Japan,

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Thailand, and the
British Virgin Islands.

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He’s also been involved with publishing
fact sheets and booklets for laymen --

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some public safety booklets about
tsunamis in Chile, Indonesia,

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and Pakistan, all with the purpose
of saving more lives.

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Early in his career here in California,
he surveyed remnant marshes

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in San Francisco Bay in the estuary,
and he mapped the geology

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of the Sacramento and
San Joaquin River deltas.

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Brian Atwater is a member of the
National Academy of Sciences.

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He is a fellow of the
American Geophysical Union.

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And in addition to being on the
USGS payroll, he’s an official --

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excuse me, and affiliate professor
at the University of Washington.

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And we’re really lucky to have
Brian Atwater with us here tonight.

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Thank you.

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[ Applause ]

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[ Silence ]

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- How about that?
- [inaudible responses]

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- Okay.
Well, thank you, Leslie.

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Thank you all
for being here.

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This is from a public safety brochure
in Tanabe in an area near Kobe, Japan.

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And you have an observant cat.
[laughter]

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And a human.
And a subduction zone.

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You can see the down-going plate
there going into what’s labeled

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in the square characters up above
as a torafu or something like that.

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So it’s a trough --
a trench.

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And there are
two more of these.

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And what they capture, in some ways,
is the theme of tonight’s talk,

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which is the use of the ups and downs
that take place at subduction zones

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as a way of learning
about the earthquake

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and tsunami histories
at these places.

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And in the Japanese case,
they have a long, written history.

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In the case of the area
we’ll talk about tonight,

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the northwest
of the United States,

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essentially, written history
begins with Lewis and Clark.

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But the Earth operates on cycles
longer than -- with subduction zones.

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It can operate on cycles much longer
than the mere 200 or so years.

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And so it's useful to use geology
to extend history farther back

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and to learn about hazards that
you wouldn't otherwise know about.

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So our observant cat here is a geodesist
looking at the -- at the deformation.

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This is not a real
geophysically realistic picture.

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[laughter]
You'll see -- you'll see a more

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realistic one, but you can see the
idea that some part of the leading edge

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of the overriding plate
is getting dragged down.

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But it’s also happening to that
plate as it’s getting shoved in --

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the left-hand side
is getting shortened, right?

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And so really the coast
should be bulging upward.

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And that will
play out when -- later on.

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But in the final shot here, the . . .
[laughter]

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The character --
the top line of text says --

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it says, in Japanese,
earthquake and tsunami.

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And you think about the
March 2011 disaster in Japan

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with the very large
loss of life in northeast Japan.

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But you compare
that loss of life

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with the number of people
who are in the places that got wet.

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And the estimates I've read on that
are that 95% of the people

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who were in the places who got wet --
that got wet, they survived. Okay?

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And so it’s sometimes
thought that tsunamis

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just can't be survived,
you know.

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And despite the problems
that Japan had with that disaster,

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they had, surely, an aware population
with people who had been schooled

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in the kind of simple message
that’s in these cartoons.

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That if you feel an earthquake,
get yourself to high ground.

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And so that probably contributed to
quite a bit of life saving in Japan.

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But that depends
on an understanding --

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fundamentally, an understanding that
you have that hazard in the first place.

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And so that’s where we’re headed
with this talk is sleuthing

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back in the past to learn about
hazards that wrote themselves

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into geological history
but too early to show up

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in written history in
northwestern North America,

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however not too early to
show up in written history in Japan.

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So we’re going to see a
trans-Pacific detective story.

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So too early for
the northwest of the U.S., so . . .

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[laughter]

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This makes -- this map was
made for the King of France.

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Some of you may know of
a New Yorker article that came out that

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contains a memorable quote about how
everything west of Interstate 5 is toast.

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I live five blocks west of I-5,
so I kind of wondered about that.

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And then I thought, well,
maybe, you know,

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the French mapmaker
knew about this all along.

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[laughter]

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But I-5 doesn't
go that far east.

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But it’s remarkable that,
okay, 1720 -- let’s see.

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They didn't know about
San Francisco Bay then, did they?

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Right?

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But Cape -- they'd already been up as far
as Cape Blanco and Cape Mendocino.

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So that’s, I think, Cabrillo, and then
there’s somebody later than him in 1600.

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Who is that?

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- Sebastian Vizcaino.
- Vizcaino. Thank you.

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He goes on to Japan
and does things there.

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So speaking of
Spanish things, okay.

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So we’ve got to backtrack
a little bit here to learn about

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some of the pioneers in land level
change related to earthquakes.

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And probably the earliest one
on record is Maria Graham.

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And if you go to this lovely old home
north of Valparaiso in Chile,

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a museum for a -- this guy
Thomas Cochrane was a mercenary

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who founded the Chilean Navy, you can
read about Maria Graham in Spanish.

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Some of you get the general idea that
there was some intelligence involved

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that -- the dotes, I think, means gifts,
that she had exceptional gifts to write.

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And she was doing that at the time of
Chile’s independence, or just after it.

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And that, if you’re Chilean,
you can discover on her pages of her

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diary that she had a sharp vision of --
acontecer -- to tell, maybe? I don't know.

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With profound analysis --
psychological analysis

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of our early heroes of -- they mean
Thomas Cochrane, among others.

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But she was -- she was an
astute observer of nature.

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And this led to a discovery
and got her in some trouble,

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and she gave at least as good
as she got in that.

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So she wrote a diary --
a published journal, really --

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a book about her time in Chile,
published two years

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after she got back --
after she was in Chile.

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And this is her
self-portrait in the book.

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She’s the person on your right
in the -- in the coach.

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But she also maybe communicated,
or was asked to communicate, an excerpt

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from that journal about what she saw
in relation to an earthquake in 1822.

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And so here’s what
she says about it.

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It appeared
the morning of the 20th.

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The earthquake happened on
the 19th of November, 1822.

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But the whole line of the coast
from north to south,

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a distance of above 100 miles,
had been raised above its former level.

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And she gives a bunch of
evidence for it, and this is one of them.

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When I went to examine the coast,
although it was high water --

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so it was high tide -- I found the
ancient bed of the sea lay bare and dry.

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She means just the day before,
bare and dry.

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With beds of oysters, mussels, and other
shells adhering to the rocks on which

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they grew, the fish being all dead and
exhaling a most offensive effluvia.

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[laughter]

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And she went on to identify raised
beaches along the shore as well.

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She was an astute
geological observer.

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Well, this got her in trouble
with a guy named Greenough

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who thought that Earth --
that the only way that a coast --

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or any part of the Earth’s surface can
get raised is by means of a volcano.

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And 10 years later -- 10 years after
she published this, she attacked --

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he attacked her in
a most unpleasant way --

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in an address when he was
the president of the

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Geological Society of London,
or something like this.

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And she -- and the backstory is
that Greenough was having

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a long-running battle with a
guy named Charles -- Charles, right --

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Lyell, who was -- the first geology
textbook, really, is by Lyell.

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And Lyell had cited Maria Graham
and said, you know, that earthquakes

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can be associated
with the raising of coasts.

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And was anathema to Greenough,
but rather than attack his adversary,

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Lyell, he went after what he
thought was the weaker target.

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And he made a mistake.

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[laughter]

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So her rebuttal, which is
just this marvelous thing --

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you can go online
and find this.

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Just Google Maria Graham
and Greenough or something.

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Anyway, she -- since --
this is part of -- just a small excerpt.

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Mrs. Callcott --
he had gotten remarried --

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there was some losses of
husbands along the way --

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[laughter]

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-- had read with surprise
in the Athenaeum of June 14

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an extract from Mr. Greenough’s
anniversary address to your society,

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in which there is an
uncourteous attack upon her letter

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addressed to Mr. Warburton -- the letter
that’s up there at the beginning --

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in the year 1824, giving an
account of the earthquake, la dee da.

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Okay.

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And so she writes
this in the third person.

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That’s marvelous.

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Mrs. Callcott -- and she wants --
she has a lot of stuff she defends

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and just sort of
levels him.

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But one of her points is, you know,
I was seeing the facts.

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I wasn't deluded.
Even though I am a woman,

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I am capable of observing facts.
[laughter]

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And so she says, Mrs. Callcott had
ample means and leisure to observe

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the coast at Qintero and Valparaiso,
places distant from each other 30 miles.

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00:15:30,350 --> 00:15:35,330
And she saw the difference between
the old high water marks on the cliffs,

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beach, and rocks, from three to four feet
higher than the new high water

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ever reached during the
two months she remained in Chile

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after the
first great shock.

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And then she goes on because
she knows that Greenough

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is having this battle with Lyell,
and she’s positioning herself.

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She’s a very savvy geologist,
but she’s saying, you know,

220
00:15:54,900 --> 00:15:57,260
I'm not really
a geologist.

221
00:15:57,260 --> 00:16:02,070
She says, she is indifferent whether
Mr. Greenough ascribes this

222
00:16:02,070 --> 00:16:05,760
to partial elevation of the
coast of Chile

223
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,820
or to a change in level of
the whole mighty Pacific Ocean . . .

224
00:16:09,820 --> 00:16:11,820
[laughter]

225
00:16:11,820 --> 00:16:16,010
. . . which must have extended to
Polynesia, India, and China.

226
00:16:16,010 --> 00:16:21,000
The fact is there was a change --
“The fact is,” right --

227
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,920
that there was a change in the relative
position of the land and water.

228
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:30,870
And to save circumlocution,
Mrs. Callcott will continue to

229
00:16:30,870 --> 00:16:36,810
use the word “raised” or “elevated”
in describing that change. Yeah?

230
00:16:36,810 --> 00:16:38,340
So she really lets him have it.
[laughter]

231
00:16:38,340 --> 00:16:41,060
But it’s well worth reading
the whole thing.

232
00:16:41,060 --> 00:16:43,750
It’s an amazing exchange.

233
00:16:43,750 --> 00:16:48,680
So she does this -- if you go --
Darwin eventually goes

234
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,300
and stays at the
home of Thomas Cochrane.

235
00:16:51,300 --> 00:16:55,750
And Darwin cites
Mrs. Graham, right?

236
00:16:55,750 --> 00:17:01,550
But soon, with Darwin and FitzRoy,
that became the official establishment

237
00:17:01,550 --> 00:17:05,990
of the fact that earthquakes can be
associated with the raising of coasts.

238
00:17:05,990 --> 00:17:09,689
But really,
Maria Graham got it first.

239
00:17:09,689 --> 00:17:13,100
Okay.
This person -- this is another going back.

240
00:17:13,100 --> 00:17:19,699
So now we’re -- now we’re
up in the United States.

241
00:17:19,699 --> 00:17:22,709
Cooper was
born in New York.

242
00:17:22,709 --> 00:17:28,380
He went to medical school at the
College of Physicians and Surgeons.

243
00:17:28,380 --> 00:17:33,490
He got his M.D. at age 21.
I guess that was common in those days.

244
00:17:33,490 --> 00:17:36,190
He practiced medicine for
two years in New York.

245
00:17:36,190 --> 00:17:41,480
But his real wish was to be
a naturalist as his father had been.

246
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:48,510
And an opportunity came up when the
then-secretary of war, Jefferson Davis,

247
00:17:48,510 --> 00:17:52,980
pushed forward an initiative
to have surveys made of several --

248
00:17:52,980 --> 00:17:56,470
I think three different
railway routes --

249
00:17:56,470 --> 00:18:01,140
potential railway routes
to the Pacific coast.

250
00:18:01,140 --> 00:18:09,840
And he wrote to the secretary
of the Smithsonian Institution,

251
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:14,410
who knew of his father’s work,
and he said, I’d really like

252
00:18:14,410 --> 00:18:19,330
to be a naturalist on
one of these railway surveys.

253
00:18:19,330 --> 00:18:25,970
And that Smithsonian person
landed him a job on the railway survey

254
00:18:25,970 --> 00:18:29,840
of Isaac Stevens --
the northernmost one --

255
00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:37,260
which involved Cooper getting on a --
going down through Panama

256
00:18:37,260 --> 00:18:42,380
and up to San Francisco,
then changing boats again,

257
00:18:42,380 --> 00:18:47,430
and taking a boat up to Fort Vancouver
in what’s now Washington,

258
00:18:47,430 --> 00:18:51,200
where me met a lieutenant
named Ulysses Grant.

259
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:57,780
And then his supervisor on the survey
was a captain named George McClellan.

260
00:18:57,780 --> 00:18:58,980
[laughter]

261
00:18:58,980 --> 00:19:02,960
So did I pronounce him correctly?
But the Civil War general.

262
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,110
And when he went back to D.C.
to write the report --

263
00:19:05,110 --> 00:19:09,540
that's written at bottom --
he dined with Robert E. Lee.

264
00:19:09,540 --> 00:19:10,930
[laughter]

265
00:19:10,930 --> 00:19:14,400
So really very -- so an
interesting background.

266
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:19,900
But he -- the railway survey
didn't occupy him very long.

267
00:19:19,900 --> 00:19:23,400
But the Smithsonian was willing
to support him to stay there.

268
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,770
And they sent him out to the
Pacific coast to Washington

269
00:19:25,770 --> 00:19:29,460
to a place that was then called
Shoalwater Bay -- shallow water --

270
00:19:29,460 --> 00:19:33,260
now called
Willapa Bay.

271
00:19:33,260 --> 00:19:37,580
And Cooper was particularly struck by --
he was there studying the botany,

272
00:19:37,580 --> 00:19:41,560
and he was struck by a tree -- western
red cedar -- that's particularly durable.

273
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:46,190
And he wanted to give two examples
of the durability of the wood.

274
00:19:46,190 --> 00:19:50,610
And he gave the familiar one
where you have a fallen tree

275
00:19:50,610 --> 00:19:54,770
of this species lying on the floor
of the forest and then some

276
00:19:54,770 --> 00:19:58,920
great big old-growth trees
that had used it as a nurse log,

277
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,920
and the wood is still good
in the downed log, right?

278
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:03,870
So that was
his first example.

279
00:20:03,870 --> 00:20:07,670
Second example -- on some of the tide
meadows about Shoalwater Bay,

280
00:20:07,670 --> 00:20:12,170
dead trees of this species
only are standing,

281
00:20:12,170 --> 00:20:14,760
sometimes in groves
whose age must be immense,

282
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:17,480
though impossible
to tell accurately.

283
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,780
So he’s saying tide meadows.
He means, like, salt marshes --

284
00:20:20,780 --> 00:20:24,890
you know, like, Palo Alto Bay
lands and stuff.

285
00:20:24,890 --> 00:20:28,840
They evidently lived and grew when
the surface was above high-water level,

286
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,700
and so on, and eventually he says,
continued and careful examination

287
00:20:32,700 --> 00:20:35,740
of such trees may afford
important information

288
00:20:35,740 --> 00:20:39,160
as to the changes
of level on these shores.

289
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:43,030
So he’s channeling Maria Graham
a little bit on these --

290
00:20:43,030 --> 00:20:46,360
the trees are indifferent as to
whether the sea rose or the land --

291
00:20:46,360 --> 00:20:51,360
you know, the land dropped, but
there were some changes in level.

292
00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:58,350
So that’s Cooper.
There’s one other person here.

293
00:20:58,350 --> 00:21:03,790
Many of you know this person’s work,
but you know the place here.

294
00:21:03,790 --> 00:21:09,940
Is it Bolinas Lagoon?
Does that look like it?

295
00:21:09,940 --> 00:21:14,650
And the photographer,
Grove Karl Gilbert.

296
00:21:14,650 --> 00:21:22,520
And so Pepper Island is the place that --
a place that Gilbert visited at Bolinas

297
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:26,540
when he was surveying
the rupture of the 1906 San Francisco --

298
00:21:26,540 --> 00:21:29,540
from the
1906 San Francisco earthquake.

299
00:21:29,540 --> 00:21:34,170
There’s a little side note on Gilbert
about -- you know, he came out here

300
00:21:34,170 --> 00:21:40,380
to do a -- to do work related to
hydraulic mining debris.

301
00:21:40,380 --> 00:21:45,850
And he starts off in Sacramento,
and he’s not happy there.

302
00:21:45,850 --> 00:21:50,230
And there’s a -- there’s a
correspondence in July 1905.

303
00:21:50,230 --> 00:21:56,590
I've been two months in the state with
headquarters at Sacramento, which place

304
00:21:56,590 --> 00:22:03,000
I find so dull that I've downslid into
billiards in a public billiard room.

305
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:04,120
[laughter]

306
00:22:04,120 --> 00:22:06,970
If I spend the winter here,
the base will probably be shifted

307
00:22:06,970 --> 00:22:11,580
to Berkeley where there
are people I like to know.

308
00:22:11,580 --> 00:22:12,930
[laughter]

309
00:22:12,930 --> 00:22:16,630
So he did go to Berkeley, and then
the earthquake happened.

310
00:22:16,630 --> 00:22:19,190
And at Berkeley,
he met Willis Jepson.

311
00:22:19,190 --> 00:22:22,130
And Jepson -- those of you
who have used old botany books here

312
00:22:22,130 --> 00:22:25,540
would know that the first
California flora before

313
00:22:25,540 --> 00:22:30,059
the sort of more recent ones
is Jepson’s flora.

314
00:22:30,059 --> 00:22:33,020
And he has Jepson standing
out here along the fault.

315
00:22:33,020 --> 00:22:37,120
And can you see the trace of the fault
in this black-and-white photo?

316
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:41,180
So it’s the
tonal difference.

317
00:22:41,180 --> 00:22:45,870
Jepson’s standing on the side of
the fault where the land didn't drop.

318
00:22:45,870 --> 00:22:49,620
And then he’s looking across to the
place where there’s standing water,

319
00:22:49,620 --> 00:22:52,690
and the pickleweed
is not very happy.

320
00:22:52,690 --> 00:22:56,430
And that pickleweed marsh
proceeded to die.

321
00:22:56,430 --> 00:22:59,440
And so, in this way,
Gilbert was tuned in.

322
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,870
So you could think -- in the earthquake
story that I’m going to tell you,

323
00:23:03,870 --> 00:23:08,620
the pickleweed are
essentially Cooper’s trees. Okay?

324
00:23:08,620 --> 00:23:12,140
They're -- the land drops,
and the vegetation

325
00:23:12,140 --> 00:23:16,090
can't take the inundation
by the -- by the tidewater.

326
00:23:16,090 --> 00:23:24,170
Okay. In the room tonight is
George Plafker, I believe standing here.

327
00:23:24,170 --> 00:23:27,030
And George is in a Maria Graham
kind of moment here.

328
00:23:27,030 --> 00:23:33,200
He’s standing on a --
on an area that was raised

329
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:38,020
in Alaska during
the earthquake in 1964.

330
00:23:38,020 --> 00:23:42,420
And the pattern that George
and his co-workers mapped out

331
00:23:42,420 --> 00:23:52,550
is this very big pattern of some areas
being raised and some lowered.

332
00:23:52,550 --> 00:24:00,809
And this -- my understanding
from George is that the expectation

333
00:24:00,809 --> 00:24:05,400
when they went to do a post-earthquake
survey was they might have

334
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,540
something like the San Andreas Fault,
and a crack in the ground,

335
00:24:08,540 --> 00:24:10,740
and they'd map it,
and they'd be done.

336
00:24:10,740 --> 00:24:16,790
And instead, they found that they
had to map out all those shores to --

337
00:24:16,790 --> 00:24:19,670
and the more they mapped out,
the more that they saw --

338
00:24:19,670 --> 00:24:22,980
more widespread they saw
the land level change was.

339
00:24:22,980 --> 00:24:26,700
And they couldn't explain it by having a
little vertical fault just sitting in there.

340
00:24:26,700 --> 00:24:30,790
There had to have a
very gently inclined fault.

341
00:24:30,790 --> 00:24:35,600
And this led -- this was
subduction in action at a time when

342
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:41,150
the term “plate tectonics” didn't
even exist in the scientific literature.

343
00:24:41,150 --> 00:24:46,559
So this was -- this was -- this work in
Alaska and subsequent work in Chile

344
00:24:46,559 --> 00:24:50,960
with a similar earthquake there were --
these were very, very important

345
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,640
in the development of
the idea of plate tectonics.

346
00:24:53,640 --> 00:25:00,290
And it’s not easy to frame the question
of whether there are big earthquakes

347
00:25:00,290 --> 00:25:09,059
in the Pacific Northwest without
plate tectonics as that guide.

348
00:25:09,059 --> 00:25:14,150
Portage is labeled -- Montague
Island is where George was standing --

349
00:25:14,150 --> 00:25:18,150
the big white dot out there
in the raised area.

350
00:25:18,150 --> 00:25:23,080
And then near Anchorage, Portage --
a garage that went for a swim

351
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,429
with high tides
in the summer.

352
00:25:25,429 --> 00:25:29,540
And the spruce trees also got put out of
commission by these -- by the tide.

353
00:25:29,540 --> 00:25:34,700
So the garage is also Cooper’s trees,
if you will. Okay?

354
00:25:34,700 --> 00:25:38,620
Or Gilbert’s
pickleweed.

355
00:25:38,620 --> 00:25:40,590
So it’s that --
it’s that idea.

356
00:25:40,590 --> 00:25:43,870
So now you’re getting the sense
of how an earthquake

357
00:25:43,870 --> 00:25:46,950
can write its own
record ecologically.

358
00:25:46,950 --> 00:25:52,350
Yeah? That you can --
you can change the landscape

359
00:25:52,350 --> 00:25:57,430
by making garage owners
and trees uncomfortable. Right?

360
00:25:57,430 --> 00:25:59,310
[laughter]

361
00:26:00,610 --> 00:26:04,700
So also what comes in with that is,
up there at Portage,

362
00:26:04,700 --> 00:26:06,280
is you have
these giant tides.

363
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:10,500
It’s a 10-meter tide range
up there -- 30 feet.

364
00:26:10,500 --> 00:26:16,120
And the tides come in
charged with enough sand and silt that,

365
00:26:16,120 --> 00:26:21,950
in the months after the 1964 earthquake,
the land was down at the level --

366
00:26:21,950 --> 00:26:24,350
the brown stuff is
the soil from 1964,

367
00:26:24,350 --> 00:26:28,040
and then the tides
built all this stuff up above.

368
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:32,910
And each of those layers probably
represents an individual high tide.

369
00:26:32,910 --> 00:26:35,929
And you know the way that
there are -- since it’s a blue moon,

370
00:26:35,929 --> 00:26:39,780
there are tides -- the tides
would be extreme at this point.

371
00:26:39,780 --> 00:26:43,370
And then you get partway through
when the tides would be less extreme.

372
00:26:43,370 --> 00:26:48,300
So you can see down here a time
when the tides were less extreme.

373
00:26:48,300 --> 00:26:51,410
And then the extreme tides gives
you the very thick layers here.

374
00:26:51,410 --> 00:26:55,550
So just a couple of months
in the summer of ’64, probably,

375
00:26:55,550 --> 00:26:57,730
that you've built up
a fair amount.

376
00:26:57,730 --> 00:27:05,510
This shovel here is the same style
as the one on the screen.

377
00:27:07,490 --> 00:27:14,110
So this is -- this helps you because,
if you have a tree trunk or a willow,

378
00:27:14,110 --> 00:27:18,870
or even a pickleweed,
that's rooted in the -- in the soil there,

379
00:27:18,870 --> 00:27:23,020
the sediment builds up around it,
and it preserves it. Right?

380
00:27:23,020 --> 00:27:26,340
So you get an archive.

381
00:27:28,660 --> 00:27:35,940
So in the big-picture view, this
poor series of kind of stark cartoons,

382
00:27:35,940 --> 00:27:39,880
you have a subduction zone
like the one with the Japanese cat,

383
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,500
only we’ve flipped it to be
a North American view

384
00:27:43,500 --> 00:27:47,059
rather than the Japanese view
where the plate goes in the other --

385
00:27:47,059 --> 00:27:49,700
the subduction goes
in the other direction.

386
00:27:49,700 --> 00:27:54,940
And the part of the fault that’s stuck
is shaded with the heavy brown line.

387
00:27:54,940 --> 00:27:59,280
And the two tectonic plates are
moving towards one another.

388
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:04,540
And there are some trees living
dangerously close to the shore.

389
00:28:04,540 --> 00:28:12,299
And in between times, the --
between the earthquakes, the land

390
00:28:12,299 --> 00:28:18,830
gets bulged up because that plate
gets shorter as things get squeezed here.

391
00:28:18,830 --> 00:28:23,010
And with that spring-loaded,
as in the Japanese cartoon,

392
00:28:23,010 --> 00:28:26,850
then the tsunami takes off once the
earthquake gives you the slip

393
00:28:26,850 --> 00:28:30,600
that lets the leading edge
of the plate flip up and the --

394
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,610
and some parts behind get
stretched out, so the land drops.

395
00:28:34,610 --> 00:28:38,900
So where you see -- so Maria Graham’s
shorelines were in place --

396
00:28:38,900 --> 00:28:42,760
and George’s -- were in places
where you have the upward arrow.

397
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,720
And then the Portage example would
be one with down-dropping.

398
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,740
The San Andreas is
a slightly different case.

399
00:28:49,740 --> 00:28:52,270
It’s not this tectonic setting.

400
00:28:52,270 --> 00:28:55,549
And the tsunami takes off
in both directions, right?

401
00:28:55,549 --> 00:29:01,630
So there’s a part of the tsunami that’s
heading towards your nearby coast.

402
00:29:01,630 --> 00:29:06,580
And that’s the dicey one because
that gives you very -- that’s where

403
00:29:06,580 --> 00:29:10,740
the cat cartoon comes in
for the public education in Japan.

404
00:29:10,740 --> 00:29:12,820
The association of
earthquake and tsunami.

405
00:29:12,820 --> 00:29:15,809
Don't wait for the government
to tell you what to do.

406
00:29:15,809 --> 00:29:17,700
Just treat the earthquake
as a natural warning

407
00:29:17,700 --> 00:29:20,820
because the tsunami
arrived very quickly.

408
00:29:20,820 --> 00:29:22,440
And then there’s
another part of the tsunami

409
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:27,920
that’s heading across the ocean,
and that’ll take some time.

410
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:33,679
But finally, the poor tree,
because the land has dropped,

411
00:29:33,679 --> 00:29:40,150
ends up in an uncomfortable spot
here in the tidewater.

412
00:29:40,150 --> 00:29:46,870
So that was the -- there’s a lot of
groundwork that was laid for this.

413
00:29:46,870 --> 00:29:52,570
The parts of the Cascadia story,
I’ll try to mention here.

414
00:29:52,570 --> 00:29:58,570
And many, many scientists from
different fields, especially geophysics,

415
00:29:58,570 --> 00:30:02,950
in framing the problem to begin with,
and working on some evidence

416
00:30:02,950 --> 00:30:10,100
for the vertical and horizontal
movements of the land

417
00:30:10,100 --> 00:30:15,710
in the Pacific Northwest
during the 20th century.

418
00:30:15,710 --> 00:30:21,850
But still, there existed,
into the early 1980s,

419
00:30:21,850 --> 00:30:25,670
after plate tectonics had been coined,
and the existence of the fault

420
00:30:25,670 --> 00:30:29,700
been recognized, and the activity
of the fault had been confirmed

421
00:30:29,700 --> 00:30:34,280
by seismologists, they didn't know
whether it made big earthquakes

422
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,860
like the one in
Alaska in 1964, right?

423
00:30:37,860 --> 00:30:41,520
And so these were the two possibilities,
and there was -- there was some thought

424
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,799
that there’s a lot of wet sediment that
gets dragged down along the fault

425
00:30:45,799 --> 00:30:51,240
and that the water pressure would just
allow it to slip in a benign fashion.

426
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:55,850
So for the generic Portland and Seattle,
the cities sitting over there

427
00:30:55,850 --> 00:30:58,540
in the cutaway view, this was --
this was a question.

428
00:30:58,540 --> 00:31:02,900
So the map on the left
projects to the Earth’s surface

429
00:31:02,900 --> 00:31:06,510
the patch that’s shaded
in the lower diagram, okay?

430
00:31:06,510 --> 00:31:10,280
It’s the part of the fault
where the fault breaks.

431
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,200
And we’re talking about
very big earthquakes

432
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,480
where epicenter
doesn't really cover it.

433
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,660
On a lot of -- for a lot of earthquakes,
you put a dot on the map,

434
00:31:20,660 --> 00:31:24,940
and the area where the fault broke
is covered by that dot.

435
00:31:24,940 --> 00:31:29,419
In a case like this, the fault might
decide to start to break here or there --

436
00:31:29,419 --> 00:31:32,200
wherever it is along there,
that’s going to -- in plan view,

437
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,260
that’s going to be your epicenter,
but what really counts is

438
00:31:35,260 --> 00:31:40,010
what length and width of the fault
breaks, and that’s what’s going to give

439
00:31:40,010 --> 00:31:44,870
the seismic energy and the --
and the tsunami to follow.

440
00:31:44,870 --> 00:31:48,160
So you can see that --
you can see that here,

441
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,340
that the displacement on
the fault is what’s driving

442
00:31:52,340 --> 00:31:55,809
the water column up and
initiating the tsunami.

443
00:31:55,809 --> 00:31:59,299
It’s not like the tsunami is
radiating from an epicenter

444
00:31:59,299 --> 00:32:04,890
as a pebble in a pond
or something.

445
00:32:04,890 --> 00:32:14,730
Well, in the -- in the Cascadia case,
the discoveries were hastened

446
00:32:14,730 --> 00:32:20,890
by questions surrounding this
pair of power plants

447
00:32:20,890 --> 00:32:25,549
that were under construction
in the -- in the early 1980s.

448
00:32:25,549 --> 00:32:29,040
The acronym stands for Washington
Public Power Supply System.

449
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,460
Many of you know it.

450
00:32:30,460 --> 00:32:33,970
But the acronym doesn't
roll off the tongue very well,

451
00:32:33,970 --> 00:32:38,260
but when it does,
it comes off as “whoops.”

452
00:32:38,260 --> 00:32:40,500
[laughter]

453
00:32:40,500 --> 00:32:49,570
And WPPSS got -- the people running
WPPSS got in over their heads

454
00:32:49,570 --> 00:32:51,750
and borrowed a lot of money
they couldn't pay back.

455
00:32:51,750 --> 00:32:54,059
In the end, there was a --
what was at the time

456
00:32:54,059 --> 00:32:58,419
the largest bond default
in U.S. history.

457
00:32:58,419 --> 00:33:02,429
And they sought to recoup their losses
on the -- or some of their losses

458
00:33:02,429 --> 00:33:06,480
by completing the reactor vessel
that’s the nearer of the

459
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:11,230
two reactor vessels in the photo --
this one.

460
00:33:11,230 --> 00:33:15,790
And the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission said, hm, this is interesting.

461
00:33:15,790 --> 00:33:20,260
In the 1970s, when you considered these --
when you designed these,

462
00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:24,450
that subduction zone
wasn't thought to be an issue.

463
00:33:24,450 --> 00:33:28,640
But now the geophysicists
tell us that it’s an active fault.

464
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,080
And though they don't know
whether it makes very big earthquakes,

465
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,940
maybe you should be
thinking about this.

466
00:33:33,940 --> 00:33:39,250
So the NRC went to a USGS
seismologist, Tom Heaton,

467
00:33:39,250 --> 00:33:44,120
who was among those who
drew comparisons between

468
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:48,040
the subduction zones and others, and
he ended up with a double negative.

469
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:49,970
I can't remember
how he put it.

470
00:33:49,970 --> 00:33:52,190
Something to the effect of,
you can't conclude that

471
00:33:52,190 --> 00:33:55,820
it can't produce earthquakes --
or very big earthquakes.

472
00:33:55,820 --> 00:34:00,380
Because he was -- he was -- you know,
he couldn't show that it had done this,

473
00:34:00,380 --> 00:34:02,820
but that this -- he could show
that this subduction zone

474
00:34:02,820 --> 00:34:07,760
looked like subduction zones
that have done it in historic times.

475
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:09,659
And it was easy to think
that the 200 years

476
00:34:09,659 --> 00:34:13,039
since Lewis and Clark
wouldn't be enough.

477
00:34:13,039 --> 00:34:16,779
So that was the -- that framed
the question for geologists --

478
00:34:16,779 --> 00:34:18,729
coastal geologists like me.

479
00:34:18,729 --> 00:34:21,859
And so a bunch of us
got into the act at that point.

480
00:34:21,859 --> 00:34:27,879
And Portage was very much on
our minds at that point because we --

481
00:34:27,879 --> 00:34:33,460
that was up there as
an example of how

482
00:34:33,460 --> 00:34:37,249
land dropping during an
earthquake can kill off a forest.

483
00:34:37,249 --> 00:34:42,539
The estuary can bring in silt and sand,
mud, build up a pile of stuff,

484
00:34:42,539 --> 00:34:47,639
preserve some of the plants --
the stumps of the trees.

485
00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:50,619
And we had these western red
cedar that really preserved well,

486
00:34:50,619 --> 00:34:53,720
so this is where Cooper gets
back into the act,

487
00:34:53,720 --> 00:34:56,960
though at the start,
none of us knew about Cooper.

488
00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:03,339
So the best-preserved of those ghost
forests is one that Cooper never saw.

489
00:35:03,339 --> 00:35:08,729
It’s a bit farther north
from Willapa Bay.

490
00:35:08,729 --> 00:35:11,789
And these are standing out
in a tide meadow

491
00:35:11,789 --> 00:35:16,069
along a stream
called the Copalis River.

492
00:35:16,069 --> 00:35:21,119
There’s Cooper.
Just his ghost up there.

493
00:35:21,119 --> 00:35:22,109
[laughter]

494
00:35:22,109 --> 00:35:25,640
So that’s just the most graphic
of the evidence.

495
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,539
Usually it was -- it was
marsh grasses and stuff

496
00:35:29,539 --> 00:35:33,299
in the position of the --
of the trees.

497
00:35:33,299 --> 00:35:36,539
But the principle was the same,
that vegetated low-lying places

498
00:35:36,539 --> 00:35:40,430
along the coast got dropped and
essentially made into bare tide flats.

499
00:35:40,430 --> 00:35:43,619
And the mud built up on top,
and the plant remains preserved,

500
00:35:43,619 --> 00:35:47,329
and you could see that the land
had abruptly dropped.

501
00:35:47,329 --> 00:35:50,910
And that kind of work was done
up and down the coast by scientists

502
00:35:50,910 --> 00:35:57,390
from Canada, a couple different
research groups working in Washington,

503
00:35:57,390 --> 00:36:01,970
likewise in Oregon, and a
group down in California.

504
00:36:01,970 --> 00:36:03,970
And one of the strengths --
the work went on

505
00:36:03,970 --> 00:36:08,650
almost simultaneously
in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s.

506
00:36:08,650 --> 00:36:10,210
And it was a
kind of exciting thing.

507
00:36:10,210 --> 00:36:14,059
You'd go to an estuary that you
hadn't looked at before, and you'd say,

508
00:36:14,059 --> 00:36:17,579
I wonder if I’m going to see evidence
that the land abruptly dropped.

509
00:36:17,579 --> 00:36:21,029
Because there’s an alternative,
and it’s what makes the land

510
00:36:21,029 --> 00:36:24,489
and the delta so low -- and the
Sacramento and San Joaquin delta

511
00:36:24,489 --> 00:36:28,890
so low, right, is that the land --
the soils there are made of peat.

512
00:36:28,890 --> 00:36:32,369
You know, great piles of peat
that built up as marshes

513
00:36:32,369 --> 00:36:34,190
just kept their heads
above sea water.

514
00:36:34,190 --> 00:36:38,729
They never got drowned like these
ghost forests or anything like that.

515
00:36:38,729 --> 00:36:42,630
So you just have big piles of peat,
and then it can oxidize and go away.

516
00:36:42,630 --> 00:36:46,950
So that would be the alternative
were there at these estuaries --

517
00:36:46,950 --> 00:36:50,140
places where you could see
that marshes had managed

518
00:36:50,140 --> 00:36:54,599
to keep their heads above water
steadily for thousands of years.

519
00:36:54,599 --> 00:36:57,940
And in every estuary
looked here had this evidence

520
00:36:57,940 --> 00:37:02,359
for abrupt
lowering of land.

521
00:37:02,359 --> 00:37:05,150
And the safeguard --
a further safeguard here --

522
00:37:05,150 --> 00:37:08,249
and it wasn't a bandwagon effect --
was that you had these different

523
00:37:08,249 --> 00:37:13,029
research groups because they had --
there are very good incentives in science

524
00:37:13,029 --> 00:37:17,220
to show the other people
have it wrong.

525
00:37:17,220 --> 00:37:18,319
[laughter]

526
00:37:18,319 --> 00:37:19,259
So that was one thing.

527
00:37:19,259 --> 00:37:23,960
And then a really marvelous thing, too,
was, as you saw, tsunamis are

528
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,460
part and parcel with land level change
because it’s essentially

529
00:37:26,460 --> 00:37:28,130
a land level change
under the ocean

530
00:37:28,130 --> 00:37:34,170
that’s raising the column of water
above it and initiating the tsunami.

531
00:37:34,170 --> 00:37:38,220
And so a land level change
that lowers the coast

532
00:37:38,220 --> 00:37:40,890
probably extends underneath
the adjacent sea floors.

533
00:37:40,890 --> 00:37:47,460
Well -- and so you drive a tsunami
on shore, right, and we’ve seen that.

534
00:37:47,460 --> 00:37:49,999
So in this case, we’ll start
with a tide marsh.

535
00:37:49,999 --> 00:37:51,739
We’ll drop it down.

536
00:37:51,739 --> 00:37:54,559
Tsunami will come in on the
freshly down-dropped landscape,

537
00:37:54,559 --> 00:37:56,400
maybe knock the plants
over slightly.

538
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,410
And then the mud will build back up,
and we’ll have our geological record

539
00:38:00,410 --> 00:38:03,460
at right of the -- of the occurrence
of the tsunami.

540
00:38:03,460 --> 00:38:07,769
So here’s some school teachers.
One in red -- in the red from Portland,

541
00:38:07,769 --> 00:38:11,039
and in the yellow, from
Vancouver, Washington.

542
00:38:11,039 --> 00:38:13,979
And they're on the
banks of a tidal stream

543
00:38:13,979 --> 00:38:19,339
at the estuary where Cooper
spent his time at Willapa Bay.

544
00:38:19,339 --> 00:38:23,789
And so the modern
salt marsh surface is up here.

545
00:38:23,789 --> 00:38:29,109
And it’s a very low tide, and so
the tide is out of view here.

546
00:38:29,109 --> 00:38:33,249
And the bank has been cleaned off,
and a nylon window screen

547
00:38:33,249 --> 00:38:34,910
has been tacked up.

548
00:38:34,910 --> 00:38:38,089
And then this water-loving glue
has been painted on top.

549
00:38:38,089 --> 00:38:42,109
It’s a non-toxic kind of thing.

550
00:38:42,109 --> 00:38:46,619
And the glue -- the hardener for this --
it’s a two-part glue, and the hardener --

551
00:38:46,619 --> 00:38:50,380
like, a epoxy or something --
the hardener is water.

552
00:38:50,380 --> 00:38:55,660
And so the glue really likes to
penetrate wet sediment, which this is.

553
00:38:55,660 --> 00:38:58,450
And in the bank -- the reason
they've placed it here --

554
00:38:58,450 --> 00:39:01,410
as you can see this
dark stuff here and here.

555
00:39:01,410 --> 00:39:07,140
So that’s the soil of a marsh that was
there in -- before the land dropped.

556
00:39:07,140 --> 00:39:09,869
And the above, there are
these little stripes,

557
00:39:09,869 --> 00:39:13,329
and these turn out to be
layers of sand from tsunami.

558
00:39:13,329 --> 00:39:17,640
So peeled off,
that’s what it looks like.

559
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,930
And so you can see
the soil of the marsh.

560
00:39:20,930 --> 00:39:26,859
And then above it -- one, two, three,
four, five sand layers stand out in relief.

561
00:39:26,859 --> 00:39:31,299
Each of them probably represents a
different wave in the tsunami wave train

562
00:39:31,299 --> 00:39:37,109
of the evening of 26th January 1700,
by the Japanese stating, that we’ll get to.

563
00:39:37,109 --> 00:39:37,640
to.

564
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,569
So, I mean,
this stuff is out there.

565
00:39:40,569 --> 00:39:43,940
And it’s really easy to see
once you know to look for it.

566
00:39:43,940 --> 00:39:46,890
One thing about ways and means.

567
00:39:46,890 --> 00:39:49,819
A lot of this work is physical.

568
00:39:49,819 --> 00:39:52,180
And these shovels really
make a difference.

569
00:39:52,180 --> 00:39:56,960
They're World War II shovels,
and they have just the right --

570
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,700
just the right balance.

571
00:39:59,700 --> 00:40:05,930
There’s no excuse -- the stuff
is soft. You can cut into it.

572
00:40:05,930 --> 00:40:08,950
There’s no excuse -- the stuff that’s
soft,

573
00:40:08,950 --> 00:40:09,999
you can cut into it.

574
00:40:09,999 --> 00:40:13,930
It’s not like dealing with bedrock
geology where you can't easily blast,

575
00:40:13,930 --> 00:40:16,900
you know, to get --
to get what’s underneath.

576
00:40:16,900 --> 00:40:20,249
But here, you’re really responsible
for cleaning this stuff,

577
00:40:20,249 --> 00:40:24,319
and it makes a big difference
to have simple tools like this.

578
00:40:24,319 --> 00:40:31,380
Okay, so here’s another case of a
tsunami over-running something.

579
00:40:31,380 --> 00:40:36,009
But in this case, it’s more
of interest to human beings.

580
00:40:36,009 --> 00:40:39,920
There were Native peoples, of course.
And they used those tidal streams.

581
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:42,269
And they fished
and all this stuff.

582
00:40:42,269 --> 00:40:47,450
In January 1700, they probably
would have been inland,

583
00:40:47,450 --> 00:40:53,309
but by the time they got out
to their fishing camps, the --

584
00:40:53,309 --> 00:40:57,539
whenever it was after that, they would
have found them put out of commission,

585
00:40:57,539 --> 00:41:00,819
first by having been overrun by tsunami,
but more importantly,

586
00:41:00,819 --> 00:41:06,829
by having the tides come over
the freshly lowered landscape.

587
00:41:06,829 --> 00:41:08,960
So we’ll look at a --
in the next view,

588
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:16,359
we’ll look at a right-hand frame
that’s down in Oregon.

589
00:41:16,359 --> 00:41:21,450
and you’re encountering progressively
older layers of paint.

590
00:41:21,450 --> 00:41:24,289
just as if you were
scraping into the floor,

591
00:41:24,289 --> 00:41:28,969
and you’re encouraging progressively
older layers of paint.

592
00:41:28,969 --> 00:41:32,150
And so the lowest layer of --
oldest layer of paint is the --

593
00:41:32,150 --> 00:41:36,039
in this picture, is the --
is the sand from dunes.

594
00:41:36,039 --> 00:41:39,479
And there were
lots of elk bones.

595
00:41:39,479 --> 00:41:42,039
And they -- at this place,
they were harvesting elk.

596
00:41:42,039 --> 00:41:45,339
In the northwest, the Eveready batteries
were stones that people put in fire.

597
00:41:45,339 --> 00:41:50,769
And they -- let’s see -- this was true in
California also, or not? I don't know.

598
00:41:50,769 --> 00:41:58,069
In the northwest, the Eveready batteries
were stones that people in fire.

599
00:41:58,069 --> 00:42:01,009
And then that became the way
that they could heat water.

600
00:42:01,009 --> 00:42:03,989
Or if they wanted to
bend the sides of a canoe,

601
00:42:03,989 --> 00:42:07,369
they could -- they could
put in the water for that purpose.

602
00:42:07,369 --> 00:42:11,430
So anyways, there are
fire-cracked rocks in the pit.

603
00:42:11,430 --> 00:42:14,359
And then the sand that’s probably
from tsunami sits on top of that.

604
00:42:14,359 --> 00:42:16,680
And then the tides
brought in the mud after that.

605
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:23,190
Okay, and put the fishing camp site
or the elk camp site out of commission.

606
00:42:23,190 --> 00:42:30,229
Well, this led to something of a --
this led to a finding,

607
00:42:30,229 --> 00:42:34,029
but also a bit of
an impasse, a quandary.

608
00:42:34,029 --> 00:42:37,900
This work that was done by these
different somewhat competing groups

609
00:42:37,900 --> 00:42:42,999
in British Columbia, Washington,
Oregon, northern California, they all --

610
00:42:42,999 --> 00:42:48,019
they all found that the -- that the most --
that they had this evidence

611
00:42:48,019 --> 00:42:52,719
of repeated land level change
of lowering of land and that --

612
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,339
and they all found evidence
for tsunamis coming ashore

613
00:42:56,339 --> 00:42:59,440
in association with
these land level changes.

614
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,219
But they couldn't figure out --
none of us could figure out

615
00:43:03,219 --> 00:43:09,410
whether the whole fault had broken
at once along its full length

616
00:43:09,410 --> 00:43:14,529
in the dinner sausage model at right,
or whether, as cartooned at left,

617
00:43:14,529 --> 00:43:18,130
there had been
a series of shorter breaks.

618
00:43:18,130 --> 00:43:21,140
So at left, you have
three different earthquakes

619
00:43:21,140 --> 00:43:25,349
represented by those -- by those
rupture patches, okay?

620
00:43:25,349 --> 00:43:30,660
And the -- and the shaded area, again,
represents the area that -- where on the

621
00:43:30,660 --> 00:43:33,880
fault, projected to the surface on which
the fault plain would have slipped.

622
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,880
And these are just cartoon,
but the idea is that you --

623
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:42,880
that over a period of hours
or years or decades,

624
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,910
that you could break
the zone piecemeal, okay?

625
00:43:45,910 --> 00:43:49,989
That’s an alternative
to breaking it all at once.

626
00:43:49,989 --> 00:43:52,380
And so how do you
test those things geologically?

627
00:43:52,380 --> 00:43:54,609
You need a clock, right?

628
00:43:54,609 --> 00:43:56,599
Because you want to know,
did the whole thing break

629
00:43:56,599 --> 00:43:59,799
in the matter -- in a manner
of five minutes or so?

630
00:43:59,799 --> 00:44:04,469
Or did it take -- did it take
two days or two years or whatever?

631
00:44:04,469 --> 00:44:09,039
And so how do you
date things exactly enough?

632
00:44:09,039 --> 00:44:16,329
So there are a number
of props down here, but this one --

633
00:44:16,329 --> 00:44:19,710
this one is from
the initial dating exercise.

634
00:44:19,710 --> 00:44:28,299
It was -- it was -- it’s from
a spruce stump jutting out of a bank

635
00:44:28,299 --> 00:44:33,170
at Mad River Slough in northern
California -- part of Humboldt --

636
00:44:33,170 --> 00:44:35,400
an arm
of Humboldt Bay.

637
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,549
And a coping saw piece
has been taken out here.

638
00:44:38,549 --> 00:44:42,450
These are rings that
formed 35 to 45 years

639
00:44:42,450 --> 00:44:47,849
before the last ring
in the -- in the root.

640
00:44:47,849 --> 00:44:50,489
And then there’s another piece
we cut off on the outside.

641
00:44:50,489 --> 00:44:54,819
And this was part of a
radiocarbon dating exercise

642
00:44:54,819 --> 00:44:57,700
that narrowed the time
of tree death.

643
00:44:57,700 --> 00:45:00,589
And tree death is the signature
of the earthquake, right?

644
00:45:00,589 --> 00:45:03,690
If the earthquake is accompanied
by lowering of land,

645
00:45:03,690 --> 00:45:06,809
and the lowering of land
kills the trees,

646
00:45:06,809 --> 00:45:13,150
then the signature in this tree
of the earthquake is death, okay?

647
00:45:13,150 --> 00:45:18,579
And so the problem was that, yeah,
we were able to limit to

648
00:45:18,579 --> 00:45:23,180
between 1680 and 1720
the time of tree death for this --

649
00:45:23,180 --> 00:45:26,630
for these trees at Humboldt Bay
and for some up in northern Oregon

650
00:45:26,630 --> 00:45:29,109
and for some
in southern Washington.

651
00:45:29,109 --> 00:45:32,890
Everything -- all the spruce
we tried this way came out --

652
00:45:32,890 --> 00:45:35,479
came out with
those sorts of ages.

653
00:45:35,479 --> 00:45:38,259
But it could have been
either the breakfast link

654
00:45:38,259 --> 00:45:40,489
or dinner sausage model
to explain it.

655
00:45:40,489 --> 00:45:43,719
between 1680 and 1720
or a single big one.

656
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:45,430
You could have had
a series of earthquakes

657
00:45:45,430 --> 00:45:49,489
between 1680 or 1720
or a single big one.

658
00:45:49,489 --> 00:45:54,450
So this is where
we got rescued

659
00:45:54,450 --> 00:45:59,420
by Japanese earthquake
and tsunami historians.

660
00:45:59,420 --> 00:46:03,859
So one of these ended up
working for MacArthur as a --

661
00:46:03,859 --> 00:46:09,259
the occupation forces for --
before that, he had been

662
00:46:09,259 --> 00:46:13,569
a secondary school
geography teacher.

663
00:46:13,569 --> 00:46:16,440
He wrote an English-Japanese
dictionary.

664
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:22,960
And he worked as a volunteer for
the Earthquake Research Institute

665
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:29,400
of the Imperial University of Tokyo,
which, after the war,

666
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:36,210
got re-christened
the University of Tokyo.

667
00:46:36,210 --> 00:46:48,670
And they -- his job as a volunteer
was prompted by a disaster

668
00:46:48,670 --> 00:46:55,029
in the nation’s capital, in Tokyo,
labeled Edo here for its previous name,

669
00:46:55,029 --> 00:47:00,130
where in 1923, there were
some 150,000 fatalities

670
00:47:00,130 --> 00:47:03,900
from the combination
of earthquake and fire.

671
00:47:03,900 --> 00:47:10,660
And Musha was set to work
to see if he could -- in a way,

672
00:47:10,660 --> 00:47:15,009
to predict earthquakes by looking
back in the past and to mine the

673
00:47:15,009 --> 00:47:21,729
long written history of Japan going
back into the 700s or 600s to do that.

674
00:47:21,729 --> 00:47:26,690
And so during the war, his project
was coming close to completion.

675
00:47:26,690 --> 00:47:34,759
And by mimeograph, he issued his
handwritten collection -- his anthology.

676
00:47:34,759 --> 00:47:38,130
The green volumes at right
were issued during the war.

677
00:47:38,130 --> 00:47:42,609
And the title, at top, begins with
a character that looks like a person

678
00:47:42,609 --> 00:47:47,259
with arms and legs, and that’s the --
that’s the ookii or dai or big character

679
00:47:47,259 --> 00:47:51,289
in Japanese, and it means
that it’s an imperial product.

680
00:47:51,289 --> 00:47:54,660
And then the post-war volume
at left lacks that character

681
00:47:54,660 --> 00:47:57,839
when the imperial
part goes away.

682
00:47:57,839 --> 00:48:05,029
And the volume at left was in
manuscript form preserved

683
00:48:05,029 --> 00:48:11,499
during the firebombing of Tokyo
by being buried in a seismologist’s

684
00:48:11,499 --> 00:48:18,109
backyard in a galvanized steel box
three meters below the ground.

685
00:48:18,109 --> 00:48:22,430
So Musha collected two accounts
of our tsunami

686
00:48:22,430 --> 00:48:26,079
from the Pacific Northwest
of the United States.

687
00:48:26,079 --> 00:48:30,719
And one of them’s up at number 3,
and the other is down at number 6.

688
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:35,579
And they are in that second volume that
was a collection of stuff that -- this is

689
00:48:35,589 --> 00:48:40,479
a printed version of what was issued
during the war in mimeograph.

690
00:48:40,479 --> 00:48:46,259
This helped out other Japanese
earthquake and tsunami historians

691
00:48:46,259 --> 00:48:53,209
in 1960 when they were kind of
reeling from the surprise.

692
00:48:53,209 --> 00:48:56,349
They knew that a very big earthquake --
seismologists there knew that a

693
00:48:56,349 --> 00:49:02,729
very big earthquake had happened
in Japan -- in Chile, rather.

694
00:49:02,729 --> 00:49:08,989
But they didn't expect that they would
get damage in Japan from the tsunami.

695
00:49:08,989 --> 00:49:11,499
And so the first
tsunami warning was issued

696
00:49:11,499 --> 00:49:14,910
only after the
first wave was ashore.

697
00:49:14,910 --> 00:49:22,779
And at this place, Ofunato, there were --
there were 53 fatalities.

698
00:49:22,779 --> 00:49:32,719
And the experience prompted
historically minded researchers

699
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:40,660
to ask what they could find in Japanese
archives about other floods from the sea

700
00:49:40,660 --> 00:49:45,670
that arrived without shaking
or a storm being felt in Japan.

701
00:49:45,670 --> 00:49:47,559
So think of the cat cartoon.

702
00:49:47,559 --> 00:49:53,599
The message there is, if you feel the
ground shake, a tsunami is coming.

703
00:49:53,599 --> 00:49:56,940
But the message here was,
even if you don't feel the ground shake,

704
00:49:56,940 --> 00:50:00,519
maybe a tsunami
is coming, right?

705
00:50:00,519 --> 00:50:04,660
And so they were curious about these
other -- and they were -- and they had --

706
00:50:04,660 --> 00:50:10,969
they had the Spanish-language catalogs
of earthquakes in South America.

707
00:50:10,969 --> 00:50:14,779
So they were able to -- and they knew
that it’s about a 24-hour travel time

708
00:50:14,779 --> 00:50:20,369
for a tsunami coming from the west
coast of South America to Japan.

709
00:50:20,369 --> 00:50:26,459
So they could -- they could go
to the archives in -- from the --

710
00:50:26,459 --> 00:50:32,569
from colonial Americas and
add 24 hours, essentially,

711
00:50:32,569 --> 00:50:35,969
to the time of occurrence of
the event down there, and then say,

712
00:50:35,969 --> 00:50:38,700
what do we have in our --
in our documents from that time?

713
00:50:38,700 --> 00:50:44,009
And they were able to identify all those,
plus they had one in January 1700,

714
00:50:44,009 --> 00:50:46,319
and they didn't know
where it came from.

715
00:50:46,319 --> 00:50:48,539
So this is -- and they --
this is one that Musha

716
00:50:48,539 --> 00:50:52,269
had already collected,
but they added to the collection.

717
00:50:52,269 --> 00:51:03,380
And still further editions came from a
group that did this in the ‘80s and ‘90s.

718
00:51:03,380 --> 00:51:09,339
Their exploration was prompted
in part by student unrest.

719
00:51:09,339 --> 00:51:16,430
That, in the -- in the late ‘60s or
early ‘70s -- I don't have the dates

720
00:51:16,430 --> 00:51:22,009
down anymore, but there was
a takeover -- a student takeover of the

721
00:51:22,009 --> 00:51:27,180
Earthquake Research Institute building
at the University of Tokyo for two years.

722
00:51:27,180 --> 00:51:34,079
And so, unable to get to their research
offices, some of the scientists involved

723
00:51:34,079 --> 00:51:36,569
there said, okay, well,
we’ll go out in the countryside

724
00:51:36,569 --> 00:51:42,009
and we’ll collect records
of old earthquakes and tsunamis.

725
00:51:42,009 --> 00:51:44,910
And so that effort
partly sprang from that.

726
00:51:44,910 --> 00:51:50,910
Also this work was --
as I understand it, was supported

727
00:51:50,910 --> 00:51:55,289
in part by TEPCO, the operators
of Fukushima reactors.

728
00:51:55,289 --> 00:52:03,839
So there was interest in the Japanese
electric power industry in doing this.

729
00:52:03,839 --> 00:52:10,380
The earliest known versions
of accounts of a tsunami

730
00:52:10,380 --> 00:52:15,209
in January 1700 in Japan are
the ones shown on this screen.

731
00:52:15,209 --> 00:52:21,180
And their places are
plotted there on the map.

732
00:52:21,180 --> 00:52:27,039
They styles, you can see, are -- the
writing styles are very, very different.

733
00:52:27,039 --> 00:52:31,200
The right-hand two are full of
[inaudible] characters.

734
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:35,900
These are the Chinese characters
that are -- that a person in the --

735
00:52:35,900 --> 00:52:42,009
kind of the ruling class, the military
caste, the Samurai, they were --

736
00:52:42,009 --> 00:52:48,089
at this point, in 1700, it had been
practically 100 years since

737
00:52:48,089 --> 00:52:52,329
consolidation of power
by the Tokugawa shogunate.

738
00:52:52,329 --> 00:52:54,589
And so it was a time of stability,
and these people were

739
00:52:54,589 --> 00:52:57,569
working as bureaucrats,
essentially.

740
00:52:57,569 --> 00:52:59,969
And so they -- but they knew
their Chinese characters,

741
00:52:59,969 --> 00:53:00,660
and they
wrote them well.

742
00:53:00,660 --> 00:53:03,660
And then -- and so did
some merchants.

743
00:53:03,660 --> 00:53:08,029
Numbers 3 and 6 are
in the hands of merchants.

744
00:53:08,029 --> 00:53:11,979
The number 6 merchant
was working as a --

745
00:53:11,979 --> 00:53:18,799
in a hereditary position as a mayor
of the castle town of the cat cartoon.

746
00:53:18,799 --> 00:53:24,380
And number 4 is an account of a --
it’s a -- what would you say?

747
00:53:24,380 --> 00:53:33,190
It’s a police report, a traffic accident
report, an insurance document

748
00:53:33,190 --> 00:53:36,959
concerning a boatload of rice
that got held offshore all day

749
00:53:36,959 --> 00:53:40,640
by waves -- strange waves
coming in and out of a port.

750
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:46,700
And then at night, a storm came up
and had dashed the boat into the rocks,

751
00:53:46,700 --> 00:53:48,059
and all the rice was lost.

752
00:53:48,059 --> 00:53:52,769
And the local villagers were in a position
of being accused of stealing things.

753
00:53:52,769 --> 00:53:56,329
So they went to the local Samurai
and they said, okay, write us --

754
00:53:56,329 --> 00:53:59,259
write us something
that clears us.

755
00:53:59,259 --> 00:54:02,739
And the ship captain probably
needed an insurance document.

756
00:54:02,739 --> 00:54:04,249
So that’s the
origin of number 4.

757
00:54:04,249 --> 00:54:08,509
And so, I mean,
it’s sort of amazing.

758
00:54:08,509 --> 00:54:11,700
Numbers 1 and 2 -- number 1
reads like a FEMA document.

759
00:54:11,700 --> 00:54:13,579
It's just amazing.
[laughter]

760
00:54:13,579 --> 00:54:17,219
And number 5 is the one
we’ll highlight here.

761
00:54:17,219 --> 00:54:26,989
It’s from an involved, inquisitive,
and slightly pretentious eyewitness.

762
00:54:26,989 --> 00:54:29,950
He is the -- we don't know
his name for sure.

763
00:54:29,950 --> 00:54:33,759
He’s the --
he’s the village head man.

764
00:54:33,759 --> 00:54:42,630
A village of some 300 people --
325 people down on this pine-covered

765
00:54:42,630 --> 00:54:47,270
peninsula that commands
a beautiful view across to Mount Fuji

766
00:54:47,270 --> 00:54:53,260
shown here before it became
asymmetrical with an eruption in 1707.

767
00:54:53,269 --> 00:54:58,699
And the road swinging left to right
is the one that connected

768
00:54:58,699 --> 00:55:06,269
imperial Kyoto to the shogun’s
headquarters in Edo -- in Tokyo.

769
00:55:06,269 --> 00:55:10,410
And the retirement villa
of the founding Tokugawa shogun,

770
00:55:10,410 --> 00:55:15,729
Ieyasu, is the castle
that you see there.

771
00:55:15,729 --> 00:55:19,930
This is part of a map --
you see the source from --

772
00:55:19,930 --> 00:55:24,119
at Berkeley where
Gilbert wanted to go.

773
00:55:24,119 --> 00:55:30,539
And the full -- it’s a strip map
of the Tokaido -- this highway.

774
00:55:30,539 --> 00:55:36,969
And the -- at full -- at original scale,
it’s -- the map is 40 feet long.

775
00:55:36,969 --> 00:55:39,019
It’s just an excerpt.

776
00:55:39,019 --> 00:55:43,109
So the village head man’s
accounts come down to us

777
00:55:43,109 --> 00:55:47,729
in a Best of the Beach Boys
kind of presentation here.

778
00:55:47,729 --> 00:55:54,660
There were -- somebody in the 1700s
saw that there was historical stuff

779
00:55:54,660 --> 00:55:58,380
of interest and -- in the
collection of documents

780
00:55:58,380 --> 00:56:00,449
that had been left
by various head men.

781
00:56:00,449 --> 00:56:05,359
And no doubt, these had been
ravaged by bookworms, literally,

782
00:56:05,359 --> 00:56:07,949
and maybe typhoon, fire --
who knows what.

783
00:56:07,949 --> 00:56:11,489
And so they were copied out.
So this is a secondary source.

784
00:56:11,489 --> 00:56:15,799
Some of the others are primary sources.
This is a secondary historical source.

785
00:56:15,799 --> 00:56:18,849
The book is full of detail.

786
00:56:18,849 --> 00:56:24,449
One of the -- my favorite one has to do
with a -- one of the two elephants that

787
00:56:24,449 --> 00:56:33,719
were sent to Japan -- a male-female pair
-- by a merchant from Korea.

788
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:38,670
And in -- what’s this -- in 1739, an
elephant passes through a nearby village.

789
00:56:38,670 --> 00:56:41,959
This is just a summary.

790
00:56:41,959 --> 00:56:46,239
Seven years old, two meters high,
three meters long,

791
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:51,680
tail extends one meter,
its tusks, four-tenths.

792
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,979
These are written actually
in Japanese units of the time.

793
00:56:54,979 --> 00:56:58,519
Its ears are shaped like ginkgo leaves,
its eyes like leaves of bamboo.

794
00:56:58,519 --> 00:57:02,609
Its daily diet includes
100 tangerines,

795
00:57:02,609 --> 00:57:08,929
three gallons of cooked rice,
and five gallons of sake.

796
00:57:08,929 --> 00:57:14,529
[laughter]

797
00:57:15,269 --> 00:57:18,819
So the village -- I mean, the village
head man was -- you know,

798
00:57:18,819 --> 00:57:24,959
I mean, they were noting
interesting things.

799
00:57:24,959 --> 00:57:26,519
So this is
that same account.

800
00:57:26,519 --> 00:57:28,259
And this village head man
does not know

801
00:57:28,259 --> 00:57:34,839
the Chinese characters that
our FEMA friends in the north knew.

802
00:57:34,839 --> 00:57:38,900
And so you see these -- this cursive look
and these very simple characters.

803
00:57:38,900 --> 00:57:41,940
So some of you who read
hiragana in Japanese

804
00:57:41,940 --> 00:57:46,269
can recognize some of
the characters here.

805
00:57:46,269 --> 00:57:53,209
So I’ll try to read an English translation
of the main parts of this account.

806
00:57:53,209 --> 00:57:59,049
And it will be in a Japanese syntax
where the preposition will follow

807
00:57:59,049 --> 00:58:06,190
its object, and the verb will tend
to come at the end of the sentence.

808
00:58:06,190 --> 00:58:10,699
And for -- we could use this
as an index map if we wanted,

809
00:58:10,699 --> 00:58:11,890
but I think
I’ll go to this one.

810
00:58:11,890 --> 00:58:17,680
This is a closer view from a map -- 1702
map from the Tokugawa shogunate.

811
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:24,369
And there’s a shrine that’s mentioned
in the -- in the account that this is Miho.

812
00:58:24,369 --> 00:58:29,459
Mi is -- in Japanese, can be 3.
And there’s the number 3 in Japanese,

813
00:58:29,459 --> 00:58:33,809
so this is -- and there,
of course, are the pine trees.

814
00:58:33,809 --> 00:58:41,009
So the account says -- first he tells you
when this is -- 12th month, 9th day.

815
00:58:41,009 --> 00:58:43,209
Oh, this is also blue moon.

816
00:58:43,209 --> 00:58:48,039
So the year that this happened,
the 12th year of Genroku era

817
00:58:48,039 --> 00:58:51,670
in Japan was a leap year.

818
00:58:51,670 --> 00:58:53,839
And it was a lunar calendar.

819
00:58:53,839 --> 00:58:59,299
So they could not have blue moons
in that calendar because

820
00:58:59,299 --> 00:59:01,689
the days were only -- is that right?
- Yes.

821
00:59:01,689 --> 00:59:06,529
- Only 29-1/2 days, on average, long.

822
00:59:06,529 --> 00:59:11,709
But this created a problem that every
three years, you needed to add a --

823
00:59:11,709 --> 00:59:17,349
add a month to your calendar in order
to get it back in sync with the sun.

824
00:59:17,349 --> 00:59:19,709
And there were a whole
bunch of rules about, you know,

825
00:59:19,709 --> 00:59:23,039
the auspicious times
to add the month.

826
00:59:23,039 --> 00:59:26,779
But anyways, this was the 12th month --
really, the last month.

827
00:59:26,779 --> 00:59:29,229
It was the 13th month if you
really count them because

828
00:59:29,229 --> 00:59:34,390
they had an extra month, number 9,
that they inserted beforehand.

829
00:59:34,390 --> 00:59:37,940
And so this is -- this is 12th month,
which sounds like December,

830
00:59:37,940 --> 00:59:41,699
but in a Western calendar,
it’s January.

831
00:59:41,699 --> 00:59:47,299
Twelfth month, 9th day,
morning hour of 6.

832
00:59:47,299 --> 00:59:53,729
The clock was divided into --
each 12 hours was divided

833
00:59:53,729 --> 00:59:56,229
into six somewhat
uneven parts.

834
00:59:56,229 --> 01:00:03,959
And hour of 6 happens to be in the
morning -- early morning hours.

835
01:00:03,959 --> 01:00:07,999
But the numbers go backwards.
So we’ll see -- they'll say number --

836
01:00:07,999 --> 01:00:11,779
hour of 4.
That’s later than hour of 6.

837
01:00:11,779 --> 01:00:13,400
[laughter]

838
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:15,660
I don't know.
A friend of mine took Japanese,

839
01:00:15,660 --> 01:00:18,240
and she said it cleared out
the cobwebs in her head.

840
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:21,019
[laughter]

841
01:00:21,019 --> 01:00:28,019
So -- all right, so wave, and then he
gives some places -- water became high

842
01:00:28,019 --> 01:00:39,459
-- high tide, or something like, entered
within pine groves up to that far reach.

843
01:00:39,459 --> 01:00:41,709
So got somewhere
into the pine groves.

844
01:00:41,709 --> 01:00:45,729
And he gives some place names
that you can kind of locate today.

845
01:00:45,729 --> 01:00:50,049
And then the -- when the
water went out, he says, as for that,

846
01:00:50,049 --> 01:00:54,150
the big river of speed like.

847
01:00:54,150 --> 01:00:59,599
And then that day’s hour of 4 until --
I think he means that --

848
01:00:59,599 --> 01:01:04,459
that’s about 10:00 a.m. --
seven times about rose.

849
01:01:04,459 --> 01:01:10,819
Gradually became calm.
Noon after from sea quiet became.

850
01:01:10,820 --> 01:01:13,759
Okay.

851
01:01:13,759 --> 01:01:16,839
Never heard of waves
of rising condition

852
01:01:16,839 --> 01:01:21,690
because of village old and young
trying to escape.

853
01:01:21,690 --> 01:01:25,539
Okay. So he’s probably
a young turk who can run fast,

854
01:01:25,539 --> 01:01:30,859
and he’s telling a more senior person
like me, you better go up to that shrine.

855
01:01:30,859 --> 01:01:35,119
Because, in the previous September,
there had been a typhoon

856
01:01:35,119 --> 01:01:38,190
with two fatalities here,
and the village had taken refuge

857
01:01:38,190 --> 01:01:40,309
on the shrine, which was
on the high ground.

858
01:01:40,309 --> 01:01:45,499
So they probably went to
the shrine in the picture.

859
01:01:45,499 --> 01:01:48,900
Then let’s see.
What does he say next?

860
01:01:48,900 --> 01:01:52,630
Okay.
Now he -- now he gets inquisitive,

861
01:01:52,630 --> 01:01:58,189
and he affects -- according to
one of my Japanese co-workers,

862
01:01:58,189 --> 01:02:03,650
who was the granddaughter
of a Tokugawa scribe,

863
01:02:03,650 --> 01:02:07,130
he affects an academic style
and totally fails.

864
01:02:07,130 --> 01:02:10,650
[laughter]
But he likes to use something

865
01:02:10,650 --> 01:02:15,680
that’s kind of the equivalent of et cetera.
It’s nado [to], he says.

866
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:19,619
And she thought
it was hilarious.

867
01:02:19,619 --> 01:02:26,640
So he says, to the old asked, but unusual
the wave’s appearance, they said.

868
01:02:26,640 --> 01:02:33,859
So that village whole -- village in --
the entire village -- was puzzled.

869
01:02:33,859 --> 01:02:40,229
Tsunami -- then he says -- tsunami
nado [to]. Su tsunami, nado [to].

870
01:02:40,229 --> 01:02:43,890
Okay, so tsunami
and such, or et cetera.

871
01:02:43,890 --> 01:02:48,009
And su tsunami, which meaning
wild waves, but nobody uses the term.

872
01:02:48,009 --> 01:02:52,869
And such -- what is called
such a thing, could it be?

873
01:02:52,869 --> 01:02:56,209
So he’s heard of this
thing called “tsunami,”

874
01:02:56,209 --> 01:02:57,999
and you -- and you --
and it’s great.

875
01:02:57,999 --> 01:03:01,229
He’s seen the cat cartoon. You’ll see.
[laughter]

876
01:03:01,229 --> 01:03:06,660
For many years to come, remember
well must -- okay, here he goes.

877
01:03:06,660 --> 01:03:11,160
Furthermore, earthquake nado --
earthquake, et cetera --

878
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:15,949
earthquake and such happens
if that reason [yotonami] --

879
01:03:15,949 --> 01:03:18,499
we don't know what [yotonami] is,
but he -- “nami” is waves,

880
01:03:18,499 --> 01:03:22,029
so, you know, he’s talking
about these -- this phenomenon.

881
01:03:22,029 --> 01:03:26,989
[Yotonami] and such are
things that come, it is said.

882
01:03:26,989 --> 01:03:32,140
But this village vicinity
in earthquake any did not happen.

883
01:03:32,140 --> 01:03:36,949
Yeah? Right?
So this is -- this is --

884
01:03:36,949 --> 01:03:40,479
he expects the cat association,
and he doesn't get.

885
01:03:40,479 --> 01:03:43,949
So he’s wondering, is this
nonetheless the tsunami.

886
01:03:43,949 --> 01:03:51,119
And so, for me, as a person working --
living west of I-5, you know, I . . .

887
01:03:51,119 --> 01:03:54,349
[laughter]
I mean, it’s a real marvel to read that

888
01:03:54,349 --> 01:03:58,180
and, you know, hear this --
hear this person speaking to you

889
01:03:58,180 --> 01:04:03,180
from the other side of the ocean,
from 315 years ago,

890
01:04:03,180 --> 01:04:08,279
and in another culture, and asking
where his tsunami came from.

891
01:04:08,279 --> 01:04:11,160
And you’re living in the area
where that probably came from.

892
01:04:11,160 --> 01:04:17,069
It’s a remarkable thing
to make that connection.

893
01:04:17,069 --> 01:04:23,420
So that connection was put
into a computer by a fine Japanese

894
01:04:23,420 --> 01:04:32,900
geophysicist, Kenji Satake, who made
this snapshot from a tsunami model.

895
01:04:32,900 --> 01:04:35,699
And if we showed the whole thing,
you'd see it just --

896
01:04:35,699 --> 01:04:40,109
the tsunami progressively radiating
westward across the Pacific.

897
01:04:40,109 --> 01:04:44,439
So this, of course, is just the opposite of
what happened in March 2011 when

898
01:04:44,439 --> 01:04:50,699
a tsunami generated along the Japanese
coast went over to North America.

899
01:04:50,699 --> 01:04:55,640
And the effects -- the effects
of the tsunami in March 2011

900
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:57,930
were great on the
near field coast, right?

901
01:04:57,930 --> 01:05:01,279
Because the waves were big,
and they arrived fast.

902
01:05:01,279 --> 01:05:04,989
And there was -- there was a little bit
of loss of life, and something like

903
01:05:04,989 --> 01:05:09,239
$50 million worth of damage
on this side of the pond.

904
01:05:09,239 --> 01:05:12,170
But comparatively
minor effects, right?

905
01:05:12,170 --> 01:05:15,519
And so now you’re looking
at the reverse of that.

906
01:05:15,519 --> 01:05:19,959
And so you're thinking, okay,
so in that way, the -- you can hold up

907
01:05:19,959 --> 01:05:24,400
what happened in Japan in 2011
as something of a mirror.

908
01:05:24,400 --> 01:05:28,959
But anyways, the -- in the simulation,
the tsunami comes down the coast.

909
01:05:28,959 --> 01:05:32,900
You see the Genroku 12 month --
12 month -- we’ve talked about that.

910
01:05:32,900 --> 01:05:37,189
Hour nine is either midnight or noon.
They say hour nine at night.

911
01:05:37,189 --> 01:05:41,170
So it was then.
So that’s how -- and allowing

912
01:05:41,170 --> 01:05:45,150
for a 10-hour flight between SeaTac
and Narita, which is tsunami speed,

913
01:05:45,150 --> 01:05:52,410
that’s how the evening of
26 January 1700 was identified as

914
01:05:52,410 --> 01:05:57,160
the time of this otherwise prehistoric
tsunami is northwestern North America.

915
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:59,930
I mean, this might as well be
back in the time of the dinosaurs

916
01:05:59,930 --> 01:06:05,269
in terms of dating except that
you have this kind of precision.

917
01:06:05,269 --> 01:06:14,229
But it really wasn't -- it wasn't all that
clear to those of us in North America.

918
01:06:14,229 --> 01:06:19,809
The radiocarbon dating
that I mentioned,

919
01:06:19,809 --> 01:06:25,049
there was radon contamination in the
lab that made these measurements.

920
01:06:25,049 --> 01:06:31,059
And the dates we got on them had 1700
at the lunatic fringe of possibilities.

921
01:06:31,059 --> 01:06:37,339
I was very skeptical of 1700
and encouraged Kenji Satake

922
01:06:37,339 --> 01:06:42,489
to reconsider even
publishing his results.

923
01:06:42,489 --> 01:06:45,930
But the lab straightened out
its radon problem,

924
01:06:45,930 --> 01:06:51,059
and 1700 fell into the
time again of tree death.

925
01:06:51,059 --> 01:06:54,170
But still, that’s a
very broad window, right?

926
01:06:54,170 --> 01:06:58,189
January 1700 -- it’s pretty easy
to fit January 1700

927
01:06:58,189 --> 01:07:00,239
somewhere between
1680 and 1720.

928
01:07:00,239 --> 01:07:03,229
So it’s a
very permissive fit.

929
01:07:03,229 --> 01:07:04,849
So how do you --
how do you test it?

930
01:07:04,849 --> 01:07:08,869
You’re never going to
demonstrate exact --

931
01:07:08,869 --> 01:07:13,489
that it was exactly that same time,
but you could show if it was different.

932
01:07:13,489 --> 01:07:16,449
If you could show that --
suppose you could show

933
01:07:16,449 --> 01:07:23,130
that these trees died in 1698,
or that they died in 1702?

934
01:07:23,130 --> 01:07:27,119
Then that Japanese tsunami could not
have come from -- easily from this place.

935
01:07:27,119 --> 01:07:31,410
So that was the game of trying
to improve the precision.

936
01:07:31,410 --> 01:07:36,420
So the characters in this --
there are four estuaries.

937
01:07:36,420 --> 01:07:39,349
The one -- the northernmost
yellow dot is the place I showed you

938
01:07:39,349 --> 01:07:45,549
with the -- with the trees
sticking up out of the marsh.

939
01:07:45,549 --> 01:07:51,719
And the others -- the southernmost
is Columbia River,

940
01:07:51,719 --> 01:07:55,529
and the other --
Willapa Bay is second down.

941
01:07:55,529 --> 01:07:58,839
But this is a good pointer.
[laughter]

942
01:07:58,839 --> 01:08:06,209
So this comes from
one of these trees

943
01:08:06,209 --> 01:08:09,519
that was sitting up onto
old growth western red cedar.

944
01:08:09,519 --> 01:08:15,259
Weyerhaeuser cut this down in 1986.
And the tree was -- the tree was standing

945
01:08:15,259 --> 01:08:22,770
up on a -- on a hill high enough
that the tides could not reach it.

946
01:08:22,770 --> 01:08:28,150
So it’s a witness
to the crime, okay?

947
01:08:28,150 --> 01:08:33,309
And the exterior of the tree --
there’s bark out here.

948
01:08:33,309 --> 01:08:36,329
And then this is
the rotted-out interior.

949
01:08:36,329 --> 01:08:39,779
And there was another sort of a --
western red cedar has this

950
01:08:39,779 --> 01:08:46,670
glorious phenomenon called
butt rot that rots out the middle.

951
01:08:46,670 --> 01:08:52,630
And there’s a tree ring scientist
who worked with these guys here,

952
01:08:52,630 --> 01:08:54,529
the victims, right?

953
01:08:54,529 --> 01:08:59,339
So let me -- let me advance the slide
so you can see him.

954
01:08:59,339 --> 01:09:05,130
Okay, so his grandfather
was sent to concentration camps

955
01:09:05,130 --> 01:09:13,380
in Idaho and Oklahoma
during the war.

956
01:09:13,380 --> 01:09:19,909
And what David did was he
measured up the rings in the

957
01:09:19,909 --> 01:09:26,790
Weyerhaeuser-cut witness trees,
going back -- these go back to 1439.

958
01:09:26,790 --> 01:09:28,770
And he had others that
took him back farther.

959
01:09:28,770 --> 01:09:33,199
He built a master barcode
of wide rings and narrow rings.

960
01:09:33,199 --> 01:09:39,449
He figured out a master barcode
going back that far, okay?

961
01:09:39,449 --> 01:09:43,319
And then he measured -- he measured
the rings in the victim trees.

962
01:09:43,319 --> 01:09:47,429
And this one’s got the
weather-beaten exterior, okay?

963
01:09:47,429 --> 01:09:51,859
And then he asked
whether the barcode in --

964
01:09:51,859 --> 01:09:56,130
the piece of barcode in here
fits at this place.

965
01:09:56,130 --> 01:09:58,829
And then he’d ask, does it fit here?
Does it fit here?

966
01:09:58,829 --> 01:10:00,099
Does it fit here?
Right?

967
01:10:00,099 --> 01:10:04,360
And he’d compute a goodness-of-fit
statistic for each of those places.

968
01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:09,550
And if he had enough rings -- this ring --
this one contained too few rings, by far.

969
01:10:09,550 --> 01:10:15,570
But if he had enough rings, upwards
of 200 or 300 rings, in the victim tree,

970
01:10:15,570 --> 01:10:19,929
he was able to get a strong
statistical match at just one place.

971
01:10:19,929 --> 01:10:25,030
So he knew the dates of the rings in the
barcode -- the master barcode, right?

972
01:10:25,030 --> 01:10:31,610
So then he could assign dates
to the rings in the -- in the trunk wood.

973
01:10:31,610 --> 01:10:35,579
And then there’s
one more part of this.

974
01:10:35,579 --> 01:10:40,679
Got to go back.

975
01:10:40,679 --> 01:10:46,030
Whoops, the other way.
Okay.

976
01:10:46,030 --> 01:10:50,070
So here’s where -- here’s where
the shovel gets into action.

977
01:10:50,070 --> 01:10:53,300
Because you've got to dig down
to where the bark is still preserved

978
01:10:53,300 --> 01:10:56,010
on the roots if you want to ask a tree,
when did you die?

979
01:10:56,010 --> 01:10:58,030
Because what we were
asking these trees is,

980
01:10:58,030 --> 01:11:04,340
did you die just after January 1700,
as Kenji Satake says you did?

981
01:11:04,340 --> 01:11:07,920
And so we had to dig down
through about a meter of mud.

982
01:11:07,920 --> 01:11:12,659
And not all of them had it preserved,
but here’s an example of a root

983
01:11:12,659 --> 01:11:16,440
that has very beautiful sap wood
all around the outside there.

984
01:11:16,440 --> 01:11:19,730
Before the chainsaw rattled it off,
there was bark on the exterior.

985
01:11:19,730 --> 01:11:23,159
So it was possible to get out
to the last year the tree was alive.

986
01:11:23,159 --> 01:11:26,750
And we were able to ask these trees,
then, you know, what is the --

987
01:11:26,750 --> 01:11:32,520
David had dated the trunk wood,
and we could -- we could drag the date

988
01:11:32,520 --> 01:11:35,469
down into the roots
because there are marker rings --

989
01:11:35,469 --> 01:11:38,130
certain rings that are
characteristically narrow.

990
01:11:38,130 --> 01:11:40,559
So you could track those
down into the root

991
01:11:40,559 --> 01:11:46,480
and then go out to the bark and ask, what
is the year of the ring at the bark, right?

992
01:11:46,480 --> 01:11:50,670
And so, in the -- in seven of the
eight trees we were able to do that with,

993
01:11:50,670 --> 01:11:55,020
that ring was a complete ring
from the year 1699.

994
01:11:55,020 --> 01:11:56,679
Yeah?

995
01:11:56,679 --> 01:12:03,900
And so the growing season
goes maybe April or May

996
01:12:03,900 --> 01:12:06,510
to August or September, right?

997
01:12:06,510 --> 01:12:11,159
So these trees lived through
August of -- September of 1699,

998
01:12:11,159 --> 01:12:16,790
and they were probably dead
by May of 1700.

999
01:12:16,790 --> 01:12:20,650
And the Japanese tsunami
is January.

1000
01:12:20,650 --> 01:12:24,780
So with that kind of resolution,
you see, we can't --

1001
01:12:24,780 --> 01:12:30,840
we can't prove that this is
January 1700 tree death.

1002
01:12:30,840 --> 01:12:35,210
But we could have easily shown
that it was some other time, right?

1003
01:12:35,210 --> 01:12:38,150
So that’s the way it’s --
I think they say

1004
01:12:38,150 --> 01:12:44,910
fail to falsify is about
the best you could do.

1005
01:12:50,880 --> 01:12:57,100
Okay, so the punchline
then became this.

1006
01:12:57,110 --> 01:13:00,099
There are a couple of
these signs that were dedicated

1007
01:13:00,099 --> 01:13:02,429
just after the
2004 Indian Ocean disaster.

1008
01:13:02,429 --> 01:13:08,800
But, you know, this story
came together in the ‘90s.

1009
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:14,000
And here you’re on
part of the Oregon coast.

1010
01:13:14,000 --> 01:13:18,020
And it’s a memorial
to the presumed victims --

1011
01:13:18,020 --> 01:13:21,070
Native American victims
of the 1700 tsunami.

1012
01:13:21,070 --> 01:13:26,900
And it’s also a tsunami
education device, you know.

1013
01:13:26,900 --> 01:13:32,420
So this is sort of the most direct way
that people have used this story.

1014
01:13:32,420 --> 01:13:36,260
And for me, as a geologist, when I --
when I started working with

1015
01:13:36,260 --> 01:13:40,260
seeing evidence for dead trees
and buried soils and sand sheets

1016
01:13:40,260 --> 01:13:45,170
and stuff like this, and I’d go out
to the coast, and I’d say, well,

1017
01:13:45,170 --> 01:13:48,710
sometime between 1680 and 1720,
there was an earthquake,

1018
01:13:48,710 --> 01:13:51,770
or a series of earthquakes --
we don't know which --

1019
01:13:51,770 --> 01:13:58,540
and it could have been a magnitude 8,
or maybe it was a magnitude 9.

1020
01:13:58,540 --> 01:14:00,300
And so you’re sort of
always backtracking

1021
01:14:00,300 --> 01:14:04,280
because you’re trying to be
honest about what you don't know.

1022
01:14:04,280 --> 01:14:08,199
And now you go out there and you say,
well, on the evening

1023
01:14:08,199 --> 01:14:11,619
of 26th January 1700, there was
a magnitude 9 earthquake.

1024
01:14:11,619 --> 01:14:14,599
People say, okay.
They know what they're talking about.

1025
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:17,440
[laughter]

1026
01:14:18,739 --> 01:14:22,610
So that makes a difference in
communicating hazard fundamentally,

1027
01:14:22,610 --> 01:14:24,570
to have
fewer uncertainties.

1028
01:14:24,570 --> 01:14:29,570
Here’s an example of a hazard
communicated after the fact.

1029
01:14:29,570 --> 01:14:37,099
So the sign went up here in Thailand
after the 2004 Indian Ocean disaster.

1030
01:14:37,099 --> 01:14:43,679
The sign was designed in Oregon in the,
I think, late ‘90s or early 2000s.

1031
01:14:43,679 --> 01:14:47,590
And so this is the
kind of thing you want --

1032
01:14:47,590 --> 01:14:50,480
you want to get out there
beforehand, right?

1033
01:14:50,480 --> 01:14:53,770
And that’s -- in that sense,
the history that we’ve

1034
01:14:53,770 --> 01:14:55,650
just talked about is
a warning system.

1035
01:14:55,650 --> 01:14:58,719
I mean, people talk a lot about
earthquake early warning systems

1036
01:14:58,719 --> 01:15:02,179
and tsunami warning systems,
but in some ways, the fundamental

1037
01:15:02,179 --> 01:15:05,960
tsunami warning system is knowing that
you've got the problem to begin with.

1038
01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:09,790
And that wasn't the case
here in the Reagan years, right --

1039
01:15:09,790 --> 01:15:15,730
so in the case
of Cascadia.

1040
01:15:15,730 --> 01:15:21,280
This is a kind of a messy diagram,
but the idea here is that --

1041
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:26,059
you remember the breakfast links
and the dinner sausage.

1042
01:15:26,059 --> 01:15:32,610
So over at right is a -- is a dinner sausage
for 1700, and underneath “Next?"

1043
01:15:32,610 --> 01:15:35,020
is the question as to whether it’s
going to be a dinner sausage

1044
01:15:35,020 --> 01:15:41,320
or breakfast links --
a series of lesser earthquakes.

1045
01:15:41,320 --> 01:15:44,929
And then, right at left -- and then
there’s a scale that just shows

1046
01:15:44,929 --> 01:15:48,699
the length of the fault and the
width of the rupture,

1047
01:15:48,699 --> 01:15:53,500
and the width is approximately scaled
just as we had on the maps before.

1048
01:15:53,500 --> 01:15:58,520
But in southwest Japan, there’s a
subduction zone that had a very, very

1049
01:15:58,520 --> 01:16:05,290
big earthquake in 1707, and it broke
piecemeal -- 32 hours apart in 1854.

1050
01:16:05,290 --> 01:16:09,650
So that’s why we couldn't with -- even
with the tree ring dating that David did,

1051
01:16:09,650 --> 01:16:16,079
you couldn't tell, you know, something
32 hours apart with that kind of clock.

1052
01:16:16,079 --> 01:16:22,590
And then, in the ‘40s -- 1944 and 1946,
there were these pair of earthquakes.

1053
01:16:22,590 --> 01:16:25,460
So this subduction zone is versatile.

1054
01:16:25,460 --> 01:16:29,030
It can break all at once,
or it can do the dinner sausage,

1055
01:16:29,030 --> 01:16:33,380
or it can -- it’s got
options on its menu.

1056
01:16:33,380 --> 01:16:38,380
And the -- a classic example, also off of
northern South America there, with the

1057
01:16:38,380 --> 01:16:42,489
1906 Colombia, Ecuador, and then the
series of earthquakes that followed.

1058
01:16:42,489 --> 01:16:45,119
And then finally,
the 2004 Indian Ocean disaster

1059
01:16:45,119 --> 01:16:48,440
was spawned
by a very long rupture.

1060
01:16:48,440 --> 01:16:52,599
But there were some predecessors
that were much shorter.

1061
01:16:52,599 --> 01:16:55,989
So this is a -- this is one of the big,
open questions with Cascadia

1062
01:16:55,989 --> 01:17:01,079
is it’s commonly said that Cascadia
dependably produces earthquakes

1063
01:17:01,079 --> 01:17:07,119
of magnitude 9, but I think that’s the --
without the supporting evidence

1064
01:17:07,119 --> 01:17:10,210
from Japan, essentially,
it’s hard to make that case.

1065
01:17:10,210 --> 01:17:14,190
The Japanese evidence
was explained by --

1066
01:17:14,190 --> 01:17:19,369
it's very hard to explain the flooding
and damage in Japan by moving

1067
01:17:19,369 --> 01:17:22,800
the amount of water that you'd move
with -- during a magnitude 8 earthquake.

1068
01:17:22,800 --> 01:17:27,070
You need a much bigger area
of displacement to do that,

1069
01:17:27,070 --> 01:17:29,750
according to
the tsunami people.

1070
01:17:29,750 --> 01:17:34,780
As for repetition, I know there’s
some estimates out there that were --

1071
01:17:34,780 --> 01:17:38,170
that were cited in that
New Yorker article about how the --

1072
01:17:38,170 --> 01:17:43,380
about 250 years, on average,
between big Cascadia earthquakes.

1073
01:17:43,380 --> 01:17:47,059
The consensus numbers, at least
for the strong evidence

1074
01:17:47,059 --> 01:17:53,730
involving land level change up and
down the coast is close to 500 years.

1075
01:17:53,730 --> 01:17:59,449
And the 250 is an estimate
from offshore evidence that --

1076
01:17:59,449 --> 01:18:03,820
where those findings have
not been replicated on shore.

1077
01:18:03,820 --> 01:18:10,170
And it’s from a single research group,
so the safeguards that were

1078
01:18:10,170 --> 01:18:14,150
built into the coastal work
haven't been played out there yet.

1079
01:18:14,150 --> 01:18:21,770
So I tend to go conservative, as it were,
with that 500 round number.

1080
01:18:21,770 --> 01:18:27,380
But this cartoon really represents a
3,500-year earthquake history

1081
01:18:27,380 --> 01:18:31,050
inferred from land level change
at those southwest Washington estuaries.

1082
01:18:31,050 --> 01:18:34,440
And the yellow bars --
if the yellow bar is really wide,

1083
01:18:34,440 --> 01:18:36,639
it means I didn't
do my job very well.

1084
01:18:36,639 --> 01:18:41,730
And if it’s really narrow,
then the uncertainties are small.

1085
01:18:41,730 --> 01:18:47,989
And the rings in the victim red cedars
are showing their lifespans

1086
01:18:47,989 --> 01:18:52,050
when the land probably
did not drop during their watch.

1087
01:18:52,050 --> 01:18:57,460
But anyways, you can see that the
earthquakes happened like clockwork.

1088
01:18:57,460 --> 01:19:00,070
And they're very --
they're predictable, right?

1089
01:19:00,070 --> 01:19:04,659
[laughter]
No, I mean, they're very irregular

1090
01:19:04,659 --> 01:19:08,579
lengths of time between them,
but there are some example, like the --

1091
01:19:08,579 --> 01:19:14,579
between about the year 400 A.D.
and 700 A.D., there’s a --

1092
01:19:14,579 --> 01:19:18,059
there’s an interval of
just about 300 years --

1093
01:19:18,059 --> 01:19:21,530
350 years between those
back-to-back earthquakes.

1094
01:19:21,530 --> 01:19:28,070
So in that sense, you know, you have
precedent for short intervals.

1095
01:19:28,070 --> 01:19:32,250
But then the preceding interval
looks like it lasted a thousand years.

1096
01:19:32,250 --> 01:19:36,909
All right, so what are people
doing with this information?

1097
01:19:36,909 --> 01:19:42,079
There’s a lot --
there's a lot of effort underway,

1098
01:19:42,079 --> 01:19:45,599
as there is down here, to protect
people against earthquakes.

1099
01:19:45,599 --> 01:19:51,489
And while the hazards that are out there
are much bigger than the efforts

1100
01:19:51,489 --> 01:19:54,889
to deal with them, it’s
still important to -- I think, for us,

1101
01:19:54,889 --> 01:19:58,159
as humans, just to call attention
to things that we’re trying to do.

1102
01:19:58,159 --> 01:20:03,010
It’s sort of the glass
half-full attitude, I guess.

1103
01:20:03,010 --> 01:20:07,260
But in this case, we’re out
on the Washington coast.

1104
01:20:07,260 --> 01:20:11,920
Grays Harbor is
near the WPPSS plant.

1105
01:20:11,920 --> 01:20:16,739
And the Pacific Ocean in the
air photo is down at the bottom.

1106
01:20:16,739 --> 01:20:22,530
And what you have is a
school ground with the dotted --

1107
01:20:22,530 --> 01:20:27,300
the dog-legged dotted line
pointing to an old circular gymnasium,

1108
01:20:27,300 --> 01:20:31,610
so the air photo
was taken in 1977.

1109
01:20:31,610 --> 01:20:39,670
And the construction photo at left
is of a vertical evacuation structure

1110
01:20:39,670 --> 01:20:45,010
that’s being built on top of --
as part of a school reconstruction.

1111
01:20:45,010 --> 01:20:48,409
And down below is an artist’s
conception of what the school

1112
01:20:48,409 --> 01:20:53,469
gymnasium will look like,
and you can see,

1113
01:20:53,469 --> 01:20:54,730
in that construction photo,

1114
01:20:54,730 --> 01:20:59,829
there are towers that are the towers
that are on the corners here.

1115
01:20:59,829 --> 01:21:02,909
And the entry will be here.
And then there is to be

1116
01:21:02,909 --> 01:21:07,880
room for 1,000 --
up to 1,000 people on the roof.

1117
01:21:07,880 --> 01:21:14,659
And the impetus for this
came locally.

1118
01:21:14,659 --> 01:21:24,309
There was a bond measure passed.
I think there were 1,500 ballots cast

1119
01:21:24,309 --> 01:21:28,150
for a local school district
in this not-very-affluent part

1120
01:21:28,150 --> 01:21:33,659
of the Washington coast
in April of 2013.

1121
01:21:33,659 --> 01:21:39,239
And by a margin of 70% to 30%,
the bond measure went forward.

1122
01:21:39,239 --> 01:21:45,780
It was something like $13.8 million that
they're borrowing to rebuild this school.

1123
01:21:45,780 --> 01:21:49,869
They needed -- they knew they
needed to fix the school anyways.

1124
01:21:49,869 --> 01:21:54,679
And on the -- sort of the time scale of
the tsunami warning provided by

1125
01:21:54,679 --> 01:22:01,739
Earth history, they had the option of
doing this, and they decided to do it.

1126
01:22:01,739 --> 01:22:06,650
They -- one of the things
they did beforehand was to get a --

1127
01:22:06,650 --> 01:22:12,530
some tsunami modelers to go out
and figure out what kind of inundation

1128
01:22:12,530 --> 01:22:18,820
they could expect there with an
unusually large tsunami generated nearby.

1129
01:22:18,820 --> 01:22:22,510
So the first part of it was just to
figure out the lay of the land.

1130
01:22:22,510 --> 01:22:27,630
So there’s a topographic profile
going across the kilometer scale.

1131
01:22:27,630 --> 01:22:33,469
So if you go from the ocean to
the harbor, it’s essentially a mile.

1132
01:22:33,469 --> 01:22:39,960
And the highest ground along this is
about 20 feet -- something like that --

1133
01:22:39,960 --> 01:22:46,610
the tops of the sand ridges.
And the schools, you see where they are.

1134
01:22:46,610 --> 01:22:51,320
And so what the modelers did
first is they say, okay,

1135
01:22:51,320 --> 01:22:53,670
during the earthquake,
what’s going to happen?

1136
01:22:53,670 --> 01:22:59,329
Okay? So they're not thinking of the
direction that Maria Graham saw it.

1137
01:22:59,329 --> 01:23:03,840
They're thinking -- or George Plafker
measured there at Montague Island.

1138
01:23:03,840 --> 01:23:06,400
They're looking at the Portage
direction because they know

1139
01:23:06,400 --> 01:23:10,719
from the geology here that during
the big -- that one of the big --

1140
01:23:10,719 --> 01:23:15,920
the most dependable signature of big
earthquakes here is land dropping and

1141
01:23:15,920 --> 01:23:20,849
that the amount of down-drop can be on
the order of five feet, something like that.

1142
01:23:20,849 --> 01:23:25,530
So they assumed a better
than six-foot -- two-meter drop.

1143
01:23:25,530 --> 01:23:28,789
So that’s the first thing that happens,
and it lowers the coastal plain

1144
01:23:28,789 --> 01:23:31,590
that you see there
in the air photo.

1145
01:23:31,590 --> 01:23:35,809
And then they let the
simulated tsunami come ashore.

1146
01:23:35,809 --> 01:23:39,420
And what’s plotted for the tsunami
is the peak height attained.

1147
01:23:39,420 --> 01:23:43,179
It’s not that the tsunami looks like
this in a snapshot view,

1148
01:23:43,179 --> 01:23:46,610
but the peak height attained.

1149
01:23:46,610 --> 01:23:50,460
And so they're getting --
they're getting maybe a peak height

1150
01:23:50,460 --> 01:23:57,360
at the coast of about 35 feet above
the post-earthquake high water level.

1151
01:23:57,360 --> 01:24:03,020
And then the tsunami loses steam
as it goes across the plain,

1152
01:24:03,020 --> 01:24:07,010
and those two tall ridges,
which the modelers allowed to be

1153
01:24:07,010 --> 01:24:11,199
decapitated slightly
by the tsunami,

1154
01:24:11,199 --> 01:24:14,539
those two tall ridges still
provide some measure of protection.

1155
01:24:14,539 --> 01:24:19,300
So the water’s only one or two meters
deep at the site of the refuge.

1156
01:24:19,300 --> 01:24:25,159
And as you saw, the plan is to
have the top of the --

1157
01:24:25,159 --> 01:24:30,199
that platform for 1,000 people
be 30 feet above ground surface.

1158
01:24:30,199 --> 01:24:33,520
So that’s the top of the
green bar on that graph.

1159
01:24:33,520 --> 01:24:36,849
So you see the measure
of safety they've tried to provide.

1160
01:24:36,849 --> 01:24:41,340
And then they've built into the design
resistance to strong shaking,

1161
01:24:41,340 --> 01:24:45,710
and they're driving piles as much as
50 feet deep to prevent the building

1162
01:24:45,710 --> 01:24:47,579
from being undermined
by tsunami scour.

1163
01:24:47,579 --> 01:24:53,590
And for that, they're using some lessons
from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami.

1164
01:24:53,590 --> 01:24:59,670
So, yeah, this is a -- there’s a lot more
of this that needs to be done, but this is --

1165
01:24:59,670 --> 01:25:04,090
this is where this basic research
that goes all the way back --

1166
01:25:04,090 --> 01:25:08,730
you can see the Alaskan imprint
in here, in a way.

1167
01:25:08,730 --> 01:25:13,429
I mean, the foundation from the --
from the studies in Alaska and then --

1168
01:25:13,429 --> 01:25:18,320
and even going back farther to
make it possible to have

1169
01:25:18,320 --> 01:25:23,429
the scientific understanding to yield
this sort of engineering design.

1170
01:25:23,429 --> 01:25:26,320
Thank you very much.

1171
01:25:26,320 --> 01:25:32,240
[ Applause ]

1172
01:25:32,240 --> 01:25:35,920
- Thank you, Brian.

1173
01:25:35,920 --> 01:25:39,500
It’s a little late, I know.
We’ll -- but I know many of you

1174
01:25:39,500 --> 01:25:42,400
have questions, and you already
know the drill, some of you.

1175
01:25:42,400 --> 01:25:44,949
We have two microphones
in the room.

1176
01:25:44,949 --> 01:25:48,610
One microphone over on this aisle, and
the other on the far side of the room.

1177
01:25:48,610 --> 01:25:51,550
If you would please get up and
line up behind the microphones

1178
01:25:51,550 --> 01:25:56,530
to ask any questions, not only so that
those of us in the room can hear you,

1179
01:25:56,530 --> 01:25:59,989
but there are people
watching online,

1180
01:25:59,989 --> 01:26:02,469
and we want them to be able to
hear you as well.

1181
01:26:02,469 --> 01:26:06,369
So if you’re not able to get up
to come to the microphone,

1182
01:26:06,369 --> 01:26:09,530
just give me a wave,
and I’ll bring a microphone to you.

1183
01:26:09,530 --> 01:26:12,309
So who wants to
ask the first question?

1184
01:26:18,580 --> 01:26:20,800
- We may have a victim there.
- Go ahead.

1185
01:26:20,800 --> 01:26:23,400
- Hello. Is this working?

1186
01:26:23,400 --> 01:26:28,440
- Mike, can you turn up this mic?

1187
01:26:30,219 --> 01:26:43,339
[ Silence ]

1188
01:26:45,240 --> 01:26:49,180
- All right.
Now you can hear me, hopefully.

1189
01:26:49,180 --> 01:26:51,639
Yeah, thank you.
This was a great talk.

1190
01:26:51,639 --> 01:26:54,920
I really learned a lot
and enjoyed it.

1191
01:26:54,920 --> 01:26:58,070
I understand there was
a seismology conference in progress

1192
01:26:58,070 --> 01:27:01,050
in Tokyo in 2011
during the earthquake.

1193
01:27:01,050 --> 01:27:03,060
Were you
at that conference?

1194
01:27:03,060 --> 01:27:10,739
- No, I've not worked in Japan from --
since maybe 2005.

1195
01:27:10,739 --> 01:27:16,070
- And so I was wondering if you
would -- or would have liked to have

1196
01:27:16,070 --> 01:27:20,739
been there or maybe are a little envious
of the seismologists that were there?

1197
01:27:20,739 --> 01:27:24,979
- No, I don't think so.
[laughter]

1198
01:27:24,980 --> 01:27:29,280
No, it’s not -- it’s not a matter
of personal safety.

1199
01:27:29,280 --> 01:27:36,630
It’s this.
That that’s a whole nother talk

1200
01:27:36,630 --> 01:27:43,130
of the Japanese efforts to understand
the earthquake and tsunami hazards

1201
01:27:43,130 --> 01:27:45,659
along the Japan trench
and how those efforts

1202
01:27:45,659 --> 01:27:51,429
were overtaken by the
2011 earthquake and tsunami.

1203
01:27:51,429 --> 01:27:57,340
And some of this story
has to do with scientific ideas

1204
01:27:57,340 --> 01:28:01,239
that were just so deeply embedded,
it was hard to get past them.

1205
01:28:01,239 --> 01:28:04,420
But people were making progress
in that direction.

1206
01:28:04,420 --> 01:28:10,210
Another part of the story is that,
in the aftermath of the 2004 disaster

1207
01:28:10,210 --> 01:28:18,179
on Indian Ocean Shores, the A teams
of many Japanese research institutes

1208
01:28:18,179 --> 01:28:24,929
went to Indian Ocean Shores partly
in their version of USAID -- JICA.

1209
01:28:24,929 --> 01:28:28,079
And they provided a
great deal more assistance

1210
01:28:28,079 --> 01:28:33,789
than our country was able to provide,
by and large, in those areas.

1211
01:28:33,789 --> 01:28:37,119
And so, in some respects,
you could say that they

1212
01:28:37,119 --> 01:28:41,619
were distracted by -- from the
hazard in their front yard.

1213
01:28:41,619 --> 01:28:46,780
But Japanese researchers
were very busy doing this stuff.

1214
01:28:46,780 --> 01:28:51,559
And one of them, a paleontologist --
a micropaleontologist I had worked with,

1215
01:28:51,559 --> 01:28:55,050
with a young family,
some of us wrote him

1216
01:28:55,050 --> 01:28:58,639
just after the 2011 earthquake
and tsunami.

1217
01:28:58,639 --> 01:29:00,889
And we said, are you okay?
And we knew that --

1218
01:29:00,889 --> 01:29:03,250
about Fukushima,
and they were close to Fukushima.

1219
01:29:03,250 --> 01:29:06,579
We said, you know, do you want
your family to come to the states,

1220
01:29:06,579 --> 01:29:09,519
we’d be glad to take care of them,
and that kind of stuff.

1221
01:29:09,520 --> 01:29:17,580
And he said, no, my family’s okay,
but my Jogan work is not published,

1222
01:29:17,590 --> 01:29:19,320
and now it’s too late.

1223
01:29:19,320 --> 01:29:25,500
And Jogan was the name --
Jogan’s an era, like Genroku.

1224
01:29:25,500 --> 01:29:35,400
And Jogan is -- in 869, there was a
predecessor to the 2011 disaster.

1225
01:29:35,400 --> 01:29:39,219
And it was the job of
geologists and paleontologists

1226
01:29:39,219 --> 01:29:42,730
to figure out that disaster.
And in the wake of the

1227
01:29:42,730 --> 01:29:47,030
2004 Indian Ocean disaster,
they really went after that.

1228
01:29:47,030 --> 01:29:51,110
But they weren't quite there,
and they didn't get to notify people.

1229
01:29:51,110 --> 01:29:55,980
So, you know, my reaction would
be that, from my part of the job

1230
01:29:55,980 --> 01:30:03,459
of forewarning, that it's the reaction of
my Japanese colleague that it’s too late.

1231
01:30:03,459 --> 01:30:07,579
- Yeah.
Okay, thank you very much.

1232
01:30:08,360 --> 01:30:14,140
- Okay, I have a question about --
you talked about the

1233
01:30:14,140 --> 01:30:18,900
shoreline along the
Pacific coast directly.

1234
01:30:18,900 --> 01:30:26,140
How much hazard is there into
Seattle and Tacoma on Puget Sound?

1235
01:30:26,140 --> 01:30:32,699
Are they basically shielded
from the things coming across

1236
01:30:32,699 --> 01:30:34,760
the Pacific
in the sound there?

1237
01:30:34,760 --> 01:30:39,820
Or will there still be water rising
to significant heights?

1238
01:30:39,820 --> 01:30:44,880
I've got a cousin living near Tacoma,
that’s the reason I ask.

1239
01:30:44,880 --> 01:30:49,090
- So the question was,
what about the hazard from --

1240
01:30:49,090 --> 01:30:53,250
in the inland waters
of Washington state?

1241
01:30:53,250 --> 01:30:55,900
And you could even extend that
to a question of,

1242
01:30:55,900 --> 01:30:58,689
what about the hazard
in San Francisco Bay?

1243
01:30:58,689 --> 01:30:59,929
- Yeah.
- Right?

1244
01:30:59,929 --> 01:31:05,550
So you know the 1964 Alaska
tsunami caused quite a bit of damage

1245
01:31:05,550 --> 01:31:10,329
inside San Francisco Bay.
And it was a case of strong currents.

1246
01:31:10,329 --> 01:31:12,599
It wasn't high water.
It was strong currents.

1247
01:31:12,599 --> 01:31:16,469
And I think a lot of the damage
was in Marin County.

1248
01:31:16,469 --> 01:31:20,119
That’s certainly a
hazard at Puget Sound.

1249
01:31:20,119 --> 01:31:23,659
There are
other hazards as well.

1250
01:31:23,659 --> 01:31:30,219
The -- perhaps the biggest one is that
shaking from a prolonged earthquake

1251
01:31:30,219 --> 01:31:35,260
like this with the bluffs of Puget Sound
could cause some of them to fail.

1252
01:31:35,260 --> 01:31:38,849
Or with the delta fronts --
the Puyallup River, the Duwamish --

1253
01:31:38,849 --> 01:31:42,469
the ones that head --
or for that matter, the Skagit --

1254
01:31:42,469 --> 01:31:45,699
the ones that head on
the Cascade volcanoes.

1255
01:31:45,699 --> 01:31:47,809
They have built
these deltas out.

1256
01:31:47,809 --> 01:31:52,440
And the experience in Alaska
in 1964 was the delta front failures

1257
01:31:52,440 --> 01:31:58,250
were responsible for the main --
well, for a lot of the fatalities

1258
01:31:58,250 --> 01:31:59,770
from the tsunami in Alaska.

1259
01:31:59,770 --> 01:32:04,239
And there was --
with ’64 Alaska,

1260
01:32:04,239 --> 01:32:10,130
it’s truly the plural -- tsunamis --
because they had -- you had the

1261
01:32:10,130 --> 01:32:15,020
open ocean tsunami with the tectonic
source of raising the sea floor and stuff.

1262
01:32:15,020 --> 01:32:18,590
But then you had these
slide-induced tsunamis, okay?

1263
01:32:18,590 --> 01:32:24,030
And so slide-induced tsunamis would
also be a concern at Puget Sound.

1264
01:32:24,030 --> 01:32:27,349
And they would
be fast-arriving, right?

1265
01:32:27,349 --> 01:32:30,199
For a tsunami generated off
the Pacific coast of Washington,

1266
01:32:30,199 --> 01:32:35,579
to get to Seattle or Portland is a matter
of probably an hour and a half or more.

1267
01:32:35,579 --> 01:32:41,679
But for the shaking to set off
a slide in Puget Sound

1268
01:32:41,679 --> 01:32:45,260
can give you the tsunami
inside Puget Sound very quickly.

1269
01:32:45,260 --> 01:32:53,389
- So is Portland at a hazard on
short notice after a major quake?

1270
01:32:53,389 --> 01:33:01,380
- So -- okay, so in the
case of Portland, there’s --

1271
01:33:01,380 --> 01:33:05,440
my impression from the geologists
and engineers in Portland is that

1272
01:33:05,440 --> 01:33:12,849
they worry a lot about ground failures
that cause damage to important facilities,

1273
01:33:12,849 --> 01:33:20,460
be they oil tank farms or bridges,
things like that, in Portland.

1274
01:33:20,460 --> 01:33:28,530
The Columbia River actually
is the site of the one known

1275
01:33:28,530 --> 01:33:34,210
historical tsunami fatality
in the state of Washington.

1276
01:33:34,210 --> 01:33:37,710
And this was the result, probably --
some say of highway construction

1277
01:33:37,710 --> 01:33:41,869
on the Oregon side in February,
or maybe just freeze/thaw,

1278
01:33:41,869 --> 01:33:46,159
in cliffs of Columbia River basalt
that crashed down one night

1279
01:33:46,159 --> 01:33:48,500
into a deep part
of the Columbia.

1280
01:33:48,500 --> 01:33:53,699
And the wall of water went over a levee,
kind of like out in the delta

1281
01:33:53,699 --> 01:33:57,989
or something, and crashed into
a couple houses, and one life was taken.

1282
01:33:57,989 --> 01:34:02,449
So, you know, that --
it is possible, in certain stretches

1283
01:34:02,449 --> 01:34:05,809
of the Columbia, to have
local waves made.

1284
01:34:05,809 --> 01:34:09,889
But in Portland,
that might be difficult.

1285
01:34:12,249 --> 01:34:19,250
- Yes, this is for my personal wellbeing,
I want to know this, okay?

1286
01:34:19,250 --> 01:34:23,000
I came from Sacramento because I
really wanted to ask you this question.

1287
01:34:23,000 --> 01:34:25,369
I am a teacher.
- Uh-oh. I read -- I read --

1288
01:34:25,369 --> 01:34:27,879
you play billiards?
[laughter]

1289
01:34:27,879 --> 01:34:30,190
- No.
And I want to --

1290
01:34:30,190 --> 01:34:33,520
I love the north coast, okay?
I love the north coast.

1291
01:34:33,520 --> 01:34:39,730
Oh, there’s George.
I liked your thing -- your lecture.

1292
01:34:39,730 --> 01:34:44,559
So when I went to -- when I go up there,
I pass all these signs, you know,

1293
01:34:44,559 --> 01:34:46,779
where you’re going down the
north coast and it’s, like,

1294
01:34:46,780 --> 01:34:49,840
leaving tsunami,
entering tsunami.

1295
01:34:49,840 --> 01:34:54,190
And I’m, like, it seems so low.
Because I look at those pictures

1296
01:34:54,190 --> 01:34:58,280
of the Tohoku earthquake,
and I’m, like, oh my gosh.

1297
01:34:58,280 --> 01:35:00,460
And when you talk to people
that live on the coast,

1298
01:35:00,460 --> 01:35:02,760
they're, like, oh, no,
it won't hit here.

1299
01:35:02,760 --> 01:35:06,260
And you’re thinking, uh, right.
You know?

1300
01:35:06,269 --> 01:35:13,529
And so my question is, are those signs --
would you trust those signs?

1301
01:35:13,529 --> 01:35:17,999
[laughter]

1302
01:35:17,999 --> 01:35:24,630
- I know the history of -- some of the
history of the signs in Washington state.

1303
01:35:24,630 --> 01:35:30,639
Some of those signs were put up before
tsunami inundation maps could be made.

1304
01:35:30,639 --> 01:35:34,179
And it was the decision of -- and I
think a good one -- of the -- but I’m

1305
01:35:34,179 --> 01:35:38,500
not an emergency manager, so this is
just me speaking as an individual.

1306
01:35:38,500 --> 01:35:43,659
I don't know anything about this topic,
but -- that it was -- it was -- that the

1307
01:35:43,659 --> 01:35:49,219
emergency manager was prudent to at
least alert people that there was a hazard.

1308
01:35:49,219 --> 01:35:52,909
And she put them in places that
were obviously vulnerable.

1309
01:35:52,909 --> 01:35:57,349
And then the maps came along.
And, as you know,

1310
01:35:57,349 --> 01:36:01,659
for the Crescent City area,
there are tsunami evacuation maps

1311
01:36:01,659 --> 01:36:02,689
that have been prepared.
- Right, right.

1312
01:36:02,689 --> 01:36:04,989
- And maybe they're on their
second generation of them.

1313
01:36:04,989 --> 01:36:06,690
I’m not sure.
Oregon is on its second

1314
01:36:06,690 --> 01:36:09,659
generation of maps.
So is Washington state.

1315
01:36:09,659 --> 01:36:14,949
And these maps help you to
identify what places are vulnerable,

1316
01:36:14,949 --> 01:36:18,809
and they point you to places
you can get to high ground.

1317
01:36:18,809 --> 01:36:24,639
The new map for Westport here
anticipates the completion

1318
01:36:24,639 --> 01:36:29,530
of the refuge structure, and it
plots that structure on the map.

1319
01:36:29,530 --> 01:36:31,719
- Okay, so that’s . . .
- You know, so, I mean,

1320
01:36:31,719 --> 01:36:34,000
they're doing that --
they're being --

1321
01:36:34,000 --> 01:36:37,339
they're trying very hard to
do this kind of stuff.

1322
01:36:37,339 --> 01:36:41,309
- Okay. And then, if it’s okay . . .
- Yeah.

1323
01:36:41,309 --> 01:36:44,639
- The tsunami that hit Tohoku,
when it came here, we all

1324
01:36:44,639 --> 01:36:48,929
watched it on TV, you know,
and it didn't look that serious.

1325
01:36:48,929 --> 01:36:52,769
The boats rocked up and down.
But it sounds like the one that

1326
01:36:52,769 --> 01:36:56,840
came from the Cascadian
that hit in Japan was worse.

1327
01:36:56,840 --> 01:36:59,309
- I don't know. You saw what
the village head man said --

1328
01:36:59,309 --> 01:37:03,159
high tide or something like.
Tsunami, could it be?

1329
01:37:03,159 --> 01:37:05,389
You know?
- Yeah.

1330
01:37:05,389 --> 01:37:08,519
- And if you read the other --
read the other accounts,

1331
01:37:08,519 --> 01:37:11,110
there’s a --
you can get this online.

1332
01:37:11,110 --> 01:37:13,280
It’s a USGS book --
Orphan Tsunami of 1700 --

1333
01:37:13,280 --> 01:37:15,960
and all those translations
are in here.

1334
01:37:15,960 --> 01:37:20,190
And you'll see that only one of the
accounts refers to it as a tsunami.

1335
01:37:20,190 --> 01:37:22,539
In only one of the accounts
is there appreciable damage --

1336
01:37:22,539 --> 01:37:28,179
20 houses -- what was it --
20 houses -- I can't remember.

1337
01:37:28,179 --> 01:37:32,690
There were a total of 33 houses,
and some of them are burned,

1338
01:37:32,690 --> 01:37:36,210
and others are actually
destroyed outright by the waves.

1339
01:37:36,210 --> 01:37:39,469
And that became one of the clues
to figure out the size of the tsunami.

1340
01:37:39,469 --> 01:37:42,539
But that’s the only place where
housing damage has

1341
01:37:42,539 --> 01:37:46,059
actually been reported in Japan
from our tsunami.

1342
01:37:46,059 --> 01:37:50,940
So it really is a diminutive version
of what was -- what was,

1343
01:37:50,940 --> 01:37:54,750
you know, overrunning that
elk processing plant

1344
01:37:54,750 --> 01:37:57,489
along the Salmon River in Oregon,
for instance.

1345
01:37:57,489 --> 01:38:00,250
- And one more.
I live in Sacramento.

1346
01:38:00,250 --> 01:38:03,639
And they keep saying that,
if the Cascadian fault ruptured,

1347
01:38:03,639 --> 01:38:08,130
that it would impact Sacramento,
and I just -- it’s awful far away.

1348
01:38:08,130 --> 01:38:11,219
- What you can do --
what you can do with that is

1349
01:38:11,219 --> 01:38:15,250
you can go to the
national seismic hazard maps.

1350
01:38:15,250 --> 01:38:20,800
And I think you have to go back
one edition to the 2008 versions.

1351
01:38:20,800 --> 01:38:23,719
And look for something
they call deaggregation.

1352
01:38:23,719 --> 01:38:28,090
And you can click on Sacramento, or
enter the ZIP code, and you'll get --

1353
01:38:28,090 --> 01:38:33,630
you'll get displayed a graph that
shows earthquake size on one axis

1354
01:38:33,630 --> 01:38:38,949
and distance from the fault
on a second axis, and earthquake and --

1355
01:38:38,949 --> 01:38:43,050
oh, contribution to the hazard
on the third -- on the sticking up.

1356
01:38:43,050 --> 01:38:47,260
It’s a 3-D graph kind of a
perspective thing. It’s pretty cool.

1357
01:38:47,260 --> 01:38:52,730
Because you can ask what the
far-away Cascadia subduction zone

1358
01:38:52,730 --> 01:38:54,769
contributes to the
hazard in Sacramento.

1359
01:38:54,769 --> 01:39:01,309
And my understanding is, from
the generation of maps before that --

1360
01:39:01,309 --> 01:39:07,170
I guess it would be 2002 -- that,
at the time they made those maps,

1361
01:39:07,170 --> 01:39:12,199
that the Cascadia zone was
the single-largest contributor

1362
01:39:12,199 --> 01:39:17,179
to hazard to buildings of
10 stories or greater in --

1363
01:39:17,180 --> 01:39:20,719
as far south as Sacramento
in the Sacramento Valley.

1364
01:39:20,719 --> 01:39:25,429
And whether that still holds with the
2008 maps, you can check for yourself.

1365
01:39:25,429 --> 01:39:27,900
Because those sorts of
estimates change.

1366
01:39:27,900 --> 01:39:30,810
- Thank you.
- Yeah.

1367
01:39:31,460 --> 01:39:36,120
- Hi. On one of your
slides a while back,

1368
01:39:36,130 --> 01:39:41,429
you had a map of the Puget Sound area
with a bunch of dots

1369
01:39:41,429 --> 01:39:43,789
for where dead tree had been found.
- Uh-huh.

1370
01:39:43,789 --> 01:39:46,699
- And I noticed one of them
was on the west -- sorry, on the

1371
01:39:46,699 --> 01:39:49,270
eastern side of the Puget Sound.
- Uh-huh.

1372
01:39:49,270 --> 01:39:53,139
- I was wondering if there had
been other areas on the eastern side

1373
01:39:53,139 --> 01:39:56,679
of the Puget Sound, within the sound,
where we had found that

1374
01:39:56,679 --> 01:39:58,210
the ground had lowered and . . .
- Yeah, I know what you mean.

1375
01:39:58,210 --> 01:40:00,030
- Yeah, it’s going to be
a lot of slides back.

1376
01:40:00,030 --> 01:40:03,349
It was the first half-hour or so.
- Yeah, we can find it.

1377
01:40:03,349 --> 01:40:05,919
- But I was just curious as to . . .
- It’s that one, right?

1378
01:40:05,919 --> 01:40:07,840
- Yeah.
Yeah, just curious as to,

1379
01:40:07,840 --> 01:40:11,070
if there’s been any others on the eastern
side of it and what that tells us.

1380
01:40:11,070 --> 01:40:14,389
- Okay, so there's a -- there’s
a really good bakery down here.

1381
01:40:14,389 --> 01:40:17,599
It’s called the Blue Heron.
[laughter]

1382
01:40:17,599 --> 01:40:20,769
And they just moved from
the low ground up to high ground.

1383
01:40:20,769 --> 01:40:23,889
[laughter]
But the Blue Heron,

1384
01:40:23,889 --> 01:40:28,750
right next to it,
has a red cedar snag.

1385
01:40:28,750 --> 01:40:31,139
And it’s got some
spruce roots in growth position,

1386
01:40:31,139 --> 01:40:34,650
and the dating that’s been done there
so far is quite permissive

1387
01:40:34,650 --> 01:40:39,039
compared with the dating of the --
of these red cedars out here.

1388
01:40:39,039 --> 01:40:42,789
But it’s consistent with
lowering of land there.

1389
01:40:42,789 --> 01:40:48,420
So if so, that’s as far inland here.
But recall the maps of Alaska with the

1390
01:40:48,420 --> 01:40:53,900
huge swaths of lowering,
and it’s a great, big, broad down warp.

1391
01:40:53,900 --> 01:40:58,980
And it wouldn't be surprising
to see it coming in there.

1392
01:40:58,980 --> 01:41:03,670
So there have been some other efforts
to look into inland effects.

1393
01:41:03,670 --> 01:41:05,630
And this is -- this is
an important thing.

1394
01:41:05,630 --> 01:41:12,260
People try to learn about how close
to the urban areas does the fault break?

1395
01:41:12,260 --> 01:41:16,949
So the fault is slanting underneath the
area of the -- of the arrow here, right?

1396
01:41:16,949 --> 01:41:21,210
And Seattle and Tacoma
and Portalnd like this,

1397
01:41:21,210 --> 01:41:24,280
so they're inland of the part
where the fault breaks.

1398
01:41:24,280 --> 01:41:27,039
And how far inland are they?
Because the closer they are,

1399
01:41:27,039 --> 01:41:29,889
the greater the ground shaking
that’s expected.

1400
01:41:29,889 --> 01:41:33,980
So this is one of the open questions
right now with Cascadia is --

1401
01:41:33,980 --> 01:41:39,480
in making these sorts of hazard maps,
is that aspect of the,

1402
01:41:39,480 --> 01:41:42,810
you know, proximity to the --
to the fault.

1403
01:41:42,810 --> 01:41:46,929
- So would we have any idea of --
like, for example, had it fallen,

1404
01:41:46,929 --> 01:41:49,460
let’s say, from one foot above
sea level to one foot below,

1405
01:41:49,460 --> 01:41:52,829
there wouldn't even need
to have been a wave, per se, right?

1406
01:41:52,829 --> 01:41:54,980
- Sorry, I didn't get the last part.
There wouldn't be a . . .

1407
01:41:54,980 --> 01:41:57,480
- If the land . . .
- Yeah, yeah.

1408
01:41:57,480 --> 01:42:00,110
- . . . where those dead trees are
had been one foot above sea level,

1409
01:42:00,110 --> 01:42:03,639
and then fell to one foot below,
you wouldn't need a wave, necessarily.

1410
01:42:03,639 --> 01:42:06,670
Do we have any idea
of knowing about that?

1411
01:42:06,670 --> 01:42:12,410
- Okay. Okay.
So the evidence -- the evidence -- the . . .

1412
01:42:15,230 --> 01:42:18,889
This is independent of tsunami.
Completely independent of tsunami.

1413
01:42:18,889 --> 01:42:23,329
There was no -- I don't think there
was a tsunami at Portage. Okay?

1414
01:42:23,329 --> 01:42:24,800
But the trees died.

1415
01:42:24,800 --> 01:42:30,500
So it's the long-lasting effect
of the relentless attack of the tides

1416
01:42:30,500 --> 01:42:35,960
that does this, okay?
And so it’s easy to get confused

1417
01:42:35,960 --> 01:42:39,650
and think that trees like this
are victims of tsunami.

1418
01:42:39,650 --> 01:42:44,170
They were probably
overrun by -- there’s . . .

1419
01:42:48,199 --> 01:42:54,309
This comes from about here.
And there’s the buried soil.

1420
01:42:54,309 --> 01:42:56,869
There's the sand sheet, and there’s
the tide flat mud above.

1421
01:42:56,869 --> 01:42:59,920
I mean, it’s -- the 1700 --
and they're probably --

1422
01:42:59,920 --> 01:43:02,519
there’s a mud layer here
and a mud layer here.

1423
01:43:02,519 --> 01:43:05,829
There were probably at least
three waves represented in this.

1424
01:43:05,829 --> 01:43:10,500
So it’s -- the 1700 tsunami almost
certainly, you know, got in there.

1425
01:43:10,500 --> 01:43:14,309
But I don't think it’s responsible for the
deaths of the trees in January, probably,

1426
01:43:14,309 --> 01:43:18,669
unless it was a really dry year, they
had enough rain to rinse the salts out.

1427
01:43:18,669 --> 01:43:20,829
- Okay, thank you.
- Yeah.

1428
01:43:20,829 --> 01:43:23,619
- Let’s take one final question.
It’s getting late.

1429
01:43:23,619 --> 01:43:25,599
And go ahead
with your question.

1430
01:43:25,600 --> 01:43:28,500
- I’m the last one, I guess.
I was wondering whether there’s

1431
01:43:28,500 --> 01:43:34,170
any concern or any activity
going on relative to the

1432
01:43:34,170 --> 01:43:39,449
tons of radioactive material
that’s buried up at Hanford.

1433
01:43:39,449 --> 01:43:42,150
- At Hanford.
There’s a lot of research

1434
01:43:42,150 --> 01:43:46,860
into faults and folds
over in that part of Washington state.

1435
01:43:46,860 --> 01:43:52,690
And that’s -- and related to that
is research on faults and folds

1436
01:43:52,690 --> 01:43:57,369
that may affect dams along the
Yakima River and its tributaries,

1437
01:43:57,369 --> 01:43:59,519
so there’s -- there are
big water supply systems

1438
01:43:59,519 --> 01:44:01,659
for farms and
whatnot over there.

1439
01:44:01,659 --> 01:44:07,630
So Bureau of Reclamation is
supporting some of that work.

1440
01:44:07,630 --> 01:44:12,360
There’s long -- there’s longstanding
interest in finding that out.

1441
01:44:12,360 --> 01:44:21,559
It’s not very easy work, but they are
identifying evidence for faultings

1442
01:44:21,559 --> 01:44:24,909
since the Missoula Floods --
the Ice Age floods --

1443
01:44:24,909 --> 01:44:28,449
on some of the -- surface rupture
on some of the faults that are

1444
01:44:28,449 --> 01:44:31,829
in the Yakima fold and thrust belt,
which is near Hanford.

1445
01:44:31,829 --> 01:44:36,320
So, you know, there are efforts
to assess the seismic hazard.

1446
01:44:36,320 --> 01:44:40,420
I don't know how that --
you know, how that relates

1447
01:44:40,420 --> 01:44:45,060
to the engineering of the --
for the waste that’s stored over there.

1448
01:44:45,060 --> 01:44:47,360
- Thank you.
It was a very interesting talk.

1449
01:44:47,360 --> 01:44:48,440
- Thank you.

1450
01:44:48,440 --> 01:44:50,520
[ Applause ]