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August 4, 2022

Title: Getting the Most out of Climate Change Scenario Planning: A Decade of Lessons Learned 

Date: Friday, August 12th at 2:00 pm Eastern

Speakers: Brian Miller (USGS North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center), Amy Symstad (USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center), and Gregor Schuurman (National Park Service Climate Change Response Program)

Bison in Yellowstone National Park’s Northern Range
Bison in Yellowstone National Park’s Northern Range, where scenario planning work is currently underway.

Resource managers are faced with stewarding natural and cultural resources under tremendous uncertainty about climate change and its impacts. Scenario planning is a tool widely used to support decision making in such situations. However, until now, a synthesis of detailed best practices and recommendations for conducting climate change scenario planning has been lacking. By reflecting on our experience as natural resource scientists and adaptation practitioners working directly with National Park Service resource managers for over a decade, we developed a generalized approach for conducting climate change scenario planning (CC SP) that is grounded in resource management priorities. In this presentation, we describe the approach as well as key management outcomes and broader lessons for applying CC SP, including insights for fostering participant engagement, considering non-climate stressors, incorporating quantitative approaches, and translating scenarios into strategic action.

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