New insight into faults in the Long Valley Caldera reduces the predicted earthquake shaking intensity

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A re-evaluation of geologic and geophysical data in Long Valley Caldera shows that two large Basin and Range faults (Hartley Springs and Hilton Creek) do not extend into the caldera, as previously thought. According to a Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast based upon 2008 data, these two major Basin and Range faults are capable of producing magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes in the Long Valley volcanic region. However, recent CalVO research published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America provides evidence that neither fault has ruptured within the caldera since its formation some 760,000 years ago. Earthquakes that do occur in the caldera are much smaller in magnitude, most likely caused by minor faults as well as ongoing volcanic resurgence.

The research by Dave Hill, Scientist Emeritus and former Scientist-in-Charge of the Long Valley Observatory (now CalVO), and Emily Montgomery-Brown, Research Geophysicist at CalVO, is the scientific basis for a new appendix to the scenario earthquake hazard report, which reduces the potential shaking hazard in the vicinity of Mammoth Lakes and Long Valley caldera. Evidence indicates that rupture along the Hartley Springs and Hilton Creek faults both end at the rim of the Long Valley Caldera. In the case of the Harley Springs fault, however, extension continues into the caldera, but it is driven by dike emplacement related to the Inyo Domes volcanic chain ("the Inyo Dike").

Those of us who love the Mammoth Lakes area are somewhat relieved to know that although it is still a geologically exciting and active place, Mammoth is slightly safer from earthquakes than previously predicted!